LogOn: Robot Jellyfish Aims to Explore the Oceans

Robot makers who want to explore the oceans are looking to one of Earth’s most successful sea creatures for design inspiration. Steve Baragona reports.

Deforestation Down in Indonesia Amid Increases Elsewhere

Deforestation rates are near record lows in Indonesia, home to the world’s third-largest rainforests.

It’s one of the few bright spots in an otherwise grim annual report, on the loss of forests worldwide, from the environmental research and policy group World Resources Institute.

Overall, the world lost 4.1 million hectares of undisturbed tropical forest last year, an area the size of Switzerland, according to WRI. That’s a 10% increase from 2021. The loss of forest released as much planet-warming carbon dioxide as all the fossil fuels burned in India in 2021.

Deforestation reverses the CO2 removal function that trees perform. It raises local temperatures and disrupts rainfall patterns.

World leaders pledged to end deforestation by the end of the decade during climate negotiations in Glasgow in 2021.

“Are we on track to halt deforestation by 2030? The short answer is a simple no,” Rod Taylor, head of WRI’s forests program, told reporters at a news conference announcing the results.

Deforestation rates

The good news from Indonesia is that government moratoriums on logging and palm oil plantations and increased fire prevention measures have kept forest losses low.

Corporate pledges to end deforestation in the palm oil supply chain also appear to be working, WRI says.

The 230,000 hectares of untouched, primary forest lost last year is a sharp decline from the 2016 peak of 930,000 hectares.

Still, “that’s a pretty big loss,” Arie Rompas, head of the forest campaign for Greenpeace Indonesia, told VOA. “The area lost is about three times the size of the capital, Jakarta.”

Deforestation is still taking place in protected areas, he noted.

Indonesia’s environment ministry released official figures Monday showing far less deforestation than WRI’s. The ministry says 104,000 hectares (256,990 acres) were lost last year, down from 113,500 hectares (280,464 acres) in 2021.

WRI says it is working with the ministry on forest monitoring but describes the partnership as “a work in progress.”

Deforestation rates also have leveled off in neighboring Malaysia, another major palm oil exporter with similar policies and pledges on deforestation. Commitments to end deforestation in the world’s two largest palm oil producers now cover more than four-fifths of their refining capacity, according to WRI.

Brazil tops forest losses

Separately, forest losses increased by 15% in Brazil. The 1.8 million hectare (4.45 million acre) decline in undisturbed forest was the largest since 2005.

Brazil was responsible for 43% of the losses worldwide.

They took place during the last year of President Jair Bolsonaro’s term. He encouraged increased logging, mining and agriculture in the Amazon rainforest.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, took over at the beginning of 2023 and has promised to reverse course.

Earlier in June, Lula released his plan to reach zero deforestation by 2030. The Brazilian space agency, INPE, reported 31% less forest loss in the first five months of 2023 compared to last year.

Experts say Lula’s efforts will face opposition from agribusiness supporters in the legislature.

The second-largest forest losses were in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Poverty, not commercial agriculture, is the leading driver of deforestation in the DRC, WRI says. Most forests are cleared for small-scale farming and production of charcoal, the main cooking fuel.

The region’s growing population is putting increasing pressure on tropical forests in the Congo Basin, the world’s second largest.

Elsewhere, Bolivia lost the third-largest area of undisturbed forest, and its losses are increasing. The country lost one-third more forest last year than in 2021.

Land clearing for soybeans and other commodity crops is mainly responsible, and Bolivia’s government backs a further increase in large-scale farming. The country is one of the few that did not sign the 2021 Glasgow pledge to end deforestation.

Four of the 10 countries with the highest rates of forest loss are in Latin America.

Commodity crops drive deforestation

Global demand for soybeans, corn, sugar, paper, timber and livestock are the main forces of deforestation worldwide.

Legislation in the European Union will soon prohibit deforestation in supply chains.

Indonesia and Malaysia call the legislation discriminatory.

But WRI’s Taylor said, “It’s an encouraging decision and hopefully it will impact on deforestation rates in the near future.”

He added, “It’s one big market, but there are other markets that haven’t moved on that kind of legislation yet.”

Rio Tuasikal contributed to this report.

New Quest Aims to Settle Debate Over Which River Is Longest – Amazon or Nile

Which is the longest river in the world, the Nile or the Amazon? The question has fueled a heated debate for years. Now, an expedition into the South American jungle aims to settle it for good.   

Using boats run on solar energy and pedal power, an international team of explorers plans to set off in April 2024 to the source of the Amazon in the Peruvian Andes, then travel nearly 7,000 kilometers (4,350 miles) across Colombia and Brazil, to the massive river’s mouth on the Atlantic.

“The main objective is to map the river and document the biodiversity” of the surrounding ecosystems, the project’s coordinator, Brazilian explorer Yuri Sanada, told AFP.   

The team also plans to make a documentary on the expedition.   

Around 10 people are known to have traveled the full length of the Amazon in the past, but none have done it with those objectives, said Sanada, who runs film production company Aventuras (Adventures) with his wife, Vera. 

Decades-old dispute

The Amazon, the pulsing aorta of the world’s biggest rainforest, has long been recognized as the largest river in the world by volume, discharging more than the Nile, the Yangtze and the Mississippi combined. 

But there is a decades-old geographical dispute over whether it or the Nile is longer, made murkier by methodological issues and a lack of consensus on a very basic question: where the Amazon starts and ends. 

The Guinness Book of World Records awards the title to the African river.

But “which is the longer is more a matter of definition than simple measurement,” it adds in a note. 

The Encyclopedia Britannica gives the length of the Nile as 6,650 kilometers (4,132 miles), to 6,400 kilometers (3,977 miles) for the Amazon, measuring the latter from the headwaters of the Apurimac River in southern Peru. 

In 2014, U.S. neuroscientist and explorer James “Rocky” Contos developed an alternative theory, putting the source of the Amazon farther away, at the Mantaro River in northern Peru. 

If accepted, that would mean the Amazon “is actually 77 kilometers longer than what geographers had thought previously,” he told AFP.  

Challenges could include alligators

Sanada’s expedition will trace both the Apurimac and Mantaro sources. 

One group, guided by Contos, will travel down the Mantaro by white-water raft. The other will travel the banks of the Apurimac on horseback with French explorer Celine Cousteau, granddaughter of legendary oceanographer Jacques Cousteau. 

At the point where the rivers converge, Sanada and two other explorers will embark on the longest leg of the journey, traveling in three custom-made, motorized canoes powered by solar panels and pedals, equipped with a sensor to measure distance.   

“We’ll be able to make a much more precise measurement,” Sanada said.   

The explorers plan to transfer the sustainable motor technology to local Indigenous groups, he added.

The expedition is backed by international groups including The Explorers Club and the Harvard map collection.  

The adventurers will traverse terrain inhabited by anacondas, alligators and jaguars — but none of that scares Sanada, he said

“I’m most afraid of drug traffickers and illegal miners,” he said.   

The boats will be outfitted with a bulletproof cabin, and the team is negotiating with authorities to obtain an armed escort for the most dangerous zones.   

If the expedition is successful, it may be replicated on the Nile. 

Sanada said the debate over the world’s longest river may never be settled. But he is glad the “race” is drawing attention to the Amazon rainforest’s natural riches and the need to protect it as one of the planet’s key buffers against climate change. 

“The Amazon is [here],” he said, “but the consequences of destroying it and the duty to preserve it are everyone’s.”

Nigerian Doctor Backs Out of Vaccine Alliance Leadership

Muhammad Ali Pate, a Harvard professor who has held top health jobs in Nigeria, has relinquished the top job at the Gavi global vaccine alliance, the organization announced Monday.

Pate, a medical doctor trained in internal medicine and infectious disease, was due to assume the helm on August 3, Gavi had announced in February, taking over from U.S. medical epidemiologist Seth Berkley, who had been in charge since 2011.

Pate informed Gavi “that he has taken an incredibly difficult decision to accept a request to return and contribute to his home country, Nigeria,” the statement said, without further details about the decision.

Gavi’s Chief Operating Officer David Marlow will instead assume the position of Interim Chief Executive Officer while a search for a new CEO continues.

The Gavi vaccine alliance is a nonprofit organization created in 2000 to provide an array of vaccines to developing countries.

Gavi says that since its inception, it has provided vaccines to more than 981 million children, “and prevented more than 16.2 million future deaths, helping to halve child mortality in 73 lower-income countries.”

Gavi has taken the lead on the COVAX initiative, alongside the World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

The global scheme has so far shipped nearly 1.9 billion COVID-19 vaccines to 146 territories, with the focus on providing donor-funded jabs to the 92 weakest economies.

Despite Health Hazards, Millions of Nigerians Still Using Solid Cooking Fuels

According to the U.N., in 2021, Nigeria had the most child deaths caused by pollution-related pneumonia in the world, at nearly 70 thousand. UNICEF says 40 percent of those deaths are a result of breathing air pollution caused by burning solid cooking fuels in the home. Timothy Obiezu has this report from Abuja, Nigeria.

Study: US Recreational Boating Gaining Steam Since Pandemic 

Market researchers have noted that since the COVID-19 pandemic started, Americans have been spending more time on the water. And that has helped keep the recreational boating industry afloat. Liliya Anisimova has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. Videographer: Aleksandr Bergan   

On This Eid al-Adha, Hard-Hit Egyptians Make Extra Sacrifice

The upcoming Eid al-Adha holiday, or the major Muslim Feast of Sacrifice, highlights the difficulties that Egypt’s most vulnerable households are facing in the country’s deepening economic crisis.

Could Australia’s Red Outback Dust Unlock Life on Mars Questions? 

Researchers from the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration are in Australia carrying out research that will help future missions to Mars. The NASA delegation is looking for the earliest signs of life on Earth that will eventually be compared to rocks brought back from Mars.

NASA officials have said that parts of the Pilbara region in Western Australia are like “stepping back in time.” Some areas date to 3.5 billion years old.

In the red Outback dust, they have found some of the earliest evidence of life on Earth — fossils of ancient microorganisms encased in rocks.

The NASA team plans to compare these terrestrial samples with those brought back from Mars to see if they have any similar characteristics. NASA says it could be well over a decade before the Martian rocks are brought to Earth.

Eric Ianson, the director of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. Monday that Australia’s red dust could yield clues about past life on the Red Planet.

“We are looking at what are called stromatolites, which are actually some of the earliest evidence of life that existed on Earth and there are fossils that are actually captured within the rock. And how this relates to Mars is that we are currently working on bringing samples back from Mars — rock samples back from Mars — and if we see similar patterns and indications, it could indicate that life actually existed in the past on Mars.”

NASA has also indicated that humans could be sent on a mission to Mars by the mid- to late 2030s, although no definite timetable has been set.

Australia has worked with the United States in space for decades, including helping to broadcast the Apollo 11 Moon landing to the world in 1969.

The Tidbinbilla facility near Canberra is the only NASA tracking station still operational in Australia.

Australian engineers and scientists will also have key roles in the Artemis II mission. They are developing a small autonomous rover to be sent to the Moon and also will establish contact with astronauts on the first crewed voyage to the lunar surface since 1972. That mission could take place as early as 2025 or 2026.

The Next Big Advance in Cancer Treatment Could Be a Vaccine

The next big advance in cancer treatment could be a vaccine.

After decades of limited success, scientists say research has reached a turning point, with many predicting more vaccines will be out in five years.

These aren’t traditional vaccines that prevent disease, but shots to shrink tumors and stop cancer from coming back. Targets for these experimental treatments include breast and lung cancer, with gains reported this year for deadly skin cancer melanoma and pancreatic cancer.

‘We’re getting something to work. Now we need to get it to work better,’ said Dr. James Gulley, who helps lead a center at the National Cancer Institute that develops immune therapies, including cancer treatment vaccines.

More than ever, scientists understand how cancer hides from the body’s immune system. Cancer vaccines, like other immunotherapies, boost the immune system to find and kill cancer cells. And some new ones use mRNA, which was developed for cancer but first used for COVID-19 vaccines.

For a vaccine to work, it needs to teach the immune system’s T cells to recognize cancer as dangerous, said Dr. Nora Disis of UW Medicine’s Cancer Vaccine Institute in Seattle. Once trained, T cells can travel anywhere in the body to hunt down danger.

‘If you saw an activated T cell, it almost has feet,’ she said. ‘You can see it crawling through the blood vessel to get out into the tissues.’

Patient volunteers are crucial to the research.

Kathleen Jade, 50, learned she had breast cancer in late February, just weeks before she and her husband were to depart Seattle for an around-the-world adventure. Instead of sailing their 46-foot boat, Shadowfax, through the Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence Seaway, she was sitting on a hospital bed awaiting her third dose of an experimental vaccine. She’s getting the vaccine to see if it will shrink her tumor before surgery.

‘Even if that chance is a little bit, I felt like it’s worth it,’ said Jade, who is also getting standard treatment.

Progress on treatment vaccines has been challenging. The first, Provenge, was approved in the U.S. in 2010 to treat prostate cancer that had spread. It requires processing a patient’s own immune cells in a lab and giving them back through IV.

There are also treatment vaccines for early bladder cancer and advanced melanoma.

Early cancer vaccine research faltered as cancer outwitted and outlasted patients’ weak immune systems, said Olja Finn, a vaccine researcher at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine.

‘All of these trials that failed allowed us to learn so much,’ Finn said.

As a result, she’s now focused on patients with earlier disease since the experimental vaccines didn’t help with more advanced patients. Her group is planning a vaccine study in women with a low-risk, noninvasive breast cancer called ductal carcinoma in situ.

More vaccines that prevent cancer may be ahead too. Decades-old hepatitis B vaccines prevent liver cancer and HPV vaccines, introduced in 2006, prevent cervical cancer.

In Philadelphia, Dr. Susan Domchek, director of the Basser Center at Penn Medicine, is recruiting 28 healthy people with BRCA mutations for a vaccine test. Those mutations increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancer. The idea is to kill very early abnormal cells, before they cause problems. She likens it to periodically weeding a garden or erasing a whiteboard.

Others are developing vaccines to prevent cancer in people with precancerous lung nodules and other inherited conditions that raise cancer risk.

‘Vaccines are probably the next big thing’ in the quest to reduce cancer deaths, said Dr. Steve Lipkin, a medical geneticist at New York’s Weill Cornell Medicine, who is leading one effort funded by the National Cancer Institute. ‘We’re dedicating our lives to that.’

People with the inherited condition Lynch syndrome have a 60% to 80% lifetime risk of developing cancer. Recruiting them for cancer vaccine trials has been remarkably easy, said Dr. Eduardo Vilar-Sanchez of MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, who is leading two government-funded studies on vaccines for Lynch-related cancers.

‘Patients are jumping on this in a surprising and positive way,’ he said.

Drugmakers Moderna and Merck are jointly developing a personalized mRNA vaccine for patients with melanoma, with a large study to begin this year. The vaccines are customized to each patient, based on the numerous mutations in their cancer tissue. A vaccine personalized in this way can train the immune system to hunt for the cancer’s mutation fingerprint and kill those cells. But such vaccines will be expensive.

‘You basically have to make every vaccine from scratch. If this wasn’t personalized, the vaccine could probably be made for pennies, just like the COVID vaccine,’ said Dr. Patrick Ott of Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston.

The vaccines under development at UW Medicine are designed to work for many patients, not just a single patient. Tests are underway in early and advanced breast cancer, lung cancer and ovarian cancer. Some results may come as soon as next year.

Todd Pieper, 56, from suburban Seattle, is participating in testing for a vaccine intended to shrink lung cancer tumors. His cancer spread to his brain, but he’s hoping to live long enough to see his daughter graduate from nursing school next year.

‘I have nothing to lose and everything to gain, either for me or for other people down the road,’ Pieper said of his decision to volunteer.

One of the first to receive the ovarian cancer vaccine in a safety study 11 years ago was Jamie Crase of nearby Mercer Island. Diagnosed with advanced ovarian cancer when she was 34, Crase thought she would die young and had made a will that bequeathed a favorite necklace to her best friend. Now 50, she has no sign of cancer and she still wears the necklace.

She doesn’t know for sure if the vaccine helped, ‘But I’m still here.’

Wildfire Smog Gives Montreal Worst Air Quality of Any Major City, Says Pollution Monitor

Forest fires in Canada left Montreal blanketed with smog on Sunday, giving it the worst air quality of any major city in the world, according to a pollution monitor.

Quebec province’s most populous city had “unhealthy” air quality according to IQAir, which tracks pollution around the globe, as hundreds of wildfires burned across the country.

Environment Canada issued smog warnings in several Quebec regions due to the fires, saying, “high concentrations of fine particulate matter are causing poor air quality and reduced visibilities,” with conditions to persist until Monday morning

The agency urged residents to avoid outdoor activities and wear face masks if they must go outside.

Outdoor pools and sports areas have been closed and multiple outside events, including concerts and sports competitions, have been cancelled due to the unhealthy smog.

“It’s really like a fog, except it’s smoke from the forest fires. It’s really hard to breathe, and it stings the eyes a bit too,” said 18-year-old Fauve Lepage Vallee, lamenting that a festival she was due to attend had been canceled.

There are 80 active forest fires in Quebec, according to Quebec’s forest fire protection agency, SOPFEU, with several growing over the weekend due to dry weather and high temperatures.

“The extent of the smoke is making it particularly difficult for air tankers and helicopters to be effective,” SOPFEU said.

However, “significant amounts” of rain are expected on Monday or Tuesday in the northwest of the province, it added.

On Wednesday, 119 French firefighters are due arrive in Quebec to relieve a contingent of their compatriots in the field since early June.

“They will also be deployed to Roberval,” 250 kilometers (150 miles) north of Quebec City, for a 21-day mission, said Stephane Caron, a spokesman for SOPFEU.

Across the country, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre lists more than 450 active fires, some 240 of which are deemed out of control.

Canada is experiencing an unprecedented year of fires, with more than 7.4 million hectares burned since the beginning of January.

Cocaine Market Booming as Meth Trafficking Spreads, UN Report Says

Cocaine demand and supply are booming worldwide, and methamphetamine trafficking is expanding beyond established markets, including in Afghanistan where the drug is now being produced, a United Nations report said Sunday.

Coca bush cultivation and total cocaine production were at record highs in 2021, the most recent year for which data is available, and the global number of cocaine users, estimated at 22 million that same year, is growing steadily, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime said in its annual World Drug Report.

Cocaine seizures have, however, grown faster than production, containing the total supply to some extent, the report said. The upper band of the estimated total supply was higher in the mid-2000s than now.

“The world is currently experiencing a prolonged surge in both supply and demand of cocaine, which is now being felt across the globe and is likely to spur the development of new markets beyond the traditional confines,” the UNODC report said.

“Although the global cocaine market continues to be concentrated in the Americas and in Western and Central Europe (with very high prevalence also in Australia), in relative terms it appears that the fastest growth, albeit building on very low initial levels, is occurring in developing markets found in Africa, Asia and South-Eastern Europe,” it said.

While almost 90% of methamphetamine seized worldwide was in two regions – East and Southeast Asia and North America – seizure data suggests those markets have stabilized at a high level, yet trafficking has increased elsewhere, such as the Middle East and West Africa, the report said.

It added that reports and seizures involving methamphetamine produced in Afghanistan suggested the drug economy was changing in that country, where 80% of the world’s illicit opium poppy, which is used to make heroin, is produced.  

“Questions remain regarding the linkages between illegal manufacture of heroin and of methamphetamine (in Afghanistan) and whether the two markets will develop in parallel or whether one will substitute the other,” it added.

Packages From China Are Surging Into US; Some Say $800 Duty-Free Limit Was Mistake

Conservatives anxious to counter America’s leading economic adversary have set their sights on a top trade priority for labor unions and progressives: cracking down on the deluge of duty-free packages coming in from China.

The changing political dynamic could have major ramifications for e-commerce businesses and consumers importing products from China valued at less than $800. It also could add to the growing tensions between the countries.

Under current U.S. law, most imports valued at less than $800 enter duty-free into the United States as long as they are packaged and addressed to individual buyers. It’s referred to as the de minimis rule. Efforts to lower the threshold amount or exclude certain countries altogether from duty-free treatment are set to become a major trade fight in this Congress.

“De minimis has become a proxy for all sorts of anxieties as it relates to China and other trade-related challenges,” said John Drake, a vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who argues that the current U.S. law should be preserved.

The rule speeds the pace of commerce and lowers costs for consumers. It also allows U.S. Customs and Border Protection to focus its resources on the bigger-ticket items that generate more tariff revenue for the federal government.

The volume of products coming into the U.S. that benefit from the de minimis rule has soared in recent years. Congress raised the U.S. government’s threshold for expedited, duty-free treatment from $200 to $800 in 2016.

The volume of such imports has since risen from about 220 million packages that year to 771 million in 2021 — with China accounting for about 60%, according to the government — and 685 million last year.

“I think everybody’s got to kind of wrap their head around what kind of mistake this was,” Robert Lighthizer, the former U.S. trade representative during the Trump administration, told a House panel last month. “Nobody dreamt this would ever happen. Now we have packages coming in, 2 million packages a day, almost all from China. We have no idea what’s in them. We don’t really know what the value is.”

Lighthizer urged Congress to get rid of the de minimis rule altogether, or take it to a much lower amount, say $50 or $100. He said foreign companies are taking advantage of the “loophole” and “putting people out of work in stores; they’re putting people out of work in manufacturing.”

Last year, House Democrats pushed to prohibit Chinese-made goods from benefiting from the special treatment for lower-cost goods. That move was part of a larger measure that boosted investments in semiconductor manufacturing and research.

In the rush to get a bill passed before the 2022 elections, the Biden administration and Democratic leaders jettisoned provisions without bipartisan buy-in. The trade provision was opposed by important U.S. business groups and key Republican members of Congress, so it didn’t make the final bill.

Fast forward just a few months and it’s clear the political dynamic has shifted — and quickly.

In its first set of recommendations, a new House committee focused exclusively on China called for legislation that would reduce the threshold for duty-free shipments into the U.S. with a particular focus on “foreign adversaries, including the (People’s Republic of China.)”

The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said that exploiting the $800 threshold may be a major avenue through which Chinese companies selling directly to American consumers can circumvent U.S. law designed to prevent the sale of goods made with forced labor. The committee also said Customs and Border Protection “could not reasonably scrutinize” goods sent under the $800 threshold for forced labor concerns because of the sheer number of products coming in.

The committee is most concerned about retailers Temu and Shein, which ship directly to consumers in the U.S. In a report released Thursday, it said the two companies alone are likely responsible for more than 30% of all de minimis shipments entering the U.S. each day, or nearly 600,000 a day last year.

The committee also has competitiveness concerns. It points out that U.S. retailers such as Gap and H&M paid $700 million and $205 million in import duties, respectively, in 2022. In contrast, virtually all of the goods sold by Temu and Shein are shipped using the de minimis exception in which the importer pays no duty.

Committees with jurisdiction over trade are also signaling a new mindset. Last year, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, Texas Rep. Kevin Brady, since retired, warned against what he called “hasty changes in reasonable de minimis limits.”

But the Republican now leading the House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, said he wants to “have a lot of conversations” about the $800 threshold.

“Basically, when you’re looking at $800 or less, that’s a free-trade agreement with anyone. And you’re looking at millions of products that come in per day. We need to look at it,” Smith said.

Meanwhile, the Senate has some bills on the issue, which were just introduced this month.

One, from Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., would prevent the expedited, tariff-free treatment of imports from certain countries, most notably China and Russia.

The other, from Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., not only similarly targets China and Russia, but would affect other trade partners. It would do so by reducing the threshold for duty-free treatment to the amount that other nations use.

For example, taking a country like Belgium, which uses the European Union threshold of 150 euros, or about $165 currently – then the U.S. would reciprocate and use that same amount when determining whether goods coming in from Belgium get duty-free and expedited treatment.

Cassidy said it was former President Donald Trump who “really reframed the argument” for Republicans when it comes to trade with China.

“He pointed out that, through a variety of mechanisms, they are taking jobs, not because they are out-competing us, but because they are subsidizing, because they are using forced labor, that sort of thing,” Cassidy said.

In early 2022, when Congress was considering putting the de minimis trade provision in the semiconductor bill, several business groups led by the Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers wrote congressional leaders urging them to keep it out. They said the changes would “impose sweeping costs on American businesses, workers and consumers, add new inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy, and exacerbate ongoing supply chain disruptions at U.S. ports.”

Drake said that cutting back the threshold not only would represent a big tax increase for many U.S. small businesses, but many would have to hire a customs broker to process their shipments.

“There’s a reason Congress raised the level back in 2016,” Drake said. “They knew in addition to it being a competitive advantage for the U.S. business community, they also recognized that collecting duties on these low-value shipments, you know, really wasn’t worth the trouble.”

Priced Out of Health Care, Some Iraqis Turn to Natural Remedies

When a pharmacist in Iraq told Umm Mohammed her prescription for a skin ailment would cost about $611, she turned to cheaper natural remedies as some of her relatives had done.

In an herbal remedy shop, the 34-year-old mother-of-two found a treatment eight times cheaper. “Pharmacies are a disaster at the moment, poor people turn to medicinal herbs because of the prices,” she said. “Who can afford this? Should one die? So you turn to medicinal herbs.”

Ibrahim al-Jabouri, the shop’s owner and a professor of pharmacology, told Reuters that he is receiving customers suffering from various health issues, such as skin diseases, bowel troubles, colon infections or hair loss.

While some Iraqis choose alternative treatments out of conviction, others have no other choice as they can’t afford the cost of conventional medicines.

“The economic situation the country is passing through means that the cost of medicine is hard to bear, especially for those with a limited income,” said Dr. Haider Sabah, who heads Iraq’s national center for herbal medicine, a regulatory state body affiliated to the Ministry of Health.

Iraq’s health care system, once one of the best in the Middle East, has been wrecked by conflict, international sanctions, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and rampant corruption.

Although public medical services are free of charge, a lack of medicines, equipment and adequate services mean citizens often need to turn to the more expensive private sector.

In recent years, Sabah has seen more herbal centers open in the capital, Baghdad. There are now 460 establishments with a permit to sell herbal medicines, up from 350 in 2020, according to his database.

Standards vary greatly, from shops selling neatly packaged and licensed products in Baghdad’s better-off neighborhoods to more traditional herbologists mixing plants scooped out of jars in front of customers.

“I inherited the job,” said Mohammed Sobhi, who followed in the footsteps of his brother and has sold remedies since the 1980s.

“The ones who can’t afford medicine don’t go to the doctor to begin with,” he added.

But replacing medical prescriptions with herbal products can be dangerous and result in harm for patients if not administered properly, said physician Ali Naser.

He recalled the case of a patient who had replaced his prescription with an herbal treatment and “reached the point of what we doctors refer to as diabetic ketoacidosis and the patient had to be admitted to the ICU,” Naser said.

At the heart of the problem is Iraq’s failure to establish an adequate medical system or regulatory framework for the country’s multitude of health service providers, he added.

According to Sabah, inspection teams monitoring establishments selling herbal medicines have closed down for serious violations since 2019. “Most of the violations detected by the inspection teams are corrected,” he said.

Investigation of Doomed Submersible Underway After Deep-Sea Catastrophe

The frantic search for a missing submersible craft in the North Atlantic Ocean came to an end Thursday following news of the craft’s destruction at sea. All five aboard the Titan died as they descended toward the shipwrecked remains of the Titanic. Now investigators want to know why. VOA’s Arash Arabasadi has the latest.

Pakistan’s Parliament Approves Revised Budget to Clinch IMF Deal 

Pakistan’s parliament on Sunday approved the government’s 2023-24 budget which was revised to meet International Monetary Fund conditions in a last ditch effort to secure the release of more bailout funds.

The IMF in mid-June expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s initial budget, saying it was a missed opportunity to broaden the tax base in a more progressive way.

The revised budget was approved a day after Finance Minister Ishaq Dar introduced new taxes and expenditure cuts.

“The (finance) bill is passed,” House Speaker Raja Pervaiz Ashraf said in a live TV broadcast on Sunday.

With currency reserves barely enough to cover one month’s imports, Pakistan is facing an acute balance of payment crisis, which analysts say could spiral into a debt default if the IMF funds do not come through.

There are five days to go before the $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreed in 2019 expires on June 30. The IMF has to review whether to release some of the $2.5 billion still pending to Pakistan before then. The tranche has been stalled since November.

Dar also announced on Saturday a number of other changes, including raising a petroleum levy and lifting of all restrictions on imports, which has been one of the major concerns of the IMF as part of its fiscal tightening measures for the South Asian economy.

The budget revision came after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on the sidelines of a global financing summit in Paris last week, followed by a marathon three-days of virtual talks between the two sides.

Under the $6.5 billion EFF’s ninth review, negotiated earlier this year, Pakistan has desperately been trying to secure the IMF funds, which are crucial to unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing for the debt-ridden country.

As Fuel Taxes Plummet, States Weigh Charging by the Mile Instead of the Tank

Evan Burroughs has spent eight years touting the virtues of an Oregon pilot program charging motorists by the distance their vehicle travels rather than the gas it guzzles, yet his own mother still hasn’t bought in.

Margaret Burroughs, 85, said she has no intention of inserting a tracking device on her Nissan Murano to record the miles she drives to get groceries or attend needlepoint meetings. She figures it’s far less hassle to just pay at the pump, as Americans have done for more than a century.

“It’s probably a good thing, but on top of everybody else’s stress today, it’s just one more thing,” she said of Oregon’s first-in-the-nation initiative, which is run by the state transportation department where her son serves as a survey analyst.

Burroughs’ reluctance exemplifies the myriad hurdles U.S. states face as they experiment with road usage charging programs aimed at one day replacing motor fuel taxes, which are generating less each year, in part due to fuel efficiency and the rise of electric cars.

The federal government is about to pilot its own such program, funded by $125 million from the infrastructure measure President Biden signed in November 2021.

So far, only three states — Oregon, Utah and Virginia — are generating revenue from road usage charges, despite the looming threat of an ever-widening gap between states’ gas tax proceeds and their transportation budgets. Hawaii will soon become the fourth. Without action, the gap could reach $67 billion by 2050 due to fuel efficiency alone, Boston-based CDM Smith estimates.

Many states have implemented stopgap measures, such as imposing additional taxes or registration fees on electric vehicles and, more recently, adding per-kilowatt-hour taxes to electricity accessed at public charging stations.

Last year, Colorado began adding a 27-cent tax to home deliveries from Amazon and other online retailers to help fund transportation projects. Some states also are testing electronic tolling systems.

But road usage charges — also known as mileage-based user fees, distance-based fees or vehicle-miles-traveled taxes — are attracting the bulk of the academic attention, research dollars and legislative activity.

Doug Shinkle, transportation program director at the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures, predicts that after some 20 years of anticipation, more than a decade of pilot projects and years of voluntary participation, states will soon need to make the programs mandatory.

“The impetus at this point is less about collecting revenue than about establishing these systems, working out the kinks, getting the public comfortable with it, expanding awareness around it,” he said.

Electric car sales in the U.S. rose from just 0.1% of total car sales in 2011 to 4.6% in 2021, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. S&P Global Mobility forecasts they will make up 40% of the sales by 2030, while other projections are even rosier.

Patricia Hendren, executive director of the Eastern Transportation Coalition, said figuring out how to account for multistate trips is particularly important in the eastern U.S., where states are smaller and closer together than those in the West. Virginia’s program, launched in 2022, is already the largest in the nation and will provide valuable lessons, she said. 

Hendren’s organization, a 17-state partnership that researches transportation safety and technology innovations, participated in one of the earliest pilot projects and eight others since. The biggest hurdle, she said, is to inform the public about the diminishing returns from the gas tax that has long paid for roads.

“This is about the relationship between the people who are using our roads and bridges and how we’re paying for it,” Hendren said. “We’ve been doing it one way for 100 years, and that way is not going to work anymore.”

Eric Paul Dennis, a transportation analyst at the Citizens Research Council of Michigan, said the failure of states to convert years of research into even one fully functional, mandatory program by now raises questions about whether road usage charging can really work.

“There’s no program design that I have seen that I think can be implemented at scale in a way that is publicly acceptable,” he said. “That doesn’t mean that a program can’t be designed to do so, but I feel like if you can’t even conceive of the program architecture that seems like something that would work, you probably shouldn’t put too much faith in it.”

Indeed, a chicken-and-egg dispute over how to proceed in Washington state has stymied road usage charging efforts there.

Lawmakers passed a bill last month that would have begun early steps toward a program by allowing collection of motorists’ odometer readings on a voluntary basis. Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee vetoed the measure, though, arguing that Washington needs a program in place before starting to collect citizens’ personal data.

States also must grapple with the social and environmental implications of their plans for replacing the gas tax, said Asha Weinstein Agrawal, director of the National Transportation Finance Center at San Jose State University’s Mineta Transportation Institute.

The institute has conducted national surveys every year since 2010 and found growing support for mileage-based fees, special rates for low-income drivers and rates tied to how much pollution a vehicle generates, she said.

Weinstein Agrawal said public policy, and the way transportation is funded, often fails to reflect states’ growing emphasis on curbing carbon emissions as a way to deal with climate change.

“To switch over to a system that makes it cheaper to drive a gas guzzler and more expensive to drive a Prius,” she said, “seems both symbolically problematic and to be sending, in the most literal way, the wrong economic incentives to people.”

Evan Burroughs said his 85-year-old father, Hank, who drives an electric car, avoids paying significant vehicle registration fees by participating in Oregon’s program, while Burroughs himself has paid an extra dollar or two each month for his Subaru Outback.

“To me, that’s worth it to be part of the experiment,” he said, “and to know I’m paying my fair share for the roads.” 

‘Street Vet’ Seeks Out California’s Homeless to Care for Their Pets

An elevated train clangs along tracks above Dr. Kwane Stewart as the veterinarian makes his way through a chain link gate to ask a man standing near a parked RV whether he might know of any street pets in need.

Michael Evans immediately goes for his 11-month-old pit bull, Bear, his beloved companion living beneath the rumbling San Francisco Bay Area commuter trains.

“Focus. Sit. That’s my boy,” Evans instructs the high-energy pup as he eagerly accepts Stewart’s offer.

A quick check of the dog reveals a moderate ear infection that could have made Bear so sick in a matter of weeks he might have required sedation. Instead, right there, Dr. Stewart applies a triple treatment drop of antibiotic, anti-fungal and steroids that should start the healing process.

“This is my son right here, my son. He’s my right-hand man,” an emotional Evans says of Bear, who shares the small RV in Oakland. “It’s a blessing, really.”

“The Street Vet,” as Stewart is known, has been supporting California’s homeless population and their pets for almost a decade, ever since he spontaneously helped a man with a flea-infested dog outside of a convenience store. Since then, Stewart regularly walks the heart of Los Angeles’ infamous Skid Row, giving him a glimpse into the state’s homelessness crisis — and how much they cherish and depend on their pets.

After treating Bear, Stewart hands Evans, a Louisiana transplant, a list of the medicine he provided along with contact information in case the dog needs further treatment. Stewart always promises to cover all expenses.

“It was a good catch,” Stewart said before heading out on his way to the next stop, in West Oakland.

California is home to nearly a third of the nation’s homeless population, according to federal data. About two-thirds of California’s homeless population is unsheltered, meaning they live outside, often packed into encampments in major cities and along roadways. Nationally, up to 10% of homeless people have pets, according to an estimate from the advocacy group Pets of the Homeless. Stewart believes that number is greater.

Homeless shelters often don’t allow pets, forcing people to make heart-wrenching decisions. Stewart sees it as his mission to help as many of them as he can.

A 52-year-old former college hurdler at New Mexico now living in San Diego, Stewart is a lifelong animal lover who grew up in Texas and New Mexico trying to save strays — or at least feed and care for them. He founded Project Street Vet, a nonprofit charity dedicated to helping homeless pets. Stewart funded the group himself for years, saving a chunk of his paycheck before later gaining sponsors and donors.

There’s plenty of heartbreak in Stewart’s work, too. He once performed emergency surgery on a pregnant chihuahua, and the two puppies didn’t make it. But more often than not these pet owners are beyond grateful for Stewart’s kindness. He guesses that maybe 1 in 25 times someone turns down his help.

Stewart hollers “Hello?” outside tents, makeshift structures or campers. He can usually tell there’s a pet if he sees a dog bowl or animal toy. He purposely wears his navy scrub top with his name on it, so no one mistakes him for animal control or other authorities and feels threatened.

“People are reticent, they don’t always know why I’m coming up to them. If they’re going to you to beg or panhandle, it’s different but if you come up on them they don’t know if you’re law enforcement or you have an agenda,” he said, “so I do take it very slow and I’ll announce myself from afar.”

Approaching Misty Fancher to see if her pit bull, Addie – purchased at a nearby gas station for $200 — might need shots, Stewart offers, “Can she have treats so we can make friends?”

“Sometimes I pull over and just talk,” Stewart explained.

Addie is the first pet Fancher has had as an adult and provides the 42-year-old with some comfort that she is safe living in a relatively unstable neighborhood of Oakland.

“She’s a very good girl,” Fancher said. “She keeps a lot of trouble away. She protects me. She’ll bite someone if they act aggressive or anything toward me. She has before. But she just discourages them from even trying.”

Stewart notices a puncture on the dog’s paw to monitor and also gives her a rabies shot, writing out a certificate for Fancher to keep as proof her dog is vaccinated. He leaves her with tablets for de-worming, treatments for fleas and ticks and — as usual — his contact information.

A little while later, Stewart stops on the outskirts of a park nearby. He walks the perimeter and encounters an RV owned by Eric Clark, who has lived in the same downtown spot for seven years. He has a male bulldog, pregnant pit bull and another pregnant Doberman.

“It’s hard to get to the vet,” Clark said. “I appreciate you. They’re family.”

Stewart is happy he can make a small difference like this with a largely misunderstood community. He strives to treat every person on the streets with the same professionalism and care as he would a patient at his veterinary clinic. His mantra: no judgment, just help.

“They live in the shadows. They live amongst us but not with us,” he said. ” … It is really rewarding. It gets to you a little bit. When they tear up about the tough times they’ve had, you try to care for them, support them.”

Flood of Packages from China Prompts Congress to Look at Duty-Free Limit

Conservatives eager to counter America’s leading economic adversary have set their sights on a top trade priority for labor unions and progressives: cracking down on the deluge of duty-free packages coming in from China.

The changing political dynamic could have major ramifications for e-commerce businesses and consumers importing products from China valued at less than $800. It also could add to the growing tensions between the countries.

Under current U.S. law, most imports valued at less than $800 enter duty-free into the United States as long as they are packaged and addressed to individual buyers. It’s referred to as the de minimis rule. Efforts to lower the threshold amount or exclude certain countries altogether from duty-free treatment are set to become a major trade fight in this Congress.

“De minimis has become a proxy for all sorts of anxieties as it relates to China and other trade-related challenges,” said John Drake, a vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, who argues that the current U.S. law should be preserved.

The rule speeds the pace of commerce and lowers costs for consumers. It also allows U.S. Customs and Border Protection to focus its resources on the bigger-ticket items that generate more tariff revenue for the federal government.

The volume of products coming into the U.S. that benefit from the de minimis rule has soared in recent years. Congress raised the U.S. government’s threshold for expedited, duty-free treatment from $200 to $800 in 2016.

The volume of such imports has since risen from about 220 million packages that year to 771 million in 2021 — with China accounting for about 60%, according to the government — and 685 million last year.

“I think everybody’s got to kind of wrap their head around what kind of mistake this was,” Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative during the Trump administration, told a House panel last month. “Nobody dreamt this would ever happen. Now we have packages coming in, 2 million packages a day, almost all from China. We have no idea what’s in them. We don’t really know what the value is.”

Lighthizer urged Congress to get rid of the de minimis rule altogether, or reduce it to a much lower amount, say $50 or $100. He said foreign companies are taking advantage of the threshold and “putting people out of work in stores, they’re putting people out of work in manufacturing.”

Last year, House Democrats pushed to prohibit Chinese-made goods from benefiting from the special treatment for lower-cost goods. That move was part of a larger measure that boosted investments in semiconductor manufacturing and research.

In the rush to get a bill passed before the 2022 elections, the Biden administration and Democratic leaders jettisoned provisions without bipartisan buy-in. The trade provision was opposed by important U.S. business groups and key Republican members of Congress, so it didn’t make the final bill.

Fast forward just a few months and it’s clear the political dynamic has shifted — and quickly.

In its first set of recommendations, a new House committee focused exclusively on China called for legislation that would reduce the threshold for duty-free shipments into the U.S. with a particular focus on “foreign adversaries, including the (People’s Republic of China.)”

The Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party said that exploiting the $800 threshold may be a major avenue through which Chinese companies selling directly to American consumers can circumvent U.S. law designed to prevent the sale of goods made with forced labor. The committee also said Customs and Border Protection “could not reasonably scrutinize” goods sent under the $800 threshold for forced labor concerns because of the sheer number of products coming in.

The committee is most concerned about retailers Temu and Shein, which ship directly to consumers in the U.S. In a report released Thursday, it said the two companies alone are likely responsible for more than 30% of all de minimis shipments entering the U.S. each day, or nearly 600,000 a day last year.

The committee also has competitiveness concerns. It points out that U.S. retailers such as Gap and H&M paid $700 million and $205 million in import duties, respectively, in 2022. In contrast, virtually all of the goods sold by Temu and Shein are shipped using the de minimis exception in which the importer pays no duty.

Committees with jurisdiction over trade are also signaling a new mindset. Last year, the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, Texas Rep. Kevin Brady, since retired, warned against what he called “hasty changes in reasonable de minimis limits.”

But the Republican now leading the House Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, said he wants to “have a lot of conversations” about the $800 threshold.

“Basically, when you’re looking at $800 or less, that’s a free-trade agreement with anyone. And you’re looking at millions of products that come in per day. We need to look at it,” Smith said.

Meanwhile, the Senate has some bills on the issue, which were just introduced this month.

One, from Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., would prevent the expedited, tariff-free treatment of imports from certain countries, most notably China and Russia.

The other, from Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., not only similarly targets China and Russia, but would affect other trade partners. It would do so by reducing the threshold for duty-free treatment to the amount that other nations use.

For example, if another country, say Belgium, which uses the European Union threshold of 150 euros, or about $165 currently, then the U.S. would reciprocate and use that same amount when determining whether goods coming in from Belgium get duty-free and expedited treatment.

Drake, of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said that cutting back the threshold not only would represent a big tax increase for many U.S. small businesses, but many would have to hire a customs broker to process their shipments.

“There’s a reason Congress raised the level back in 2016,” he said. “They knew in addition to it being a competitive advantage for the U.S. business community, they also recognized that collecting duties on these low-value shipments, you know, really wasn’t worth the trouble.”

Want a Climate-friendly Flight? It’s Going to Take a While and Cost You More

When it comes to flying, going green may cost you more. And it’s going to take a while for the strategy to take off. 

Sustainability was a hot topic this week at the Paris Air Show, the world’s largest event for the aviation industry, which faces increasing pressure to reduce the climate-changing greenhouse gases that aircraft spew. 

Even the massive orders at the show got an emissions-reduction spin: Airlines and manufacturers said the new planes will be more fuel-efficient than the ones they replace. 

But most of those planes will burn conventional, kerosene-based jet fuel. Startups are working feverishly on electric-powered aircraft, but they won’t catch on as quickly as electric vehicles. 

“It’s a lot easier to pack a heavy battery into a vehicle if you don’t have to lift it off the ground,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University. 

That means sustainable aviation fuel has become the industry’s best hope to achieve its promise of net zero emissions by 2050. Aviation produces 2% to 3% of worldwide carbon emissions, but its share is expected to grow as travel increases and other industries become greener. 

Sustainable fuel, however, accounts for just 0.1% of all jet fuel. Made from sources like used cooking oil and plant waste, SAF can be blended with conventional jet fuel but costs much more. 

Suppliers are “going to be able to kind of set the price,” Molly Wilkinson, an American Airlines vice president, said at the air show. “And we fear that at that point, that price eventually is going to trickle down to the passenger in some form of a ticket price.” 

With such a limited supply, critics say airlines are making overly ambitious promises and exaggerating how quickly they can ramp up the use of SAF. The industry even has skeptics: Nearly one-third of aviation sustainability officers in a GE Aerospace survey doubt the industry will hit its net zero goal by 2050. 

Delta Air Lines is being sued in U.S. federal court by critics who say the carrier falsely bills itself as the world’s first carbon-neutral airline, and that Delta’s claim rests on carbon offsets that are largely bogus. The Atlanta-based airline says the charges are “without legal merit.” 

Across the Atlantic, a consumer group known by its French acronym, BEUC, filed a complaint this week with the European Union’s executive arm, accusing 17 airlines of greenwashing. 

The group says airlines are misleading consumers and violating rules on unfair commercial practices by encouraging customers to pay extra to help finance development of SAF and offset future carbon emissions created by flying. 

In one case, the group’s researchers found Air France charging up to 138 euros ($150) for the green option. 

“Sustainable aviation fuels, they are indeed the biggest technological potential to decarbonize the aviation sector, but the main problem … is that they are not available,” said Dimitri Vergne, a senior policy officer at BEUC. 

“We know that before the end of the next decade — at least — they won’t be available in massive quantities” and won’t be the main source of fuel for planes, Vergne added. 

Producers say SAF reduces greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80%, compared with regular jet fuel, over its life cycle. 

Airlines have been talking about becoming greener for years. They were rattled by the rise of “flight shaming,” a movement that encourages people to find less-polluting forms of transportation — or reduce travel altogether. 

The issue gained urgency this year when European Union negotiators agreed on new rules requiring airlines to use more sustainable fuel starting in 2025 and rising sharply in later years. 

The United States is pushing incentives instead of mandates. 

A law signed last year by President Joe Biden will provide tax breaks for developing cleaner jet fuel, but one of the credits will expire in just two years. Wilkinson, the American Airlines executive, said that was too short to entice sustainable fuel producers and that the credit should be extended by 10 years or longer. 

The International Air Transport Association, an airline trade group, estimates that SAF could contribute 65% of the emissions reductions needed for the industry to hit its 2050 net-zero goal. 

But very few flights are powered by SAF because of the limited supply and infrastructure. 

Just before the Paris Air Show opened, President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would contribute $218 million toward a $1.1 billion plant to make SAF. 

Many airlines have touted investments in SAF producers such as World Energy, which has a plant in Paramount, California, and Finland’s Neste. 

United Airlines plans to triple its use of SAF this year, to 10 million gallons — but it burned 3.6 billion gallons of fuel last year. 

Some see sustainable fuel as a bridge to cleaner technologies, including larger electric planes or aircraft powered by hydrogen. But packing enough power to run a large electric plane would require a fantastic leap in battery technology. 

Hydrogen must be chilled and stored somewhere — it couldn’t be carried in the wings of today’s planes, as jet fuel is. 

“Hydrogen sounds like a good idea. The problem is the more you look into the details, the more you realize it’s an engineering challenge but also an economics challenge,” Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace consultancy, said at the Paris Air Show. “It’s within the realm of possibility, (but) not for the next few decades.” 

Lean Green Flying Machines Take Wing in Paris, Heralding Transport Revolution

Just a dot on the horizon at first, the bug-like and surprisingly quiet electrically-powered craft buzzes over Paris and its traffic snarls, treating its doubtless awestruck passenger to privileged vistas of the Eiffel Tower and the city’s signature zinc-grey rooftops before landing him or her with a gentle downward hover. And thus, if all goes to plan, could a new page in aviation history be written.

After years of dreamy and not always credible talk of skies filled with flying, nonpolluting electric taxis, the aviation industry is preparing to deliver a future that it says is now just around the corner.

Capitalizing on its moment in the global spotlight, the Paris region is planning for a small fleet of electric flying taxis to operate on multiple routes when it hosts the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games next summer. Unless aviation regulators in China beat Paris to the punch by greenlighting a pilotless taxi for two passengers under development there, the French capital’s prospective operator — Volocopter of Germany — could be the first to fly taxis commercially if European regulators give their OK.

Volocopter CEO Dirk Hoke, a former top executive at aerospace giant Airbus, has a VVIP in mind as his hoped-for first Parisian passenger — none other than French President Emmanuel Macron.

“That would be super amazing,” Hoke said, speaking this week at the Paris Air Show, where he and other developers of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft — or eVTOLs for short — competed with industry heavyweights for attention.

“He believes in the innovation of urban air mobility,” Hoke said of Macron. “That would be a strong sign for Europe to see the president flying.”

But with Macron aboard or not, those pioneering first flights would still be just small steps for the nascent industry that has giant leaps to make before flying taxis are muscling out competitors on the ground.

The limited power of battery technology restricts the range and number of paying passengers they can carry, so eVTOL hops are likely to be short and not cheap at the outset.

And while the vision of simply beating city traffic by zooming over it is enticing, it also is dependent on advances in airspace management. Manufacturers of eVTOLs aim in the coming decade to unfurl fleets in cities and on more niche routes for luxury passengers, including the French Riviera. But they need technological leaps so flying taxis don’t crash into each other and all the other things already congesting the skies or expected to take to them in very large numbers — including millions of drones.

Starting first on existing helicopter routes, “we’ll continue to scale up using AI, using machine-learning to make sure that our airspace can handle it,” said Billy Nolen of Archer Aviation Inc. It aims to start flying between downtown Manhattan and Newark’s Liberty Airport in 2025. That’s normally a 1-hour train or old-fashioned taxi ride that Archer says its sleek, electric 4-passenger prototype could cover in under 10 minutes.

Nolen was formerly acting head of the Federal Aviation Administration, the U.S. regulator that during his time at the agency was already working with NASA on technology to safely separate flying taxis. Just as Paris is using its Olympic Games to test flying taxis, Nolen said the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics offer another target for the industry to aim for and show that it can fly passengers in growing numbers safely, cleanly and affordably.

“We’ll have hundreds, if not thousands, of eVTOLs by the time you get to 2028,” he said in an interview with The Associated Press at the Paris show.

The “very small” hoped-for experiment with Volocopter for the Paris Games is “great stuff. We take our hats off to them,” he added. “But by the time we get to 2028 and beyond … you will see full-scale deployment across major cities throughout the world.”

Yet even on the cusp of what the industry portrays as a revolutionary new era kicking off in the city that spawned the French Revolution of 1789, some aviation analysts aren’t buying into visions of eVTOLs becoming readily affordable, ubiquitous and convenient alternatives to ride-hailing in the not-too-distant future.

And even among eVTOL developers who bullishly talked up their industry’s prospects at the Paris show, some predicted that rivals will run dry of funding before they bring prototypes to market.

Morgan Stanley analysts estimate the industry could be worth $1 trillion by 2040 and $9 trillion by 2050 with advances in battery and propulsion technology. Almost all of that will come after 2035, analysts say, because of the difficulty of getting new aircraft certified by U.S. and European regulators.

“The idea of mass urban transit remains a charming fantasy of the 1950s,” said Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace consultancy.

“The real problem is still that mere mortals like you and I don’t get routine or exclusive access to $4 million vehicles. You and I can take air taxis right now. It’s called a helicopter.”

Still, electric taxis taking to Paris’ skies as Olympians are going faster, higher and stronger could have the power to surprise — pleasantly so, Volocopter hopes.

One of the five planned Olympic routes would land in the heart of the city on a floating platform on the spruced-up River Seine. Developers point out that ride-hailing apps and E-scooters also used to strike many customers as outlandish. And as with those technologies, some are betting that early adopters of flying taxis will prompt others to try them, too.

“It will be a total new experience for the people,” said Hoke, Volocopter’s CEO. “But twenty years later someone looks back at what changed based on that and then they call it a revolution. And I think we are at the edge of the next revolution.”