Month: October 2023

China’s BRI Brings Roads, Rails and Debt to Africa

WPbizLeave a comment

Some 150 countries, many of them in Africa, have signed on to China’s 10-year-old Belt and Road Initiative, also known as the BRI. And while the multibillion-dollar project has helped bring roads, rails and infrastructure to many poor countries, it has also left some of those countries saddled with debt.

In Kenya, for example, the Standard Gauge Railway, or SGR, which debuted six years ago, was hailed by Kenyan officials as one of the biggest and most successful local infrastructure projects since the late 1800s.

Travel time from Mombasa to Nairobi used to be up to 10 hours. Now, it takes five to six.

“If you are a businessman, you are going for an interview, it saves you time,” rider Denis Ombuna told VOA last week as he got off the train at the Syokimau Nairobi Terminus station.

Another rider, Dickson Okong’o, complained the seats are not comfortable in economy class but said the train is a safe mode of transport and the scenery is wonderful. “When I was coming today, I was able to see an antelope, an elephant, a zebra. … Sometimes I have to go to Nat Geo [TV] to watch them,” he said.

Kenya borrowed some $5 billion from China to build railway lines connecting the port city of Mombasa to Nairobi and Nairobi to Naivasha.

The lines are part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy. The global infrastructure, trade and telecommunications project includes the goal of connecting Kenya to Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan.

“The good side is it’s a framework for transportation: transportation of goods, transportation of cargo,” Kenyan economist Victor Kimosop told VOA.

But Kimosop said some elements of the project could have been done differently.

“I wish those responsible for SGR would’ve looked at the repayment,” he said. “It’s a massive investment project … to have repayment being done in 20, 30 years. That was quite ambitious. … The other thing is also our model of development, on compensation. It makes development very expensive … and it also opens up room for corruption.”

During its construction, other critics of the project protested its potential impact on wildlife. A part of the railway cuts through the Nairobi National Park.

On Friday, Kenya Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua told a local radio program that when President William Ruto travels to China later this month, he will ask Beijing for an additional $1 billion loan to complete other stalled road construction projects. Ruto’s plan will also include a request to lengthen the maturity periods of existing loans.

African nations were viewed as natural participants in BRI for a number of reasons, said David Sacks, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

“Africa’s population is growing significantly, and there’s a need on the continent for more infrastructure, and China has the experience and the expertise in its view to provide the roads, railways and ports that African countries are looking for,” he told VOA. “From the Chinese perspective, Africa is desirable because it wants to secure input for its manufacturing sector and, when it looks around the world, a lot of these copper, cobalt or other minerals are found in Africa.”

Countries such as Ethiopia and Zambia have also green-lighted massive Chinese-built infrastructure. But Zambia is struggling with the resulting debt burden. It was the first country to default on its debt during the pandemic.

Zambia President Hakainde Hichilema, who’s been looking to restructure the nation’s loan with China, recently visited his Chinese counterpart.

The West has been critical of China for lending to poor countries and says it must quickly provide relief to those that ended up with unsustainable and unpayable debts.

“Prompt action on debt is in China’s interest,” Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said earlier this year. “Delaying needed debt treatments raises the costs both for borrowers and creditors. It worsens [the] borrowers’ economic fundamentals and increases the amount of debt relief they will eventually need.”

Sacks said the narrative that China actively goes around the world seeking to ensnare nations into debt traps is simplistic. He noted that many countries joined BRI when economic growth was quite robust and didn’t expect leaner times.

“The first shock was of course the COVID-19 pandemic, which really eviscerated global economic growth but also hit the developing world particularly hard,” he said. “The second one was the war in Ukraine. [For] Africa, major importers of food as well as oil, prices for those commodities have gone up tremendously.”

A recent Boston University study found that lending to Africa by China has dropped to the lowest level in two decades. Analysts say that while the BRI is here to stay, Beijing may be moving toward smaller investments.
…

‘Ring of Fire’ Solar Eclipse Will Slice Across Americas on Saturday

WPScienLeave a comment

Tens of millions in the Americas will have front-row seats for Saturday’s rare “ring of fire” eclipse of the sun. 

What’s called an annular solar eclipse — better known as a ring of fire — will briefly dim the skies over parts of the western U.S. and Central and South America. 

As the moon lines up precisely between Earth and the sun, it will blot out all but the sun’s outer rim. A bright, blazing border will appear around the moon for as much as five minutes, wowing sky gazers along a narrow path stretching from Oregon to Brazil. 

The celestial showstopper will yield a partial eclipse across the rest of the Western Hemisphere. 

It’s a prelude to the total solar eclipse that will sweep across Mexico, the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada in six months. Unlike Saturday, when the moon is too far from Earth to completely cover the sun from our perspective, the moon will be at the perfect distance on April 8, 2024. 

Here’s what you need to know about the ring of fire eclipse, where you can see it and how to protect your eyes: 

What’s the path of the ‘ring of fire’ eclipse? 

The eclipse will carve out a swath about 210 kilometers wide, starting in the North Pacific and entering the U.S. over Oregon around 8 a.m. PDT Saturday. It will culminate in the ring of fire a little over an hour later. From Oregon, the eclipse will head downward across Nevada, Utah, New Mexico and Texas, encompassing slivers of Idaho, California, Arizona and Colorado, before exiting into the Gulf of Mexico at Corpus Christi. It will take less than an hour for the flaming halo to traverse the U.S. 

From there, the ring of fire will cross Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and finally, Brazil before its grand finale over the Atlantic. 

The entire eclipse — from the moment the moon starts to obscure the sun until it’s back to normal — will last 2 1/2 to three hours at any given spot. The ring of fire portion lasts from three to five minutes, depending on location. 

Where can the eclipse be seen? 

In the U.S. alone, more than 6.5 million people live along the so-called path of annularity, with another 68 million within 322 kilometers, according to NASA’s Alex Lockwood, a planetary scientist. “So, a few hours’ short drive and you can have over 70 million witness this incredible celestial alignment,” she said. 

At the same time, a crescent-shaped partial eclipse will be visible in every U.S. state, although just barely in Hawaii, provided the skies are clear. Canada, Central America and most of South America also will see a partial eclipse. The closer to the ring of fire path, the bigger the bite the moon will appear to take out of the sun. 

Can’t see it? NASA and others will provide a livestream of the eclipse. 

How to protect your eyes 

Be sure to use safe, certified solar eclipse glasses, Lockwood stressed. Sunglasses aren’t enough to prevent eye damage. Proper protection is needed throughout the eclipse, from the initial partial phase to the ring of fire to the final partial phase. 

There are other options if you don’t have eclipse glasses. You can look indirectly with a pinhole projector that you can make yourself, including one made with a cereal box. 

Cameras — including those on cellphones — binoculars, or telescopes need special solar filters mounted at the front end. 

Seeing double 

One patch of Texas near San Antonio will be in the cross-hairs of Saturday’s eclipse and next April’s, with Kerrville near the center. It’s one of the locations hosting NASA’s livestream. 

“Is the city of Kerrville excited? Absolutely!!!” Mayor Judy Eychner said in an email. “And having NASA here is just icing on the cake!!!” 

With Saturday’s eclipse coinciding with art, music and river festivals, Eychner expects Kerrville’s population of 25,000 to double or even quadruple. 

Where’s the total eclipse in April? 

April’s total solar eclipse will crisscross the U.S. in the opposite direction. It will begin in the Pacific and head up through Mexico into Texas, then pass over Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, the northern fringes of Pennsylvania and New York, and New England, before cutting across Canada into the North Atlantic at New Brunswick and Newfoundland. Almost all these places missed out during the United States’ coast-to-coast total solar eclipse in 2017. 

It will be 2039 before another ring of fire is visible in the U.S., and Alaska will be the only state then in the path of totality. And it will be 2046 before another ring of fire crosses into the U.S. Lower 48. That doesn’t mean they won’t be happening elsewhere: The southernmost tip of South America will get one next October, and Antarctica in 2026. 

Going after the science 

NASA and others plan a slew of observations during both eclipses, with rockets and hundreds of balloons soaring. 

“It’s going to be absolutely breathtaking for science,” said NASA astrophysicist Madhulika Guhathakurta. 

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University’s Aroh Barjatya will help launch three NASA-funded sounding rockets from New Mexico’s White Sands Missile Range before, during and after Saturday’s eclipse. The goal is to see how eclipses set off atmospheric waves in the ionosphere nearly 320 kilometers up that could disrupt communications. 

Barjatya will be just outside Saturday’s ring of fire. And he’ll miss April’s full eclipse, while launching rockets from Virginia’s Wallops Island. 

“But the bittersweet moment of not seeing annularity or totality will certainly be made up by the science return,” he said. 
…

BirdCast Radar Forecasts Bird Migration in Real Time 

WPScienLeave a comment

October 14 is World Migratory Bird Day in the Southern Hemisphere. To better forecast bird migration, scientists are using machine learning and next-generation radar. The resulting “BirdCasts” offer new ways to help birds at risk. Shelley Schlender reports from the Rocky Mountain state of Colorado.
…

Another US State Sues TikTok, Saying It Lures Children Into Destructive Habits

WPEntLeave a comment

Utah on Tuesday became the latest U.S. state to sue TikTok, alleging the company is “baiting” children into addictive and unhealthy social media habits.

TikTok lures children into hours of social media use, misrepresents the app’s safety and deceptively portrays itself as independent of its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, Utah claims in the lawsuit.

“We will not stand by while these companies fail to take adequate, meaningful action to protect our children. We will prevail in holding social media companies accountable by any means necessary,” Utah Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, said at a news conference announcing the lawsuit, which was filed in state court in Salt Lake City.

Arkansas and Indiana have filed similar lawsuits, while the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to decide whether state attempts to regulate social media platforms such as Facebook, X and TikTok violate the U.S. Constitution.

Public health concerns are cited in the Utah lawsuit. Research has shown that children who spend more than three hours a day on social media double their risk of poor mental health, including anxiety and depression, the lawsuit alleges.

“TikTok designed and employs algorithm features that spoon-feed kids endless, highly curated content from which our children struggle to disengage. TikTok designed these features to mimic a cruel slot machine that hooks kids’ attention and does not let them go,” Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes said at the news conference.

The lawsuit seeks to force TikTok to change its “destructive behavior” while imposing fines and penalties to fund education efforts and otherwise address damage done to Utah children, Reyes said.

TikTok spokesperson Hilary McQuaide did not immediately return an email message seeking comment on the lawsuit.

Utah earlier this year became the first state to pass laws that aim to limit the use of social media apps such as TikTok by children and teens. The laws are set to take effect next year.

They will impose a digital curfew on people under 18, which will require minors to get parental consent to sign up for social media apps and force companies to verify the ages of all their Utah users.

They also require tech companies to give parents access to their kids’ accounts and private messages, raising concern among some child advocates about further harming children’s mental health. Depriving children of privacy, they say, could be detrimental for LGBTQ+ kids whose parents are not accepting of their identity.
…

IMF Warns of ‘Limping’ Global Economy

WPbizLeave a comment

Leading economists gathered in Marrakech, Morocco, on Tuesday for the International Monetary Fund’s annual conference. Their message was clear: The world economy is beginning to slump as fissures between East and West widen. 

“The global economy is limping, not sprinting,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters on Tuesday.

The IMF predicts that global economic growth will slow in 2024 to 2.9% from this year’s 3%. It says that downturn is in part due to the emergence of geopolitical blocs, stifling free trade across the globe. 

Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 played a large part, the IMF says, noting that over the past 20 months, the West has issued unprecedented sanctions on the Kremlin and has shifted away from relying on China. 

Analysts say the war between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas insurgents could further expand the rift between East and West — and disrupt commerce in the Middle East, boosting the cost of oil worldwide. Oil prices have already soared in the fallout of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

“It’s a humanitarian tragedy and it’s an economic shock we don’t need,” World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters on Tuesday. 

The fact that many of the biggest oil producers in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., have not come out in support of Hamas indicates that those countries are unlikely to restrict exports — at least for now, analysts say. 

But oil prices have already jumped by about 4% over the past few days as the bloody conflict unfolds in Gaza. 

It’s “too early” to know how the violence in Israel will affect economies abroad, Gourinchas said.

Uncertainty seemed to be a theme throughout the conference. The world has learned over the past three years to expect the unexpected. “[I]t’s too early to jump to any conclusions here,” Gourinchas said, cautioning against panic. 

But if the fighting in Israel drags on, he said, the cost of oil could rise by 10%, global economic growth could take a 0.15% hit, and inflation could hike 0.4%. 

The world economy has shown “remarkable resiliency,” Gourinchas noted, in part because the U.S. Federal Reserve and central banks across the globe have brought up interest rates to hold back inflation. 

The goal of that, economists say, is a soft landing: keeping unemployment low and stabilizing living expenses. Gourinchas said the strategy has been successful so far. 

The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.1% this year and 1.5% next year — a significant increase from the 1% it originally forecast. 

While oil prices have been on the rise across the globe, the U.S. economy has fared better than European countries. Economists believe that is because European consumers have spent more conservatively in the post-pandemic era. 

The eurozone’s economy — the group of 20 European countries whose official currency is the Euro — is predicted to grow by a meager 0.7% this year and 1.2% in 2024, the IMF said. Even the German economy — among the largest in the West — is expected to decline this year. 

The Chinese economy, second only to the U.S., is forecasted to expand by 5% this year and 4.2% next year. Those figures are downgrades from the IMF’s predictions just months ago. 

Global trade, the IMF said, will grow only 0.9% this year and 3.5% in 2024. In the 2000s and 2010s, the yearly average was 4.9%.

Some information for this report was provided by the Associated Press and Reuters. 
…

Digital Currency: Beacon of Hope in Fight Against Myanmar Junta

WPEntLeave a comment

“Digital currencies have played a pivotal role in backing Myanmar’s Spring Revolution,” following a military takeover of the government in February 2021, said NUG Deputy Minister of Planning, Finance and Development Min Zayar Oo, in a statement to VOA.

The minister was appointed by the National Unity Government, or NUG, made up of members of Myanmar’s former democratically elected government and other opponents of the junta.

Centralized digital currencies, however, can be a double-edged sword, with authoritarian regimes seeking to use them as a tool for financial surveillance and censorship. 

“The primary advantage for pro-democracy activists lies in the fact that these currencies operate independently of government control, enabling individuals to offer support to their chosen recipients discreetly, without disclosing their identities,” said Aung Paing, an expert on digital currencies living in exile from Myanmar.

The NUG introduced its own digital currency, the DMMK (Digital Myanmar Kyat), last year as a creative means to bypass banks controlled by the junta. According to a recent statement, the NUG is on the verge of establishing its own online bank, the Spring Development Bank, using digital currency and targeting NUG supporters and the Myanmar diaspora as customers.

The DMMK is tied to the value of the Myanmar kyat one-to-one, much like higher classes of cryptocurrencies, such as Tether (USDT), are tied to the value of the dollar. This class of cryptocurrency is known as “stablecoins.” 

DMMK is used both locally and internationally via a mobile wallet app, NUGPay. In June 2023, NUGPay released its first annual report stating that, one year after launch, total transactions in the app had reached over 300 billion kyats (nearly $150 million). 

“The total amount in the DMMK system reflects that the cash flow is running well and that the number of NUGPay customers is growing,” the report said; a statement reaffirmed by Min Zayar Oo several months after the report was released.

“Since the launch of DMMK, a total of over 600 billion kyat (nearly $300 million) has been circulated so far,” he told VOA on Sunday.

Tool of liberation or oppression

While digital currencies are becoming a useful means for pro-democracy movements to circumvent controls by authoritarian regimes, they can also be an extremely useful tool for those regimes as well, according to Win Ko Ko Aung, Myanmar Human Rights Fellow at Bitcoin Policy Institute. “Globally, tyrannies have used legacy financial systems to suppress activists and civilians,” Aung told VOA by phone. 

“Central bank digital currencies, like the DMMK, have the potential to further empower authoritarian agendas,” he added.

Privacy concerns have kept countries like the U.S. from adopting a centralized digital version of its currency, but countries like China have doubled down on its use of digital currencies to surveil individual transactions in an increasingly connected society.

“I think people underestimate exactly how much power financial surveillance can have over your life,” said Chris Meserole, director of the Brookings Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, at an event in Washington on September 27.

“They [authoritarian governments] can basically turn your house into a prison,” he continued. “Because if you can’t … go anywhere and transact in the world, they basically have … incarcerating power over everyone.”

“The flip side … is that there is this tremendous capability and feature set of this technology,” he said. “Whether it’s bitcoin, or some of the other digital assets out there … it’s fundamentally a messaging network that cannot be censored; and I think it’s incumbent upon democratic regimes and institutions to try and safeguard that technology.” 

Grant McCarty, co-executive director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, which co-organized the event, told VOA after the panel discussion that what cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are allowing people to do, “is actually evade some of these totalitarian powers that exist within authoritarian and anti-democratic regimes. If they want to send money to another country, if they want to send money to a pro-democracy group, they can do that. We’ve seen this in parts of Africa, we’ve seen this in Asia, around the world, people are using bitcoin to circumvent authoritarianism and totalitarian regimes and fight for freedom, fight for free speech and democracy in their country.”

Bitcoin vs own currency 

The question arises: Why would the NUG adopt its own digital currency rather than using a more widely known cryptocurrency such as bitcoin, like they’re doing in Ukraine and other parts of the world struggling under similar circumstances? According to cryptocurrency expert, Win Ko Ko Aung, bitcoin is a better bet for those facing an authoritarian regime like the one in Myanmar. 

“The bitcoin protocol runs on over 70,000 computers around the world, and not a single person or government controls that network. DMMK is a type of CBDC [Central Bank Digital Currencies], according to the definition. Whoever controls the money, controls the system. I understand the Myanmar exile government’s ultimate goal in launching DMMK, but my concern is why they pegged the currency standard to the Myanmar kyat, which has been constantly dropping in value and being debased by the Myanmar military.”

While bitcoin is an effective way to quickly transfer dollars, essential in a situation like the one in Ukraine, “Myanmar is different,” said Aung Paing, one of the analysts who helped launch DMMK. 

“Ukraine is seeking support from all over the world, and using bitcoin, yes, they can transfer money quickly and freely. However, bitcoin’s value depends on supply and demand and can fluctuate wildly, so it’s not a stable currency for the long term. It may be a good option for investors and others willing to accept that risk, but not for a government like the NUG, planning logistics for a revolution and supporting the people. The people of Myanmar want to be able to transfer money to buy property freely, safely, quickly and with a stable value. A central bank digital currency like the DMMK provides that type of stability,” he said.

“It normally takes a lot of time to get people to accept a new currency,” Paing continued. “However, when the DMMK came out during the Burma [Myanmar] Spring Revolution, the people immediately accepted and used the value as set by the NUG. In a time of upheaval and struggle, this digital currency has proven to be more than just a financial tool. It is a symbol of resilience, empowerment, and the unyielding spirit of those fighting for change.” 
…

Indonesia Launches High-Speed Railway, Seeks to Negotiate Debt With Chinese Banks

WPEntLeave a comment

As Indonesia celebrates the launch of its first high-speed railway, the government is dealing with cost overruns and Chinese bank loans with high interest rates. In Jakarta, Devianti Faridz has the story. Camera: Ahadian Utama
…

Older Kenyans Encounter Challenges in Obtaining Health Care

WPScienLeave a comment

In many African societies, elders are highly regarded as powerful figures who keep the culture alive and guide the young. But sometimes that power doesn’t help when it comes to obtaining health care. Juma Majanga reports from Nairobi, Kenya. (Camera and produced by: Jimmy Makhulo)
…

Vodafone to Create Open RAN Chip Sets With Intel

WPEntLeave a comment

Vodafone underlined its commitment to Open RAN networks on Monday by confirming it would create purpose-built chipset architecture for the nascent technology with Intel INTC.O.

The European operator also said it had made its first 4G calls using Open RAN over network sites shared with Orange ORAN.PA in Romania, and it was partnering with Nokia NOKIA.HE to pilot the technology in Italy.

Open RAN allows mobile operators to mix and match equipment from various suppliers, potentially increasing flexibility.

Progress has been slow, however, and the market remains dominated by proprietary solutions from Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei, although the latter has been hit by government restrictions in countries including Britain.

Vodafone agreed in 2022 to work with U.S. chipmaker Intel on the potential to design its own chip architecture.

The company’s director of network architecture Santiago Tenorio confirmed the partners would jointly create chipsets at its campus in Malaga, Spain.

The chipsets will be available to smaller third-party vendors to test their own algorithms without a large financial outlay in silicon, Tenorio said at the FYUZ industry event in Madrid.

He said the ability to produce silicon designs in testing sample quantities would significantly speed up the time to deliver innovation.

“Combining Vodafone’s networking expertise with Intel’s strength in silicon architecture design will enable rapid prototyping, verification and testing, eventually leading to a faster mass production of the chips the industry needs to accelerate,” he said.

Vodafone and Orange said on Monday they had successfully made 4G calls over a cluster of sites in a rural area near Bucharest based on Open RAN technology.

The two companies used hardware and software provided by Samsung, Wind River and Dell in the pilot, they said.

In Italy, Vodafone said a pilot with Nokia aimed to prove that Nokia’s Open RAN solution could achieve the same functionality and performance as its purpose built RAN.
…

Gates Gives $40 mln to Boost Access to mRNA Vaccines in Africa 

WPScienLeave a comment

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will give $40 million, including to a Belgian biotech company and two leading African vaccine manufacturers, in a bid to boost access to mRNA vaccines for protection against various diseases in Africa.   

Nivelles-based Quantoom Biosciences will get $20 million to advance work on its mRNA manufacturing platform, while the Institut Pasteur de Dakar in Senegal and Biovac in South Africa will get $5 million each to buy the technology. A further $10 million is available for other vaccine manufacturers who want to use the platform.   

Vaccines made using mRNA revolutionized the world’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but access was drastically inequitable. A number of initiatives have since been set up to tackle this and try to use the new technology for existing threats that disproportionately affect lower-income countries, such as malaria and tuberculosis.   

The World Health Organization launched its mRNA vaccine technology hub in Cape Town in April this year. One member, Afrigen Biologics, has already made Africa’s first-ever mRNA vaccine for COVID-19 in the lab.   

But mRNA vaccines remain expensive to produce, particularly at the scale needed to test and roll out safe and effective vaccines.   

Quantoom’s platform, called Ntensify, allows batches of mRNA to be produced more cheaply and efficiently at scale, a Gates Foundation spokeswoman told Reuters ahead of an announcement at its 2023 Grand Challenges Annual Meeting in Dakar on Monday.   

“[This] is an important and necessary step towards vaccine self-reliance in the region,” said Dr Amadou Sall, chief executive of the Institut Pasteur de Dakar.   

Ntensify was first developed using Gates’ funding to Quantoom’s parent company, Univercells, given in 2016.   

Afrigen is already using the platform, including for the development of Rift Valley fever and gonorrhea vaccines. Gates and Afrigen said it could cut the costs of developing a vaccine by half compared to traditional mRNA technology.   

“The second generation (of mRNA) is to reduce the cost,” said Petro Terblanche, Afrigen’s chief executive, on a phone call from Dakar on Sunday. 

 
…

Deaf Football Players Succeed On And Off The Field

WPScienLeave a comment

Athletes from 20 countries took the field in Malaysia for the fourth World Deaf Football Championships. Ukraine is the men’s champion, and the United States won the women’s crown. As Dave Grunebaum reports, the athletes are succeeding on and off the field.
…

ECB’s Lagarde: Confident over 2% Inflation Target and Europe’s Winter Gas Situation 

WPbizLeave a comment

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview published on Sunday that she was confident the ECB would meet its target of getting inflation back down to 2%, and relatively confident over Europe’s gas reserves situation. 

Last month, the ECB raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4%.

“The key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target,” Lagarde said in an interview published on Sunday in French paper La Tribune Dimanche. The ECB’s website clarified that the interview was conducted on Oct. 2. 

Lagarde added the fact that inflation was “currently falling significantly” was one of several reason as to why she was not pessimistic regarding the short-term economic outlook.

She added that other reasons for this were economic reforms underway in Europe, and because Europe’s gas reserves situation was better than before.

“Structural reforms are being put in place. And, just one year ago, who would have thought that we would succeed in replenishing more than 90% of our gas reserves by September 2023?,” said Lagarde.

“This allows us to look towards the coming winter, if not calmly, then at least with a lot more confidence,” she added.
…

App Shows How Ancient Greek Sites Looked Thousands of Years Ago

WPEntLeave a comment

Tourists at the Acropolis this holiday season can witness the resolution of one of the world’s most heated debates on cultural heritage.

All they need is a smartphone.

Visitors can now pinch and zoom their way around the ancient Greek site, with a digital overlay showing how it once looked. That includes a collection of marble sculptures removed from the Parthenon more than 200 years ago that are now on display at the British Museum in London. Greece has demanded they be returned.

For now, an app supported by Greece’s Culture Ministry allows visitors to point their phones at the Parthenon temple, and the sculptures housed in London appear back on the monument as archaeologists believe they looked 2,500 years ago.

Other, less widely known features also appear: Many of the sculptures on the Acropolis were painted in striking colors. A statue of goddess Athena in the main chamber of the Parthenon also stood over a shallow pool of water.

“That’s really impressive … the only time I’ve seen that kind of technology before is at the dentist,” Shriya Parsotam Chitnavis, a tourist from London, said after checking out the app on a hot afternoon at the hilltop Acropolis, Greece’s most popular archaeological site.

“I didn’t know much about the (Acropolis), and I had to be convinced to come up here. Seeing this has made it more interesting — seeing it in color,” she said. “I’m more of a visual person, so this being interactive really helped me appreciate it.”

The virtual restoration works anywhere and could spare some visitors the crowded uphill walk and long wait to see the iconic monuments up close. It might also help the country’s campaign to make Greek cities year-round destinations.

Tourism, vital for the Greek economy, has roared back since the COVID-19 pandemic, even as wildfires chased visitors from the island of Rhodes and affected other areas this summer. The number of inbound visitors from January through July was up 21.9% to 16.2 million compared with a year ago, according to the Bank of Greece. Revenue was up just over 20%, to 10.3 billion euros ($10.8 billion).

The app, called Chronos after the mythological king of the Titans and Greek word for “time,” uses augmented reality to place the ancient impression of the site onto the screen, matching the real-world view as you walk around.

AR is reaching consumers after a long wait and is set to affect a huge range of professional and leisure activities.

Medical surgery, military training and specialized machine repair as well as retail and live event experiences are all in the sights of big tech companies betting on a lucrative future in immersive services. Tech giant like Meta and Apple are pushing into VR headsets that can cost thousands of dollars.

The high price tag will keep the cellphone as the main AR delivery platform to consumers for some time, said Maria Engberg, co-author of the book “Reality Media” on augmented and virtual reality.

She says services for travelers will soon offer a better integrated experience, allowing for more sharing options on tours and overlaying archive photos and videos.

“AR and VR have been lagging behind other kinds of things like games and movies that we’re consuming digitally,” said Engberg, an associate professor of computer science and media technology at Malmo University in Sweden.

“I think we will see really interesting customer experiences in the next few years as more content from museums and archives becomes digitized,” she said.

Greece’s Culture Ministry and national tourism authority are late but enthusiastic converts to technology. The popular video game Assassin’s Creed Odyssey, which allows players to roam ancient Athens, was used to attract young travelers from China to Greece with a state-organized photo contest.

Microsoft partnered with the Culture Ministry two years ago to launch an immersive digital tour at ancient Olympia, birthplace of the Olympic Games in southern Greece.

Culture Minister Lina Mendoni said the innovations would boost accessibility to Greece’s ancient monuments, supplementing the recent installation of ramps and anti-slip pathways.

“Accessibility is extending to the digital space,” Mendoni said at a preview launch event for the Chronos app in May. “Real visitors and virtual visitors anywhere around the world can share historical knowledge.”

Developed by Greek telecoms provider Cosmote, the free app’s designers say they hope to build on existing features that include an artificial intelligence-powered virtual guide, Clio.

“As technologies and networks advance, with better bandwidth and lower latencies, mobile devices will be able to download even higher-quality content,” said Panayiotis Gabrielides, a senior official at the telecom company involved in the project.

Virtual reconstructions using Chronos also cover three other monuments at the Acropolis, an adjacent Roman theater and parts of the Acropolis Museum built at the foot of the rock.
…

US Sex Education Classes Often Don’t Include LGBTQ+ Students

WPScienLeave a comment

In fifth grade, Stella Gage’s class watched a video about puberty. In ninth grade, a few sessions of her health class were dedicated to the risks of sexual behaviors.

That was the extent of her sex education in school. At no point was there any content that felt especially relevant to her identity as a queer teenager. To fill the gaps, she turned mostly to social media.

“My parents were mostly absent, my peers were not mature enough, and I didn’t have anyone else to turn to,” said Gage, who is now a sophomore at Wichita State University in Kansas.

Many LGBTQ+ students say they have not felt represented in sex education classes. To learn about their identities and how to build healthy, safe relationships, they often have had to look elsewhere.

As lawmakers in some states limit what can be taught about sex and gender, it will be that much more difficult for those students to come by inclusive material in classrooms.

New laws targeting LGBTQ+ people have been proliferating in GOP-led states. Some elected officials, including candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, have been pushing to remove LGBTQ+ content from classrooms.

Sex education curriculum varies widely. Some groups including Planned Parenthood have called for sex education to be inclusive of LGBTQ+ students, but some states outright forbid such an approach.

The penal code in Texas, for one, still says curriculum developed by the Department of State Health Services must say homosexuality is not acceptable and is a criminal offense, even though such language was deemed unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2003. Attempts in the Legislature to remove that line from state law have failed.

In practice, LGBTQ+ students say they have looked elsewhere for sex education. Some described watching their peers turn to pornography, and others said they watched videos on YouTube about how to tell if someone is gay and how to flirt with people of the same sex.

Gage grew up in Oklahoma before her military family relocated and she spent her eighth and ninth grade years in a U.S. Department of Defense school in the Netherlands. She then finished high school in Kansas, where she began to recognize she wasn’t attracted only to men.

Not seeing a safe outlet at her high school to explore who she was, she went online to research for herself the history of the LGBTQ+ community in the U.S.

“I started to realize there is a huge portion of our history that is conveniently left out. But that history is important to queer youth,” she said. She never really questioned gender or social norms, she said, until she started to learn about discrimination others have faced throughout history. “We have such rigid boxes that we expect people to fit into. If you didn’t fit, you were called slurs. I wasn’t really aware that if you strayed from those norms that people would feel you were attacking their way of life.”

Still, the internet contains vast amounts of false information. Some advocates worry students turning to the internet to fill gaps in sex education will struggle to find their way through the morass.

“Any time you have a political controversy, there is a greater potential for a lot more disinformation to be generated,” said Peter Adams, senior vice president of research and design at the News Literacy Project.

When schools address sexuality, it is often in the context of disease prevention or anti-bullying programs. School can be a difficult place if your identity is seen only in such negative ways, said Tim’m West, a former teacher and now executive director of the LGBTQ Institute at the National Center for Civil and Human Rights in Atlanta. West can relate: He grew up in Arkansas as a queer Black kid and preacher’s son and was constantly made to feel ashamed.

“What if you are a boy in high school that knows you like boys, and you sit in a divided room and listen to a teacher explain how not to have sex with girls. You would be sitting there rolling your eyes, because that is not your issue. But you also haven’t been given any instructions on how to protect yourself should you experiment with a person of the same gender,” West said.

Students need more applicable sex education regardless of their gender identity or expression, said Gage, who volunteers with a youth justice advocacy group and is also president of the Planned Parenthood Generation Action Chapter at Wichita State.

“We all have to make large decisions for ourselves about our sexuality and reproductive health. Those decisions should be grounded in knowledge,” she said.

Growing up in Washington, D.C., Ashton Gerber had more sex education classes than most. But Gerber, who is transgender, said the lessons weren’t all that applicable to their experience.

“Even if you can have sex education every day of the year, there is always going to be something that gets left out,” said Gerber, who is a student at Tufts University in Massachusetts. Gerber said educators should point students to trusted online resources so they can do their own research.

Not knowing who you are is a horrible feeling many LGBTQ+ students wrestle with, Gage said. But equally horrible is not feeling accepted once you do understand your sexual identity.

“Had I known then what I know now, I would have felt safe and confident coming out sooner,” Gage said. “No one should feel like they don’t understand themselves because we are forced to conformity in a world that doesn’t care. We can all be inclusive.” 
…

Pharmacist Shortages, Heavy Workloads Challenge US Drugstores

WPScienLeave a comment

A dose of patience may come in handy at the pharmacy counter this fall.

Drug and staffing shortages haven’t gone away. Stores are starting their busiest time of year as customers look for help with colds and the flu. And this fall, pharmacists are dealing with a new vaccine and the start of insurance coverage for COVID-19 shots.

Some drugstores have addressed their challenges by adding employees at busy hours. But experts say many pharmacies, particularly the big chains, still don’t have enough workers behind the counter.

Chris Adkins said he left his job as a pharmacist with a major drugstore chain a couple years ago because of the stress. Aside from filling and checking prescriptions, Adkins routinely answered the phone, ran the register and stocked pharmacy shelves.

“I just didn’t have time for the patients,” he said. “I am OK working hard and working long hours, but I just felt like I was not doing a good job as a pharmacist.”

In recent years, drugstores have struggled to fill open pharmacist and pharmacy technician positions, even as many have raised pay and dangled signing bonuses.

Larger drugstore chains often operate stores with only one pharmacist on duty per shift, said Richard Dang, an assistant professor of clinical pharmacy at the University of Southern California. That kind of thin staffing can make it hard to recruit employees.

“I think that many pharmacists in the profession are hesitant to work for a company where they don’t feel supported,” said Dang, a former president of the California Pharmacists Association.

Customers have noticed.

John Staed, of Pelham, Alabama, said a CVS pharmacist gave him the wrong prescription about a decade ago: the pills were a different color than usual. He worries the chances for another mistake could increase as pharmacists take on more work.

“These pharmacists always look stressed,” he said.

A CVS spokeswoman said the company is focused on addressing concerns raised by its pharmacists and has taken several actions, including “providing additional pharmacy resources” in markets that need support. She declined to say how many pharmacists or technicians the company has hired.

Former Walgreens CEO Rosalind Brewer said in late June that the company had added more than 1,000 pharmacists in the second quarter, but was running into a shortage of job candidates. Walgreens is adding processing centers around the country to ease some of the prescription workload for its stores.

Brewer, who left in late August, also said the company was limiting hours at 1,100 pharmacies, or about 12% of its U.S. locations. That was down from 1,600 earlier this year, but a company executive has said it doesn’t expect to return all pharmacies to normal operating hours by year’s end.

Labor strife and staffing shortages in health care are not isolated to drugstores, as the recent Kaiser Permanente strike shows.

But drugstores have some additional challenges in the fall. Many customers come to them for vaccines for COVID-19, flu and pneumonia. Plus, federal officials have approved a new shot for people ages 60 and older for a virus called RSV.

All told, CVS touts in a pharmacy counter brochure that the company can offer more than 15 vaccines to customers.

Ongoing drug shortages also have kept pharmacy workers on the phone more.

Jonathan Marquess said one of his drugstores fielded 100 questions one day last fall about the antibiotic amoxicillin and the attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder treatment Adderall, two drugs in short supply.

Marquess runs several independent pharmacies in Georgia and serves on the National Community Pharmacists Association board. He has done a few things to help his stores adapt to the extra workload, he said, including training all employees to answer basic questions about vaccines.

Marquess also adds extra staff when he knows they will have an influx of customers, like when a nearby company sends its employees over for vaccines.

“We learned from our experiences,” he said. “Training your entire staff is very, very important.”

Pharmacists say customers aren’t powerless and can help things run smoothly.

People should bring all their insurance cards to vaccine appointments, especially since insurance coverage is new for the COVID-19 shots, Marquess said.

Dang said customers should avoid showing up right after pharmacies reopen from a lunch break or just before they close, times when pharmacists and technicians are especially busy.

Making appointments for vaccines gives pharmacy workers a better sense for their workload. Calling several days in advance for a prescription refill also helps, said Jen Cocohoba, a pharmacy professor at University of California San Francisco.

“That tiny piece of control can help, because there’s so many things you cannot predict when you’re inside the community pharmacy,” Cocohoba said.
…

Nearly 1,000 Birds Die After Colliding With Chicago Building

WPScienLeave a comment

A massive number of migrating birds collided with McCormick Place — a Chicago convention center — this week, resulting in an unprecedented number of bird deaths.

Dave Willard has collected dead and injured birds from around the center during the migration season for about 40 years. In an interview with the Audubon website, Willard said that he and his colleagues collected 964 dead birds and approximately 80 “stunned live ones.”

“It was truly unprecedented,” he said of Thursday’s event.

Hundreds more dead and injured birds were subsequently found around the city.

Before this week’s catastrophe, the largest number of dead birds he had collected was 200.

“Unfortunate weather” combined with “disorienting brightly lit buildings” confused the birds, resulting in the high death and injury numbers.

“You pick up a Rose-breasted Grosbeak and realize, if it hadn’t been for a building in Chicago, it would be spending its winter in the foothills of the Andes,” Willard said. “It’s just a shame that a city can’t be less of an obstacle.”
…

Spain’s PLD Space Launches Private Reusable Rocket

WPScienLeave a comment

Spanish company PLD Space launched its reusable Miura-1 rocket early on Saturday from a site in southwestern Spain, carrying out Europe’s first fully private rocket launch and offering hope for the continent’s stalled space ambitions.

The startup’s test nighttime launch from Huelva came after two previous attempts were scrubbed. The Miura-1 rocket, named after a breed of fighting bulls, is as tall as a three-story building and has a 100-kilogram cargo capacity. The launch carries a payload for test purposes, but this will not be released, the company said.

Mission control video showed engineers cheering as the rocket gained altitude against the dark nighttime sky, shouting for joy and congratulating one another.

A first attempt to launch the Miura-1 rocket in May was abandoned due to strong high-altitude winds. A second attempt in June failed when umbilical cables in the avionics bay did not all release in time, halting the lift off as smoke and flames spewed out from the rocket.

Airspace, areas of the sea and roads were closed around the high-security launch site ahead of the launch.

Europe’s efforts to develop capabilities to send small satellites into space are in focus after a failed orbital rocket launch by Virgin Orbit from Britain in January. That system involved releasing the launcher from a converted Boeing 747. Competitors lining up to join the race to launch small payloads include companies in Scotland, Sweden and Germany.

Saturday’s mission on the Miura-1 demonstrator was the first of two scheduled suborbital missions. However, analysts say the most critical test of its ambitions will be the development of orbital services on the larger Miura-5, planned for 2025.

In July, the last launch of Europe’s largest rocket, the premier Ariane 5 space launcher, took place at the European spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana.

Europe has until recently depended on Ariane 5 and its 11-tonne-plus capacity for heavy missions, as well as Russia’s Soyuz launcher for medium payloads and Italy’s Vega, which is also launched from Kourou, for small ones.

The end of Ariane 5 has left Europe with virtually no autonomous access to space until its successor, Ariane 6, is launched. Russia halted access to Soyuz in response to European sanctions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the upgraded Vega-C has been grounded for technical reasons and Ariane 6 is delayed until next year.

The European Space Agency said last week that Vega-C would not return to service until the fourth quarter of 2024, following a failed mission last December.
…

Will Weight Loss Drugs Like Ozempic Take a Bite Out of Junk Food Sales?

WPbizLeave a comment

All About America explores American culture, politics, trends, history, ideals and places of interest.

As Americans shed pounds on weight loss drugs like Ozempic, snack food companies could be in for some shrinkage, as well.

“The food, beverage and restaurant industries could see softer demand, particularly for unhealthier foods and high-fat, sweet and salty options,” Morgan Stanley food analyst Pamela Kaufman says in a company report.

A survey of 300 people currently taking semaglutide weight loss drugs such as Ozempic showed the medicine can reduce calorie intake by 20% to 30% a day.

The people surveyed said they cut back the most on foods that are high in sugar and fat, reducing their consumption of sweets, sugary drinks and baked goods by up to two-thirds. The survey found 77% of people on weight loss drugs went to fast food restaurants less often, while 74% reduced their visits to pizza shops.

Approximated 1 in 5 American adults is obese, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“It’s all of these food companies [and] beverage companies that have created the obesity,” says Angelica Gianchandani, professor of marketing at the University of New Haven in Connecticut. “At one time, it was innovation — creating all these different products and being able to put foods in bags and ziplocks [plastic bags] and easy to carry and transport — that was innovation. But all of this food creation in packaged goods, there’s a lot of processed foods, and the impact, if you’re not eating in moderation, has created this obesity.”

Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that 24 million people, roughly 7% of the U.S. population, will be taking this new class of obesity drugs by 2035. They project that overall consumption of soft drinks, baked goods and salty snacks could fall up to 3% by 2035.

But James Schrager, professor of entrepreneurship and strategy at the University of Chicago, says the snack industry continues to grow, and he doesn’t expect the increased use of semaglutides to have a major long-term impact.

“The growth comes from younger users, and younger users may not be the primary target for the drug,” he says. “Younger people — who don’t become obese usually, or at least in many cases — and who aren’t going to be taking the drug.”

Schrager says he’s worked as a consultant with some of the largest processed food companies in the world, and they are already concerned about providing healthier options.

“Way before this drug, [they worried] that the market will go away,” Schrager says. “They very much know that some of these are not good for some people’s health. …They would often say, ‘In a health-conscious world, we realize we may be out of business. How do we fix that?’”

The rise in semaglutide use also could cut into other obesity-related industries. The proportion of people paying for weight loss programs fell from 29% to 20% once they started taking the drug, according to the data. Gianchandani says weight loss businesses will pivot to health and wellness to stay afloat.

“And it will require people to have coaches, people to have nutritionists, to help give them a regimented diet to help them monitor,” she says. “These weight loss companies will encompass all of that, everything from food programs to coaching and support groups to help them maintain their weight and stay healthy.”

The report finds that patients taking the obesity drugs say they’re cutting back on sugary carbonated drinks (65%) and alcohol (62%). Almost one-fourth completely gave up alcohol. But Gianchandani says alcohol producers could benefit from the semaglutide craze.

“It’s going to capture a whole new market share. For them, it’s good,” she says, pointing out that alcohol producers are increasingly developing lower-calorie beverages. “They’re going to have a new product line to target a whole new demographic, and it will be millions of dollars of a market for them to benefit from.”
…

Auto Workers Stop Expanding Strikes After GM Battery Plant Concession

WPbizLeave a comment

The United Auto Workers union said Friday it will not expand its strikes against Detroit’s three automakers after General Motors made a breakthrough concession on unionizing electric vehicle battery plants. 

Union President Shawn Fain told workers in a video appearance that additional plants could be added to the strikes later. 

The announcement of the pause in expanding the strikes came shortly after GM agreed to bring electric vehicle battery plants into the UAW’s national contract, essentially assuring that they will be unionized. 

Fain, wearing a T-shirt that said “Eat the Rich” in bold letters, said GM’s move will change the future of the union and the auto industry. He said GM made the change after the union threatened to strike at a plant in Arlington, Texas, that makes highly profitable large SUVs. 

“Today, under the threat of a major financial hit, they leapfrogged the pack in terms of a just transition” from combustion engines to electric vehicles, he said. “Our strike is working, but we’re not there yet.” 

In addition to large general pay raises, cost of living pay, restoration of pensions for new hires and other items, the union wanted to represent 10 battery factories proposed by the companies. 

The companies have said the plants, mostly joint ventures with South Korean battery makers, had to be bargained separately. 

Friday’s change means the four U.S. GM battery plants would now be covered under the union’s master agreement and GM would bargain with the union “which I think is a monumental development,” said Marick Masters, a business professor at Wayne State University in Detroit.  He said the details of GM’s offer, made in writing, will have to be scrutinized. 

“GM went far beyond and gave them this,” Masters said. “And I think GM is thinking they may get something in return for this on the economic items.” 

GM, Ford and Stellantis declined immediate comment on Fain’s announcement. 

Shares of all three automakers rose after Fain’s announcement in apparent anticipation that deals might be near. GM’s shares ended Friday up almost 2%, Stellantis added 3% and Ford rose just under 1%. 

The automakers have resisted bringing battery plants into the national UAW contracts, contending the union can’t represent workers who haven’t been hired yet. They also say joint venture partners must be involved in the talks. 

They also fear that big union contracts could drive up the prices of their electric vehicles, making them more expensive than Tesla and other nonunion competitors. 

For the past two weeks the union has expanded strikes that began on September 15 when the UAW targeted one assembly plant from each of the three automakers. That spread to 38 parts-distribution centers run by GM and Stellantis, maker of Jeeps and Ram pickups. Ford was spared from that expansion because talks with the union were progressing then. 

Last week the union added a GM crossover SUV plant in Lansing, Michigan, and a Ford SUV factory in Chicago but spared Stellantis from additional strikes due to progress in talks. 

Automakers have long said they are willing to give raises, but they fear that a costly contract will make their vehicles more expensive than those built at nonunion U.S. plants run by foreign corporations. 

The union insists that labor expenses are only 4% to 5% of the cost of a vehicle, and that the companies are making billions in profits and can afford big raises. 

The union had structured its walkouts so the companies can keep making big pickup trucks and SUVs, their top-selling and most profitable vehicles. Previously it shut down assembly plants in Missouri, Ohio and Michigan that make midsize pickups, commercial vans and midsize SUVs, which aren’t as profitable as larger vehicles. 

In the past, the union picked one company as a potential strike target and reached a contract agreement with that company to be the pattern for the others. 

But this year, Fain introduced a novel strategy of targeting a limited number of facilities at all three automakers. About 25,000, or about 17%, of the union’s 146,000 workers at the three automakers are now on strike. 
…

Glacial Lake Floods: A Growing, Unpredictable Climate Risk

WPScienLeave a comment

Indian rescuers are searching for over 100 people missing in a flash flood caused by a glacial lake bursting its banks, a risk scientists warn is increasing with climate change.

Agence France-Presse explains what glacial lake outburst floods are and the risks they pose, particularly in parts of Asia.

What is a glacial lake outburst flood?

A glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF, is the sudden release of water that has collected in former glacier beds.

These lakes are formed by the retreat of glaciers, a naturally occurring phenomenon that has been turbocharged by the warmer temperatures of human-caused climate change.

Glacier melt is often channeled into rivers, but ice or the build-up of debris can form what is effectively a natural dam, behind which a glacial lake builds.

If these natural dams are breached, large quantities of water can be released suddenly from the lakes, causing devastating flooding.

What causes these breaches?

The natural dams holding back glacial lakes can be breached for a variety of reasons, explained Lauren Vargo, a glacier expert and scientist at the Antarctic Research Centre in New Zealand. Causes include “an avalanche of snow, or a landslide causing a wave in the lake, or overfilling of the lake … from rain or the glacier melting,” she told AFP.

Sometimes the dam has been gradually degraded over time or is ruptured by an event such as an earthquake.

The breaches are highly unpredictable, “because they can be caused by so many different factors,” she said.

What is the impact of climate change?

Climate change is driving the disappearance of glaciers, with half the Earth’s 215,000 glaciers projected to melt by the end of the century, even if warming can be capped at 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The volume of glacial lakes has jumped by 50% in 30 years, according to a 2020 study based on satellite data.

The more lakes that form and the larger they grow, the greater the risk they pose to populations downstream.

Climate change is not only driving the creation of glacial lakes, but also can produce the conditions that result in dam breaches.

“The flooding can be caused by glaciers melting or these big rainfall events,” said Vargo. “We know that’s happening more because of climate change.”

How dangerous are these floods?

The particular danger of GLOFs lies in their unpredictability.

“The probability of a lake releasing a GLOF is difficult to accurately quantify without detailed and localized studies,” a study of the problem globally warned this year.

The study, published in Nature Communications, found that 15 million people live within 50 kilometers (31 miles) of a glacial lake and within one kilometer of potential flooding from a breach.

The risk was greatest in “High Mountains Asia,” an area that covers parts of 12 countries, including India, Pakistan, China and Nepal.

That is partly because more people live closer to glacial lakes in the region than in other parts of the world, making warning times even shorter.

But it also reflects the vulnerability of those populations, who may be poorer and less prepared to deal with the sudden arrival of catastrophic floodwaters.

“The most dangerous basins … do not always host the most, or the largest, glacial lakes,” the authors wrote.

“Rather it is the high number of people and the reduced capacity of those people to cope with disaster that plays a key role in determining overall GLOF danger.”

Thousands of people, for example, have been killed by glacier lake outburst floods in High Mountains Asia but only a handful in North America’s Pacific Northwest, even though that region has twice as many glacial lakes.

Experts have called for more research on the risks posed by GLOFs, particularly in the Andean region, which remains comparatively understudied, but also for better preparedness.

“But then there’s the larger part of what we can do in terms of reducing emissions, to try to slow down climate change and reduce the threats of this from growing even more,” Vargo said.
…