US Flu Outbreak on Track to Be One of Worst in 15 Years

U.S. health officials say the flu outbreak this winter is on track to be one of the most severe in the past 15 years.

In their latest weekly report Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the flu is now widespread in every U.S. state except for Hawaii. The CDC said at this rate of infection, by the end of the flu season, around 34 million people will have come down with the flu.

Officials say last week, 1 in 15 doctor visits across the country was for symptoms of flu.

Past outbreaks 

Health officials say more people are seeking care for flulike illness than at any other time since the 2009 swine flu pandemic that swept the country. Apart from that outbreak, the last time the country experienced such high levels of seasonal flu was in 2003-04. 

The CDC said the virus this winter has caused nearly 12,000 people to be hospitalized and killed 37 children. Officials say the death toll of children is likely to rise as pediatric deaths must first be reported to a medical examiner and can take longer to be documented. 

Differences this year

The flu typically affects children and the elderly the most. However, hospitalization rates for people 50 to 64 — those who mostly fall under the baby boomer demographic — has been unusually high this season. Officials say the rate of hospitalization for baby boomers is 44.2 per 100,000 people, which is nearly triple what it was last season.

The CDC does not track adult flu deaths directly.

This year’s flu strain, mostly the H3N2 flu virus, is the same main bug from last winter, which did not have as severe an outbreak. Experts say that they are not sure why the pandemic is so bad this year and that flu seasons are notoriously hard to predict. 

Dr. Dan Jernigan, director of the influenza division at the CDC, told reporters on a conference call Friday that one notable difference in this year’s flu outbreak is that the pandemic hit almost all states in the country at the same time. “We often see different parts of the country light up at different times, but there is lots of flu all at the same time” this year, he said.

Jernigan said a surge of cases in January could have been caused by children returning to school after the Christmas break and spreading the virus. 

Flu peak

The flu season usually peaks in February. Influenza activity has already begun to taper off in some parts of the United States, particularly in California, which has been one of the hardest-hit states. Officials say this flu season also began early and so could end earlier.

Flu is a contagious respiratory illness that causes such symptoms as fever, cough, muscle aches, headaches and fatigue. Most people who get the flu get better within a week or two. However, some people develop serious complications caused by viral infection of the nasal passages and throat and lungs. 

The CDC recommends a flu vaccine for everyone older than 6 months. However, officials say this year’s vaccine is only about 30 percent effective in preventing infection.

Michigan State University Athletic Director Resigns Amid Nassar Scandal

Michigan State University Athletic Director Mark Hollis resigned Friday, two days after the school’s president stepped down amid a storm of criticism about how it handled the sexual assault scandal that led to the conviction of former school faculty member and USA Gymnastics physician Larry Nassar.

Nassar was sentenced Wednesday to 40 to 175 years in prison after pleading guilty of sexually abusing more than 150 female gymnasts, some as young as 6 years old, under the guise of medical treatment, for more than two decades.

Hollis disclosed his resignation to a small group of reporters on campus. When asked why he was stepping down, Hollis tearfully said, “Because I care.” Hollis also said he hoped his resignation “has a little bit, a little bit, of helping that healing process.”

More than 150 of Nassar’s victims gave emotional statements at his sentencing hearing in Lansing, Michigan. Several of the victims who addressed the court were former athletes at the university, and many victims charged the school with mishandling complaints about Nassar as far back as the late 1990s.

Nassar was also accused of molesting other young gymnasts while employed by USA Gymnastics, the sport’s U.S. governing body. Olympic gold medalists Aly Raisman, Jordyn Wieber, Simone Biles, Gabby Douglas and McKayla Maroney are among victims who said in recent months they were assaulted by Nassar during treatment. Many victims have accused USA Gymnastics of ignoring or concealing their complaints in an effort to avoid negative publicity.

University President Lou Anna Simon submitted her resignation late Wednesday, just after Nassar’s sentencing. The school’s governing board expressed support for Simon, but she eventually succumbed to pressure from students, faculty and lawmakers. There is no evidence Simon was aware Nassar was committing acts of abuse, but some of the more than 150 accusers said their complaints to the school over the years were not addressed.

University board members, who are elected in statewide votes, are also under intense scrutiny, prompting two members to say they would not seek re-election. Board member Joel Ferguson apologized this week for saying previously that some victims were ambulance chasers seeking a payday.

Michigan State had long resisted pleas for an independent investigation, but last week asked state Attorney General Bill Schuette to review the scandal.

In a Twitter post Friday, university trustee Mitch Lyons expressed regret that the school had failed to respond appropriately.

A student march and protest was scheduled for Friday evening.

Trump Warns Rivals About Trade Practices in Davos Speech

President Donald Trump has warned that the United States will no longer tolerate unfair trade practices and will always put America first in future trade deals. Giving the closing speech at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos on Friday, Trump lauded the performance of the U.S. economy under his leadership. The speech, however, was overshadowed by further controversy over alleged links between the president’s campaign team and Russia. Henry Ridgwell reports.

Defiant Moscow Cinema Shows Banned Stalin Comedy

A Moscow cinema has been warned after defying a government ban on showing The Death Of Stalin. (Please see related stories link for VOA story on “The Death of Stalin”) The black comedy was screened to a packed audience on January 25, and many said they didn’t find the satirical film offensive. (RFE/RL’s Russian Service)

Study: Kids Often Get Incorrect Blood Pressure Screening Results

One in four children and teens who get their blood pressure screened at routine checkups may appear to have hypertension, but that result often doesn’t hold up in repeat tests, a U.S. study suggests.

Researchers examined data from electronic medical records for almost 755,795 children and adolescents treated at Kaiser Permanente facilities in Southern California, including 186,732 patients diagnosed with high blood pressure.

About 18 percent of kids diagnosed with mild hypertension and 51 percent of youth with more severe high blood pressure got repeat tests at the same visit when their condition was initially detected.

When the tests were repeated during the same visit, 52 percent of kids diagnosed with high blood pressure in the first assessment no longer had hypertension based on the average result from two screenings.

This means a lot of kids got falsely diagnosed with high blood pressure, said lead study author Corinna Koebnick of Kaiser Permanente Southern California.

“Repeating high blood pressure readings will avoid unnecessary follow-up visits but also to prevent the possibility that true hypertension is overlooked,” Koebnick said by email.

Among kids initially diagnosed with high blood pressure, the diagnosis was confirmed at a follow-up checkup for 2.3 percent of patients with mild hypertension and 11.3 percent of youth with more severe cases, the study also found.

One limitation of the study is that different clinicians or methods for measuring blood pressure might impact which patients were diagnosed with hypertension, the authors note. Because most clinicians didn’t follow recommendations to repeat blood pressure screenings during initial visits and schedule follow-up appointments, it’s also possible that this influenced the proportion of kids with misdiagnosed hypertension, they add.

Don’t rush

Still, the results suggest that pediatricians should repeat blood pressure tests during the same visit to verify the results and make sure children get the appropriate follow-up care if needed, the study team concludes in The Journal of Clinical Hypertension.

“If the first blood pressure reading is normal, it does not need to be repeated at that visit,” said Dr. Joyce Samuel, a researcher at the McGovern Medical School at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston. “However, if the first reading is high, taking a few minutes to repeat it may save considerable time, anxiety and cost in the long-run by avoiding unnecessary referrals to blood pressure specialists,” Samuel, who wasn’t involved in the study, said by email.

Initial blood pressure readings may falsely suggest hypertension if the tests are done too quickly, especially if screening happens right at the start of the visit before children have a chance to sit and relax for a few minutes, noted Dr. David Kaelber, a researcher at Case Western Reserve University and chief medical informatics officer of the MetroHealth System in Cleveland, Ohio.

If children appear to have hypertension with the first assessment using an automated blood pressure machine, doctors might get a different result when they repeat the test manually, Kaelber, who wasn’t involved in the study, said by email.

“Automated machines are known to typically generate at least slightly higher blood pressure measures than manually taken blood pressure,” Kaelber said.

Doctors should check blood pressure at each annual physical, according to recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP). Children who have high blood pressure should try to lower it with lifestyle changes like improving diet and exercise habits before trying medication, the AAP advises.

“I think the most important message for parents is that they should be asking about their child’s blood pressure just like they ask about their child’s height and weight,” said Dr. Joseph Flynn, a researcher at the University of Washington and Seattle Children’s Hospital who was lead author of the AAP blood pressure guidelines.

“I’m sure that many parents request their child be re-measured if they don’t believe the height or weight for some reason,” Flynn, who wasn’t involved in the study, said by email. “Similarly, if the child’s blood pressure is high, they should ask that it be repeated at the same visit if that hasn’t already happened.”

 

Health Officials: More Birth Defects in US Areas With Zika

The mosquito-born Zika virus may be responsible for an increase in birth defects in U.S. states and territories even in women who had no lab evidence of Zika exposure during pregnancy, U.S. health officials said on Thursday.

Areas in which the mosquito-borne virus has been circulating, including Puerto Rico, southern Florida and part of south Texas, saw a 21 percent rise in birth defects strongly linked with Zika in the last half of 2016 compared with the first half of that year, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in its weekly report on death and disease.

Researchers said it was not clear if the increase was due to local transmission of Zika alone or if there were other contributing factors.

The Zika outbreak was first detected in Brazil in 2015 and spread through the Americas. It has been linked to thousands of suspected cases of microcephaly, a rare birth defect marked by unusually small head size, eye abnormalities and nerve damage resulting in joint problems and deafness.

For the report, the CDC examined existing birth defect reporting systems in 14 U.S. states and Puerto Rico to look for birth defects possibly associated with Zika.

They divided these areas into three groups: places with local Zika transmission, places with higher levels of travel-associated Zika, and places with lower rates of travel-related Zika.

Overall, they found three cases of birth defects potentially related to Zika per 1,000 live births out of 1 million births in 2016, about the same as the prior reporting period in 2013-2014.

When they looked specifically in areas with local Zika transmission and looked only at birth defects most strongly linked with Zika, they saw an increase.

“We saw this significant 21 percent increase in the birth defects most strongly linked to Zika in parts of the U.S. that had local transmission of Zika,” Peggy Honein, an epidemiologist and chief of the CDC’s Birth Defects Branch, said in a telephone interview. “The only area where we saw this increase was in the jurisdictions that had local transmission.”

CDC researchers anticipate another increase in possible Zika-related birth defects when 2017 data are analyzed because many pregnant women exposed to Zika in late 2016 gave birth in 2017.

Report Sees Profit in Restoring Degraded Land

Around the world, an area larger than all of South America has been deforested, eroded, drained or salinized. A new report says there’s money to be made restoring that land. VOA’s Steve Baragona has more.

Rosy US Economic Report Expected Friday

The U.S. economy likely maintained a brisk pace of growth in the fourth quarter, driven by an acceleration in consumer and business spending, which could set it on course to attain the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual growth target this year.

Gross domestic product probably increased at a 3.0 percent annual rate also boosted by a rebound in homebuilding investment and a pickup in government outlays, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The strong growth pace would come despite anticipated drags from trade and inventory investment.

It would follow a 3.2 percent pace of expansion in the third quarter and mark the first time since 2004 that the economy enjoyed growth of 3 percent or more for three straight quarters.

The Commerce Department will publish its advance fourth-quarter GDP estimate Friday morning.

​Global rebound

The economy’s growth spurt is part of a synchronized global rebound that includes the euro zone and Asia.

It has also benefited from President Donald Trump’s promise of hefty tax cuts, which was fulfilled in December when the Republican-controlled U.S. Congress approved the largest overhaul of the tax code in 30 years.

Despite the economy’ strong performance in the last three quarters of 2017, overall growth for the year is expected to come in around 2.3 percent, because of a weak first quarter.

That would still be an acceleration from the 1.5 percent logged in 2016. Economists expect annual GDP growth will hit the government’s 3 percent target this year, spurred in part by a weak dollar, rising oil prices and strengthening global economy.

Modest boost from tax cuts

While the corporate income tax rate has been slashed to 21 percent from 35 percent and taxes for households have also been lowered, economists see only a modest boost to GDP growth as the fiscal stimulus is coming at a time when the economy is almost at full employment.

“We are encouraged by the current breadth of economic strength and … we expect the pace of U.S. real GDP to accelerate from the expansion average, increasing 3.0 percent in 2018,” said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Fed hawks

Robust economic growth has been accompanied by record gains on the stock market and a strong labor market, with the unemployment rate falling seven-tenths of a percentage point last year to a 17-year low of 4.1 percent. Economists said this could put the Federal Reserve on a more aggressive path of interest rate increases than is being anticipated.

“I think that gives the hawks at the Fed more ammunition to say we should contemplate a more aggressive path on rates going forward,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West Economics in San Francisco.

The U.S. central bank has forecast three rate hikes this year, the same number as in 2017.

Consumer spending

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have increased by as much as a 3.9 percent rate in the fourth quarter. That would be the quickest pace in three years and would follow a 2.2 percent rate of growth in the July-September quarter.

Consumer spending is likely to remain supported by rising household wealth, thanks to the stock market rally and higher house prices, tax cuts and firming wage growth as companies compete for workers and some states raise the minimum wage.

“Since the election the consumer has been exuding confidence, which is the willingness to spend money, and we see he has got even the ability to spend money too because personal income is creeping up,” said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America in Baltimore.

“So, you have the willingness and ability to spend. We think consumption is going to pick up and drive the economy.”

Business investment in equipment is expected to have picked up from the third-quarter’s 10.8 percent growth pace. Spending on equipment is likely to be underpinned this year by the corporate income tax cuts and recent increase in crude oil prices.

Investment in homebuilding is expected to have rebounded after contracting for two straight quarters. An acceleration is expected in government spending from the July-September period’s pedestrian 0.7 percent growth pace.

Trade a drag

But trade was likely a drag on GDP growth as the burst in consumer spending was probably satiated with imports, offsetting a rise in exports, which is being driven by dollar weakness.

Economists at JPMorgan estimate that trade cut one percentage point from fourth-quarter GDP growth after adding 0.36 percentage point in the third quarter.

Inventory investment also probably subtracted from GDP growth last quarter after adding 0.79 percentage point to output in the prior period.

Musician Pushes Boundaries with Earth Harp

Musician William Close holds the world record for the longest stringed instrument, a device he invented and has played around the world called the Earth Harp. Mike O’Sullivan visited the musician in Malibu, California, to see how it works.

A Cheap Test for Potable Water

According to the World Health Organization, 2.1 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water. Many of them rely on wells and streams, making testing the water for bacterial contamination of crucial importance. However, cheap and reliable testing equipment is often not available or not affordable. Scientists in Britain and elsewhere are working on a simple, paper-based test that can confirm that water is safe in a matter of seconds. VOA’s George Putic reports.

Oprah Winfrey Rules Out 2020 Presidential Run

The excitement of a run for the White House by media mogul Oprah Winfrey has come to an anticlimactic end.

Winfrey tells InStyle magazine that running for president is not in her DNA.

“It’s not something that interests me,” she said in an interview published Thursday. “I met with someone the other day who said that they would help me with a campaign. That’s not for me.”

Speculation of a presidential bid by the 63-year-old actress and media executive soared after her stirring speech at the Golden Globe awards against sexual harassment and racism.

Her words had all the trademarks of a political campaign-style speech.

President Donald Trump said he would welcome running against Winfrey in 2020 and that he would beat her.

But a recent poll showed Winfrey would defeat Trump by a landslide.

Gymnasts’ Parents Say They’ll ‘Never Get Rid of the Guilt’

Some parents thought they were misinterpreting the doctor’s techniques. Others assumed their children were lying or mistaken.

But as more details emerged, the mothers and fathers had to face an awful truth: A renowned sports doctor had molested their daughters.

These parents, many fighting back tears, confronted Larry Nassar during his long sentencing hearing, lamenting their deep feelings of guilt and wondering how they could have missed the abuse that sometimes happened when they were in the same room.

“I willingly took my most precious gift in this world to you, and you hurt her, physically, mentally and emotionally. And she was only 8,” Anne Swinehart told Nassar. “I will never get rid of the guilt that I have about this experience.”

Many of the young athletes had come to Nassar seeking treatment for gymnastics injuries. He was sentenced Wednesday to up to 175 years in prison after admitting sexually assaulting athletes under the guise of medical treatment while employed by Michigan State University and USA Gymnastics, the sport’s governing body, which also trains Olympians.

He counted on his charm and reputation to deflect any questions. He was so brazen that he sometimes molested patients in front of their parents, shielding the young girls with his body or a sheet. His clinic on the university campus was decorated with signed photos of Olympic stars, bolstering his credentials to star-struck athletes and their families.

Parents who voiced concern say Nassar dismissed their questions. The mother of one 12-year-old victim said she questioned Nassar about not wearing gloves and he “answered in a way that made me feel stupid for asking.”

“I told myself, ‘He’s an Olympic doctor, be quiet,”’ the woman said. “The guilt that I feel, and that my husband feels, that we could not protect our child, is crippling.”

Some victims said they were so young that they did not understand they had been abused until they were adults, so did not tell anyone.

What’s more, coaches told the parents that Nassar was the best and could help their daughters achieve their dreams.

Paul DerOhannesian, a former prosecutor in New York who has written a book on sexual assault trials, said abusers in positions of authority often hold “tremendous power” over both children and parents. Some parents also fear what will happen to their child if they report abuse, and children often have difficulty talking to parents about anything sexual.

“It shouldn’t turn into a situation where we blame parents,” DerOhannesian said.

But even when Nassar’s abuse was reported to coaches and law enforcement authorities, many of them did not believe Nassar had done anything wrong, causing many parents and girls to second-guess themselves.

Donna Markham recounted how her then-12-year-old daughter Chelsey began sobbing in the car as they were headed home after a session with Nassar.

Her daughter said, “Mom, he put his fingers in me and they weren’t gloved,” then begged her mother not to confront Nassar, fearing it would derail her gymnastics career.

The next day, Donna Markham told her daughter’s coach, who did not believe it. Markham said she also asked other mothers if their daughters had mentioned inappropriate touching by Nassar. “They gave me a look like, ‘You’re lying to me,'” she told the judge, choking back tears.

Chelsey Markham quit gymnastics not long afterward and entered a “path of destruction” and self-loathing and eventually committed suicide.

“It all started with him,” Markham told the judge. “It has destroyed our family. We used to be so close. … I went through four years of intense therapy trying to deal with all this, until I could finally accept the fact that this was not my fault.”

Some parents did not believe their daughters at first, finding it incomprehensible that the man they trusted could have done anything wrong.

Kyle Stephens, whose family was close with Nassar’s, said he repeatedly abused her from age 6 to 12 during family visits to his home near Lansing, Michigan. But her parents did not believe her when she finally told them and made her apologize to Nassar.

Years later, her father realized she was telling the truth, and she blamed his 2016 suicide partly on the guilt he felt.

“Perhaps you have figured it out by now, but little girls don’t stay little forever,” Stephens told Nassar. “They grow into strong women that return to destroy your world.”

Dancer Olivia Venuto, who said Nassar abused her from 2006, when she was 12, until 2013, said her parents did not believe her at first and sent Nassar messages of support after a 2016 Indianapolis Star investigation revealed the abuse.

Swinehart said that when her 15-year-old daughter, Jillian, told her she had been abused, “I tried to believe that there was some medical necessity for this treatment,” she said. “The alternative was just too horrific, to think that I had let this happen to my child when I was sitting right there.”

Police in Michigan investigated Nassar twice. One inquiry from 2004 concluded that his actions were medically appropriate. Another investigation in 2014 and 2015 did not result in charges.

Judge Rosemarie Aquilina, who sentenced Nassar, told parents not to feel guilty. “The red flags may have been there, but they were designed to be hidden,” she said.

Swinehart said other people can’t know how they would have reacted in the same situation.

“Quit shaming and blaming the parents,” she said. “Trust me, you would not have known. And you would not have done anything differently.”

Melinda Gates Launches Initiative to Reduce Poverty With New Technology

Melinda Gates has launched a high-level international commission to spark new thinking on how developing countries can best harness new technologies to reduce poverty. The wife of Microsoft founder and philanthropist Bill Gates spoke at the launch of the commission in Nairobi on Thursday.

The 11-member commission aims to promote use of technology to fight poverty across Africa and provide opportunities for the poor.

 

Melinda Gates, co-founder of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, said the newly launched commission would create opportunities for everyone.

 

“Let us unleash the opportunity here of all the amazing entrepreneurs, because they are the ones. The markets then will scale these great ideas and so we want to make sure that part of this world we are thinking about everybody, not just the people in the capital cities,” she said.

 

The commission will be co-chaired by Mrs. Gates, former Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Zimbabwean philanthropist Strive Masiywa.

 

The team with the help of researchers will deliberate new ideas like robotics, 3D printing, nanotechnology and blockchain to reduce poverty. They will also push for policy recommendations to help government navigate the ever changing technology.

 

According to the United Nations, half of the world poorest people live in Africa, and by 2030 about 400 million people in Africa will be poor.

 

The United Nations estimates 10 million people in Africa every year enter the job market. Experts note the continent needs more economic growth and employment to bring poverty down.

 

Strive Masiyiwa, who is founder of Econet Group, a telecommunications company, says Africa will have to create a better environment to benefit from the opportunities presented by technology.

 

“If we create the right incentives, we can begin to create African venture capitalists who support entrepreneurs on the ground, but they will require incentives, the entrepreneurs themselves need support we need to open our markets constantly deregulate. Deregulation must be a continuous process,” says Masiyiwa.

 

The everyday use of technology has spread in Africa, marked by an increase in mobile money marking and greater use of the internet.

 

But some experts question whether this progress has enhanced economic growth and improved people’s lives.

At Davos Forum, Trump Threatens to Cut Aid to Palestinians

U.S. President Donald Trump has questioned whether peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians will ever resume.

He made the remarks in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netenyahu at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he accused the Palestinians of disrespecting the United States by refusing to meet with Vice-President Mike Pence during his recent visit to the region.

Trump threatened to cut aid money to the Palestinian territories.

“That money is on the table and that money is not going to them unless they sit down and negotiate peace.  Because I can tell you that Israel does want to make peace, and they’re going to have to want to make peace too or we’re going to have nothing to do with it any longer,” he told reporters.

WATCH: Trump on Palestinians

Atlantic ties

Earlier, Trump rejected what he called ‘false rumors’ of differences with British Prime Minister Theresa May and promised to boost trade after Britain’s EU exit.

“I look forward to the discussions that will be taking place are going to lead to tremendous increases in trade between our two countries which is great for both in terms of jobs,” he said, adding that Britain and the United States are “joined at the hip when it comes to the military”.

There is nervousness that Trump’s “America First” diplomacy is about to shake-up the global system that underpins the Davos summit.  Denmark’s Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said many Europeans are hoping for a positive message.

“I hope he will send a message, of course it will be ‘America First’, but if he could add on ‘But not alone’, or ‘But America First and we need cooperation with the rest of the world’ or whatever, that could be nice, because I think everybody needs to realize, whether you are a leader from a small or medium-sized or big countries that you can’t achieve what you want on your own.  The world is faced with a lot of challenges, which can only be solved with close international cooperation,” Rasmussen said Thursday.

Wealth distribution questioned

The general mood in Davos is upbeat, with the IMF forecasting synchronized global growth across 2018.  But behind the many closed doors, there is talk of danger ahead.  The background report to the WEF summit is titled “Fractures, Fears and Failures”, a reflection of growing global tension, says Inderjeet Parmar, professor of international politics at City University London.

“Even though international wealth and the wealth of states and the levels of economic growth and the GDPs of states have grown, the inequality of the distribution is having large scale political effects.”

The fortunes of the world’s wealthiest 500 billionaires rose by a quarter last year, while the poorest 50 percent of the world’s population did not increase their income.  Oxfam Executive Director Winnie Byanyima, in Davos for the summit, says it’s time for action.

“I’m here to tell big business and politicians that this is not natural, that it’s their actions and their policies that have caused it, and they can reverse it.”

Donald Trump is due to give the closing speech to the conference Friday.

“President Trump will be speaking to two audiences, the ones assembled in front of him, and his voter base at home.  And I have a strong feeling that he is going to give some strong words in order to show people back home that he has gone to the belly of the beast itself, of globalization, and told them that he stands for America and the American people,” says analyst Parmar.

Davos is braced for what could be a dramatic finale Friday.

2018 Grammys: Will Hip-Hop Finally Even The Score?

After several near misses and heaps of outrage, this could finally be hip-hop and R&B’s year at the Grammy Awards on Sunday where rappers Jay-Z and Kendrick Lamar dominate nominations for the top prizes on the biggest night in music.

Rap is now officially the biggest music genre in the United States after surpassing rock in 2017, but the odds are historically stacked against a hip-hop artist winning album of the year at the Grammys.

“Hip-hop and black music in general has really had its finger on the pulse of the American temperament for the last few years,” Ross Scarano, vice president of content at Billboard magazine, told Reuters.

“There is a sense that maybe this year some of the wrongs will be righted. I think people are looking to Kendrick and to Jay to do that,” Scarano said.

In the 60-year history of the most prestigious honors in music, only two hip-hop albums have ever won album of the year; Lauryn Hill’s “The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill” in 1999 and Outkast’s “Speakerboxxx/The Love Below” in 2004.

Lamar, 30, whose fusion of jazz, poetry and blues with social themes and love songs has made him one of the most innovative rappers of his generation, missed out in 2016 with his critically acclaimed album “To Pimp a Butterfly.”

This year, he is back with album of the year nominee “Damn.” and record of the year entry “Humble.”

A year ago, British pop star Adele’s “25” swept aside Beyonce’s influential “Lemonade,” a win that stunned even Adele.

This year, Jay-Z, 44, was nominated for album of the year for “4:44,” in which he examines the infidelity that was so scathingly detailed by his wife Beyonce in “Lemonade.”

Scarano said the fact of Jay-Z “getting down on his knees, so to speak, and baring his soul really resonate in a year where we’ve seen a lot of men taken to task for really objectionable behavior.”

Jay-Z goes into Sunday’s ceremony in New York with a leading eight nominations followed by Lamar (7), Bruno Mars (6) and Childish Gambino, the alter ego of actor Donald Glover, with 5.

Ed Sheeran was snubbed in the album, song and record of the year categories despite his romantic pop album “Divide” being the biggest seller of 2017. That omission leaves only New Zealand-born singer-songwriter Lorde’s album “Melodrama” and the Latin global hit single “Despacito” to mount a serious challenge in the top races.

However, the Grammys aren’t just about the winners. In a three-hour live show where careers can be made or damaged, performers include Miley Cyrus, Elton John, U2, Sting, Kesha, Rihanna, Sam Smith, SZA and Broadway star Ben Platt.

The Grammy Awards, hosted by James Corden, will be broadcast live from New York’s Madison Square Garden on CBS television on Sunday starting at 7:30 pm ET.

US, Mexican Unions to File NAFTA Complaint Over Labor Bill

U.S. and Mexican unions will formally complain to the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday that Mexico continues to violate NAFTA’s weak labor standards, a move that they hope will persuade U.S. negotiators to push for stronger rules.

The AFL-CIO told Reuters that it and Mexico’s UNT were filing the complaint with the U.S. office that oversees the labor accord attached to the North American Free Trade Agreement as U.S., Canadian, and Mexican negotiators met in Montreal to try to modernize the 1994 trade pact.

The complaint, seen by Reuters, argues that Mexico’s proposed labor law amendments to implement constitutional reforms will violate the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation. It seeks efforts from the United States to prevent the measures from being implemented and to demand changes to bring Mexico into compliance.

“Simply by promoting this bill, which aims to undermine the constitutional reforms, the government of Mexico brazenly violates the central obligations of the NAALC – namely to ‘provide high labor standards’ and to ‘strive to improve those standards,’” the AFL-CIO and Mexico’s UNT National Workers Union said in the complaint.

 Talks to overhaul the trade deal have been dogged by U.S. threats to withdraw from the pact, but the foreign ministers of Mexico and Canada on Thursday struck an upbeat note on future negotiations.

A key complaint is that NAFTA has failed to lift chronically low Mexican wages that have steadily drawn U.S. and Canadian factories and jobs to Mexico.

The trade pact has also allowed lower health and safety standards in Mexican factories to persist, but violations of the NAFTA labor cooperation agreement are not enforceable through trade sanctions.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office has made steep demands on automotive content to reverse job migration, but its labor proposals have disappointed unions and many Democratic Party lawmakers. The proposals stuck largely to language that Mexico and Canada previously agreed to in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal the Trump administration has abandoned.

“What the USTR put on the table is not acceptable and won’t get the job done,” said Celeste Drake, the AFL-CIO’s trade and globalization policy specialist.

She said past complaints to the Labor Department regarding Mexico’s violation of the labor cooperation pact have not led to major change and this one may be no different, but it aims to influence the negotiations by drawing attention to Mexico’s weak record on worker rights as negotiators discuss labor issues in Montreal.

“It gives ammunition at the negotiating table to U.S. and Canadian negotiators to say, ‘Your violations on NAFTA are not in the past, they’re not over with.’”

A USTR spokeswoman could not be immediately reached for comment.

Thus far, Canada led the call for higher labor standards in the talks, including making a proposal that the United States revise its so-called right-to-work laws in many southern states that help to limit the spread of unions in manufacturing.

From Refugee to Chef: Berlin Film Festival to Showcase Syrian Cook

A Syrian refugee will be cooking dishes from Damascus and Aleppo for VIP guests at the opening of the Berlinale International Film Festival next month.

The choice of Malakeh Jazmati reflects the mission of the festival, which was set up in 1951 to showcase films that address urgent social and political issues in the world.

The festival devoted its program to refugees and migration in 2016 after Europe’s politics were convulsed by the arrival of more than a million refugees from the Middle East and Africa, including Jazmati herself.

At the Berlin film festival opening reception in February, the 30-year-old chef, who runs a catering business in the German capital with her husband, will be cooking for more than 400 guests attending the opening reception.

“When I went and saw it’s not just any film festival but the Berlinale, I was more than happy,” she said of her reaction on learning she had been chosen. “It’s like getting to fulfill your dreams.”

She will be working under the management of Berlinale’s chef Martin Scharff and cooperating with the Lebanese-American cook Barbara Massaad, known for her Syrian cookbook. Her menu will range from Aleppo stuffed aubergine to a Damascene “Syrian pasta”, seasoned with tamarind sauce and pomegranate molasses.

“People think about our food that we only have falafel and hummus, but after that they see it’s a very big kitchen,” Jazmati told Reuters TV.

The festival will open on February 15 with the world premiere of Wes Anderson’s animated film “Isle of Dogs,” staring Hollywood actors such as Bill Murray, Scarlett Johansson and Tilda Swinton.

 

 

 

Puerto Rico Warns of 11 Percent GDP Drop in new Fiscal Plan

Puerto Rico’s governor submitted a revised fiscal plan overnight Thursday that estimates the U.S. Caribbean territory’s economy will shrink by 11 percent and its population drop by nearly 8 percent next year.

The proposal doesn’t set aside any money to pay creditors in the next five years as the island struggles to restructure a portion of its $73 billion public debt. The original plan had set aside $800 million a year for creditors, a fraction of the roughly $35 billion due in interest and payments over the next decade.

The five-year plan also assumes Puerto Rico will receive at least $35 billion in emergency federal funds for post-hurricane recovery and another $22 billion from private insurance companies.

Some analysts view that assumption as risky given that the U.S. Treasury Department and U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency recently told Puerto Rico officials that they are temporarily withholding billions of dollars approved by Congress last year for post-hurricane recovery because they felt the island currently had sufficient funds.

A spokesman for Gerardo Portela, director of the island’s Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority, said he was not immediately available for comment.

The plan does not call for layoffs or new taxes. Instead, Gov. Ricardo Rossello once again called for labor and tax reforms and the privatization of the island’s power company to help generate revenue and promote economic development amid an 11-year recession. He noted that nearly half of the island’s 3.3 million inhabitants lived in poverty prior to the hurricane and that Puerto Rico still faces an 11 percent unemployment rate. Nearly half a million people have fled for the U.S. mainland in the past decade in search of jobs and a more affordable cost of living.

“We must work as a government to prevent this from happening, and that’s what we’re focused on,” he said.

Rossello said an original $350 million cut to the island’s 78 municipalities will not be immediately imposed as they struggle post-hurricane. Instead, he said they will receive more money than usual in upcoming years.

Rossello also called for reducing several taxes, including an 11.5 percent sales-and-use tax to 7 percent for prepared food. More than 30 percent of power customers remain in the dark more than four months after Hurricane Maria, forcing many to spend their dwindling savings on eating out.

A federal control board overseeing Puerto Rico’s finances has to approve of the plan, which it envisions doing by Feb. 23.

“The Oversight Board views implementing structural reforms and investing in critical infrastructure as key to restoring economic growth and increasing confidence of residents and businesses,” Natalie Jaresko, the board’s executive director, said in a statement Thursday. “Our focus in certifying the revised plans will be to ensure they reflect Puerto Rico’s post-hurricane realities.”

 

‘Death of Stalin’ Cast Holds Out Hope for Russian Screening Despite Ban

Just two days before its scheduled release in Russian theaters, a tongue-in-check black comedy about Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, “The Death of Stalin,” has been banned by the Kremlin’s Culture Ministry.

In Park City, Utah, however, where British director Armando Iannucci and several cast members are still presenting the film, a slight optimism still pervades.

While many Russians are doubtful the film could screen prior to upcoming presidential elections, Iannucci, creator of “Veep,” HBO’s serial political satire, told VOA that his team had done a lot of preparatory work for the filming, reading archives and talking with historians, and that no one should take offense to the film’s satirical treatment.

“We are very respectful of what happened in the Soviet Union and what happened in the 1950s, to the people, and we do not hide that in the film,” Iannucci said an interview with VOA’s Russian Service. He said Russians who had seen the film said “two things” to him: “It’s very funny and it’s true.”

Stalin’s allies

Chronicling the backstabbing and infighting among the Soviet leader’s closest allies as they vie for power immediately after Stalin’s death, the film, which has earned accolades in Britain, was slated for release in advance of the 75th anniversary of the end of the 200-day Battle of Stalingrad, which is observed nationwide on Feb. 2.

“This is an obvious imposition and an insult to our civil and national feelings,” Yuri Polyakov, head of the Culture Ministry’s public advisory board, was quoted in news reports. “Everyone said that, from the professional point of view, this is a very bad film, absolutely false. This is a model of ideological struggle with our country.”

Commenting on the decision, Russian Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky said in a statement on the ministry’s website: “We don’t have censorship. We’re not afraid of critical or hard-hitting assessments of our history. In this department, we could give anyone a run for their money. But there’s a moral boundary between the critical analysis of history and pure mockery.”

In Russia, where the film was privately viewed only by Culture Ministry officials and a coterie of advisers, the audience felt it would pose a grievous affront to Russia’s World War II veterans whom they credit with overcoming fascism.

According to one of the film’s main Russian detractors, former State Duma deputy Pavel Pozhigailo, the film, based on a graphic novel of the same name, portrays Georgy Zhukov, Stalin’s deputy commander-in-chief, as a buffoon.

Actor Jason Isaacs, who played Zhukov, is not surprised by such a reaction from members of Russia’s political elite.

For Isaacs, however, the reaction of his Eastern European friend — whose mother’s entire family was deported by Stalin to the gulag — is much more important.

“They’re desperate to see it,” he told VOA. “One of the ways they kept sane [during that time] was by laughing. At the time, people lived in absolute terror, [so] they circulated joke books about Stalin just to keep a sense of identity.”

“I think comedy is only funny if you really believe it’s true,” said actress Andrea Riseborough, who plays Stalin’s daughter, Svetlana Alliluyeva, whom many Americans know as “Lana Peters.”

“So, weirdly, when you are inside the comedy, it’s incredibly dramatic,” Riseborough said. “That’s why it’s funny.”

Black satire

For Riseborough, whom Variety recently called “the breakout star of Sundance [2018]” — with no less than four films debuting in festival’s the opening weekend — it was Alliluyeva’s sheer grit that leavened some of the film’s blacker satire.

“It’s amazing that she was so resilient, she was incredibly resourceful,” Riseborough told VOA, adding that she looked to Canadian author Rosemary Sullivan’s “Daughter of Stalin,” published in 2015, for character insights.

“That she survived for as long as she did… I can’t imagine what the emotional toll is to have a father like Stalin,” she said. “That was probably the hardest thing about playing her part, just spending time imagining what that would be like.”

Emmy-nominated composer Chris Willis, who has worked on the seven seasons of “Veep,” said that, at first, he tried unsuccessfully to recreate the music of Shostakovich and Weinberg to portray the era of the 1950s USSR.

“With this kind of comedy, the key thing is really to stay in character like the actors — not really to wink, not really to make any jokes,” he said. “Just a slight sense that all the music is a little too pompous and extreme, and that kind of invites you to laugh. But mostly there is no laughs in the music. The music is playing very straight.”

For director Iannucci, the film’s overall tone is so vastly nuanced that its negative reception in the Kremlin, he suggested, may be limited to Communist Party stalwarts. The film’s political character composites, he added, draw from well beyond Kremlin leaders.

“The reason I made this film is I detected in a lot of politicians — not just [President Vladimir] Putin, but we see [U.S. President Donald] Trump as well, [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan in Turkey, and even [Prime Minister Silvio] Berlusconi as was in Italy,” he said. “This sense of a strongman in the center who has complete control and complete authority.”

Large-scale discussion

In Russia, Wednesday’s Culture Ministry decisions has triggered a large-scale discussion. Among those dissatisfied with the ban is the film critic Anton Dolin, editor-in-chief of the Moscow-based Art of Cinema journal.

“Those who initiated or supported the ban on the comedy ‘The Death of Stalin’ at the state level, thereby confessed, aloud and unequivocally: ‘Yes, we are Stalinists,’ ” read a post on Dolin’s personal Facebook page. “So that there is no misunderstanding: the Stalinists are those who consider Stalin a hero and a role model (in all its variations or in some, it does not matter), and find laughing at him unacceptable.”

Yelena Drapeko of the parliament’s culture committee told Moscow-based RBK news that she had “never seen anything so disgusting in my life.”

The film, she added, contains “extremist” elements.

“The Death of Stalin” is scheduled to be released in the U.S. theaters on March 9.

 

A Girl, a Stranger, and a Quest for Justice in China

The young woman, new to the grind of Chinese factory life, knew the man who called himself Kalen only by the photo on his chat profile. It showed him with a pressed smile holding a paper cup in a swank skyscraper somewhere late at night.

Yu Chunyan and her friends didn’t know what to make of him. Some thought his eyes were shifty. Others said he looked handsome in a heroic sort of way.

Yu was among the doubters. The daughter of factory workers, Yu paid her way through college by working in factories herself. She and thousands of other students had toiled through the summer of 2016 assembling iPhones at a supplier for Apple Inc., but they hadn’t been paid their full wages.

Kalen was offering to help – and asking nothing in return.

This struck Yu as suspicious. If there was one thing she had learned in her 23 years it was this: “There’s no free lunch.”

Disputes like these often don’t go well for workers in China. But over the years, suicides and sweatshop scandals have pushed some companies, like Apple, to reconsider their approach to workplace fairness.

Today, a growing number of brands, including Apple, Nike Inc., Gap Inc., Levi Strauss & Co., and the H&M Group prioritize transparency and take public responsibility for conditions throughout their global supply chains. Labor rights groups like the one Kalen worked for, China Labor Watch, can play a useful watchdog role for these companies, by helping them understand what’s really going on at their suppliers.

But not everyone has embraced this new approach.

When China Labor Watch confronted Ivanka Trump’s brand with charges of labor abuses at its Chinese suppliers, her company refused to engage. It made no public effort to investigate the allegations: forced overtime, pay as low as $1 an hour, and crude verbal and physical abuse – including one incident in which a man was hit in the head with the sharp end of a high-heeled shoe.

Ivanka Trump, who still owns but no longer closely manages her namesake brand, stayed silent. Neither she nor her brand would comment for this story.

Unlike Apple, her brand doesn’t publish the identities of its manufacturers. In fact, its supply chains have only grown more opaque since the first daughter took on her White House role.

But as the summer of 2016 was ending, Yu Chunyan had no idea she was about to get an education in geopolitics and corporate social responsibility. She wanted one thing only: her wages. And she saw one way to get them: The stranger with the odd English name.

Kalen and China Labor Watch would link Yu not just to Apple, but ultimately, to the daughter of the President of the United States. Their intersecting stories highlight the contrasting approaches Apple and Ivanka Trump’s brand have taken to workplace fairness – and the impact those decisions have had on the ground in China.

It would take Yu more than a year to discover who Kalen really was.

No help came

When Yu was still a baby, her parents went to work at a factory in one of the southern boomtowns of Guangdong province. As a child, entire years passed without a visit from her mother or father.

This was an ordinary enough fate in China, and Yu grew up bouncing between her grandparents’ homes in central China’s Henan province.

The first extraordinary thing that happened to Yu was her high school entrance exam. She aced it, despite her middling grades, scoring even higher than the known overachievers in class.

The shock of her accomplishment gave Yu a soaring sense of her own potential. She raced to tell her mother.

“Oh,” was her mother’s stony response.

Yu’s test score opened the possibility, unsettling to her parents, that she would not marry young, produce grandchildren and start earning money for the family.

Her parents regarded aspiration warily: Excellence would only lead to inflated expectations. Just the sort of thing, her parents feared, that could crush a person. Better to remain where you are, bound by a certain, riskless horizon.

Yu did not agree. “As long as I want something, I will get it,” she decided.

Her parents let her stay in school, but if Yu wanted to go to college, she would have to pay her own way.

And so she did. She enrolled in a college in Henan province. Ultimately, she wanted to do something creative, like design; in the meantime factory jobs weren’t a bad way to make money.

In July 2016, Yu took her place on the assembly line at Jabil Inc.’s Green Point factory in Wuxi, a city near Shanghai. She spent her 12-hour shift snapping the back cover of the iPhone 7 into a mold and passing it down the line.

“It seems simple,” Yu said. “But if you work the whole day doing this your hands will be really tired. Normally, it’s a job for a man.”

Her group’s production quota kept going up, climbing from 2,000 to 50,000 units a day, Yu said. She got dizzy. Her hands hurt. She thought: “When will it be over?”

In August 2016, she quit, ignoring admonitions that her pay would be docked 500 yuan ($79, at today’s rates) for leaving early.

Yu made the 12-hour train trip back to school in Henan and on Sept. 10, her final paycheck hit her bank account. It was an ugly surprise. She was 1,100 yuan short of the 4,930 yuan she expected. Her salary was supposed to cover her tuition. Now it didn’t.

“I was furious,” she said. “I thought that no matter what I would get my money back.”

She called the factory and the labor broker who had gotten her the job only to be informed of a range of surprising fees, some legitimate, others not.

Yu called the labor union at Green Point for help. “Useless,” she said. She called the local labor bureau, but no one picked up.

On Chinese social media, Yu found a chorus of despair as other students – the children of farmers, factory and construction workers – vented about being stiffed on WeChat, QQ and Weibo.

“Everyone had an attitude like, ‘Well, it has nothing to do with me,'” said Zhuang Huaqian, an electrical engineering student at Hunan University of Technology, who spent the summer assembling iPhones in a moon suit of dust-free clothing.

The head of one of the labor brokers in the dispute, Ding Yan, said his company had done nothing wrong. “Wages are our bottom line. We will never underpay them,” he said. “I wouldn’t risk this brand.”

Frustrated, the students took their case to the press. A few articles appeared detailing their complaints, but Yu and another student said postings began to disappear. Were they being censored, they wondered?

The local government published an article on an official Weibo account that said authorities acted swiftly and more than 2,100 students had been repaid. The post included complaint hotlines workers could call.

Chen Jianbin, head of Wuxi’s labor security supervision unit, said his team had to sort through verbal contracts, informal intermediaries and fake complaints apparently lodged by people paid to smear competing labor agencies.

“We were trying our best to help,” said Chen. “Those students’ lives were not easy.”

But many students hadn’t gotten their money back.

Beneath their fury was growing desperation. Every lever of redress they had tried failed them. They had appealed for help to forces they thought they could believe in – society, the government – but no help came.

‘The world is full of good people’

There was, however, one guy, who did offer help. He called himself Kalen.

Kalen had worked in a phone factory himself, 13 years earlier, polishing cheap landline phones for a Chinese brand at a factory in Shenzhen. Back then, he didn’t realize he was being underpaid until he wandered into the office of a local labor rights group one day and learned that he wasn’t earning the legal minimum wage.

That knowledge electrified him. He devoured books about labor rights in the group’s reading room as he prepared his case. Two months later, he won 3,000 yuan in back pay through a local arbitration panel.

Kalen wondered how many other workers out there were like him, ignorant of their rights. He quit his factory job and dedicated himself to teaching workers how to use China’s laws to protect themselves.

Kalen brought his evidence-based approach to China Labor Watch, a group many of the students had never heard of before. He told them about the group’s past work with Apple suppliers and taught them how to calculate what they were owed. He admonished them to be honest as he gathered details about working hours and pay from over 200 workers.

“Seek truth from facts,” he wrote them on QQ.

In September, China Labor Watch asked Apple to intervene. The company sent a local team to investigate, reporting that 2,501 students had received back wages.

But many said they still hadn’t been fully paid.

When Kalen asked for a volunteer to write a letter to Apple, Yu was torn: Could she get kicked out of school for speaking out?

“It was so hard for me to make this money,” she said. “As long as there was a little bit of hope left I wanted to try.” She stayed up past midnight writing down everything that had happened.

On Sept. 28, Li emailed Yu’s letter to Apple.

Five days later, Apple wrote back: It had done further investigation and would ensure workers got paid for their day of training and extra work during meal breaks.

“Jabil invested hundreds of hours of staff time to contact approximately 17,000 employees,” Eric Austermann, Jabil’s vice-president of social and environmental responsibility wrote in an email to AP. “Although often lacking an email address, phone number, or other standard contact information, Jabil located all but about 5 percent of these employees, all of whom have been paid in full.”

The workers received over 2.7 million yuan ($426,000, at today’s rates), according to Jabil Green Point and an October 2017 email from Apple to China Labor Watch.

Apple declined to the comment on the case.

The students’ payments came in a few hundred or thousand yuan at a time. This was money for school, for food, a way to stay out of debt. By the end of October, Yu had gotten back everything she was owed.

She was impressed. She amended the letter she had written for Kalen, turning it into a testimonial and a statement of personal intent. China Labor Watch posted it on its website.

“Due to this experience, I am confident that the world is full of good people, people who make selfless contributions,” Yu wrote. “I wish to join a public interest organization. I wish to help others.”

But China was changing. Hundreds of human rights lawyers and activists had been swept up in a crackdown against perceived threats to the ruling Communist Party. Those with foreign ties, like China Labor Watch, were viewed with particular suspicion.

Yu had yet to grasp the perils of her growing idealism.

It could have been me

After Chinese New Year, Yu moved to Shanghai, a city she had only seen in pictures, to take a job at an interior design company. In March 2017, five months after she’d received her back pay from the factory, Yu reconnected with Kalen on WeChat.

Kalen told her China Labor Watch might need people to work undercover.

China Labor Watch was closing in on factories that made Ivanka Trump merchandise, including Ganzhou Huajian International Shoe City Co.

But the thought of returning to the grind of factory life was more than she could stomach.

“I needed to push myself forward,” she said. She wanted to learn English, dress better, lose weight.

China Labor Watch ultimately sent two men to work undercover. The group obtained a video of a manager berating a worker for apparently arranging shoes in the wrong order.

“If I see them f—ing messed up again,” the manager yells, “I’ll beat you right here.” Another worker was left with blood dripping from his head after a manager hit him with the sharp end of a high heeled shoe, according to three eyewitnesses who spoke to the AP.

The Huajian Group, which runs the factory in Ganzhou, denied all the allegations as “completely not true to the facts, taken out of context, exaggerated.” In April, China Labor Watch laid out its initial findings in a letter to Ivanka Trump at the White House.

She did not respond.

Over the years, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Gap Inc., Target Corp., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and other companies took China Labor Watch seriously enough to respond to criticisms or meet Li in person, according to emails and meeting notes reviewed by AP. Walt Disney Co. severed its relationship with at least one supplier after China Labor Watch exposed poor working conditions.

“We did an investigation on Apple because Apple is a big American company,” Li said. “If Apple changes, the other companies will follow. Now Ivanka is the most famous person among all these companies. If she can change, the other companies will too.”

But that plan backfired.

At the end of May, three China Labor Watch investigators were arrested, accused of illegally using secret cameras and listening devices.

One of them was investigator Hua Haifeng. Police had warned Hua to drop the Huajian investigation, but he pushed ahead anyway, Li said.

A wiry man not easily moved to alarm, Hua seemed to accept fear as the cost of his decision to live his life as an expression of his values.

In more than a decade working on labor rights in China, Hua had helped thousands of workers get back money they were owed, all the while half-wondering when he’d be forced to stop.

Now that he had, Hua, 36, was cut off from his wife and two young children.

Inside the Ganzhou City Detention Center, Hua shared a toothbrush with strangers. Locked in a cell so crowded there weren’t enough wooden boards to sleep on, Hua stretched out at night on a concrete floor next to a bucket that served as the toilet for around 20 men. The men added water and soap, hoping the bubbles might somehow take the stench out of human waste. It didn’t work.

It was the first time in China Labor Watch’s 17-year history that its investigators had been arrested. Police raided the group’s Shenzhen office and carried away computers and documents, Li said.

From his office in New York, Li worked frantically to get the men out of jail. He was convinced the shift in fortune was due to the target of their inquiry: a brand owned by the daughter of the U.S. president. But he had no proof.

Ivanka Trump – and her brand – said nothing about the arrests.

Where is Kalen?

Days after the arrest, Yu Chunyan took a new job at a design company in Shanghai, but something lingered from her experience at the Green Point factory. “I’d prefer work that can help more people,” she said.

She got a friend request from China Labor Watch’s Li Qiang. She messaged Kalen to check Li out.

Kalen never replied. She wondered what had happened to him.

On June 5, the U.S. State Department called for the immediate release of the three China Labor Watch investigators.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that other nations “have no right to interfere with our judicial sovereignty.” State-owned media reported that the trio had tried to steal trade secrets and sell them overseas.

Li Qiang wrote to Ivanka Trump at the White House on June 6, describing what he called “extreme working conditions” in her supply chain. “Your words and deeds can make a difference in these workers’ lives,” he wrote.

He got no reply.

Her brand has called its supply chain integrity “a top priority,” but also maintains that its suppliers are overseen by licensees – companies it contracts with to make tons of Ivanka Trump handbags, shoes and clothes.

The brand said its shoes had not been produced at the Huajian factory since March, though China Labor Watch obtained an April production schedule for nearly 1,000 pairs of Ivanka Trump shoes due in May.

In late June, after 30 days in jail, the three China Labor Watch investigators were released on bail. Hua carried his son in his arms as he walked out of a police station in Ganzhou.

Hua declined to be interviewed for this story. His lawyer said police ordered him not to speak with the media. His bail conditions dictated that he must check in weekly with police and cannot travel without permission. That, plus the cloud of criminal suspicion that clung to him in his small hometown, made it hard to get a job.

In July, Hua asked police for permission to take a family vacation in the Wudang mountains, three hours away. After articles came out in the foreign press quoting Hua, half a dozen plainclothes policemen appeared at a restaurant where Hua was having dinner with his family and tapped him on the shoulder. The next morning they escorted him home, leaving his wife, Deng Guilian, to wander through Taoist temples alone with the kids.

With her husband out of work, Deng got a job selling drinks and snacks at a local karaoke parlor from 6 p.m. until 2 a.m. After her shift, she heads to a nearby dormitory where she and a female co-worker share a bed with a Snoopy headboard.

She gets three days off a month to see her four-year-old son, Bo Bo, and seven-year-old daughter, Chen Chen.

“They seem accustomed to not having their mom,” Deng said, flashing an uneasy smile.

Each Monday morning after dropping his kids at school, Hua makes the short drive past weedy lots and a factory spewing thick white smoke to check in with the local police in Nanzhang County.

At first they lectured him: Change careers. Don’t speak out. Live a normal life. Now, he usually just signs his name, his wife said, but it is clear that missteps can quickly draw the wrath of local authorities.

Police in Nanzhang County, Ganzhou city and Jiangxi province did not respond to requests for comment.

In October, Li Qiang again wrote to Ivanka Trump and her brand.

He said he got no response.

Ivanka Trump’s actions show “that she does not care about these workers who are making her products, and is only concerned with making profits,” Li said in an email. “As a public figure, she has the ability and resources to not only work on labor conditions at her own brand’s factories, but also to help improve labor conditions of the global supply chain as a whole. However, she did not use her influence to do these things.”

An ordinary person

Shortly after 6 p.m. on an October evening, Yu Chunyan left her office and walked through Shanghai’s former French Concession, the wealthy heart of China’s most prosperous city. She passed rows of thick plane trees, black against a darkening sky, and stepped into a discreet tea house.

Yu slid open the wooden door of a private room and peeked inside with a wide, nervous smile at the AP journalists she had agreed to meet. A chunky, colorless sweater hung off her body and her stocking feet poked out of white sandals despite the cold.

Yu slipped off her shoes and took a seat at the sunken table, doing her best to avoid the list of fancy teas glowing from a scrollable iPad menu. She began to talk about Kalen, and pulled out her phone to flip to their exchanges on WeChat.

There, in his tiny profile photo, was a familiar face.

“Do you know him?” she asked, surprised.

AP had been writing about him for months.

Kalen was Hua Haifeng.

Yu had no idea that her Kalen was the same Hua Haifeng who had been arrested while investigating Ivanka Trump suppliers. She listened, still and silent, to news of interrogations and surveillance, his son’s sudden nightmares, the jail and the bucket of urine.

Her eyes welled. Elegant cakes lay untouched in front of her.

An hour later, she sent a WeChat message to Kalen.

“Do you have to take risks to work in your industry?” she asked.

Risks depend on politics, he wrote her, and the conditions of the country you live in. “From the beginning, I expected something like this could happen,” he told her. “So it’s not about bad luck. It was going to happen sooner or later.”

“If you had another chance, would you do the same thing?” she asked.

“Yes,” he answered. Hua told Yu that he had to live a life that embodied his values. He tried to be encouraging. “I am not saying that everyone has to pay that high a price.”

But Yu had a sense that Hua had run up against forces neither of them could fully grasp, much less defeat. In her mind, she was recalibrating the risks of idealism.

“I wouldn’t be able to do it,” Yu said.

In late November, she left Shanghai to go back and live with her parents.

“I want to be an ordinary person,” she said. “I don’t want to get involved with controversial things.”