NEW YORK — U.S. oil production rose 260,000 barrels per day month-over-month to a record 13.46 million bpd in October as demand surged to the highest levels since the pandemic, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Tuesday.

U.S. oil output has grown rapidly this year as drilling operations became more efficient, even as concerns of oversupply have weighed heavily on prices for the commodity amid weaker-than-expected demand growth, especially in China, the top oil-importing nation.

Year-over-year, U.S. oil production rose 2.3% in October, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures prices CLc1 averaged 16% lower during the month, according to Reuters calculations.

Still, the pace of growth of U.S. oil output is moderating, analysts said. Annual oil production growth in the U.S. is tracking around 300,000 to 400,000 bpd in 2024, versus nearly a million bpd in 2023, said Alex Hodes, energy analyst at brokerage StoneX.

“There have been a few infrastructure constraints that have kept production somewhat muted, but I would expect that we will see a lot of the same in 2025,” Hodes said.

Strong U.S. oil demand in October was the biggest surprise in the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly report, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Total U.S. oil demand rose by about 700,000 bpd from September to 21.01 million bpd in October, the highest since August 2019, EIA data showed. Demand for distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, rose to 4.06 million bpd in October, the highest in a year.
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new york — Global stock markets mostly fell Monday in jittery holiday trading ahead of a potentially tumultuous 2025 that will see Donald Trump return to the White House. 

Wall Street’s three main indices slumped to end the day, adding to losses Friday that ended Wall Street’s usual holiday-period “Santa Claus rally.” 

“We can’t drive major conclusions in a holiday-shortened and thin-trading-volume week, but last week’s price action looked pretty close to the narrative of rotation from tech to non-tech stocks that many investors expect to be the theme of next year,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. 

U.S. tech stocks had led the losses Friday, with Elon Musk’s electric car giant Tesla shedding around 5% and AI chipmaker Nvidia off around 2%. 

Shares in Tesla fell 3.3% Monday, although Nvidia shares nudged higher. 

Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare said there was no news catalyst for the weakness. 

“The selling interest, then, has profit-taking activity written on it with a P.S. presumably of rebalancing interest,” he said.  

But “there isn’t a rebalancing push in the stock market this morning. The weakness is broad-based,” he said.

Weighing on sentiment were worries about slower-than-hoped-for U.S. interest rate cuts and possible higher import tariffs once Trump is inaugurated on January 20. 

Yields on U.S. government debt dipped Monday but have pushed higher at the longer-dated maturities on worries about higher inflation and interest rates, with the yield on 10-year bonds hitting 4.63% recently. 

“If yields continue to hold at these levels, or push higher toward 5.0%, then this will be a strong headwind for equity prices,” said Trade Nation analyst David Morrison. 

This comes as investors choose the relative safety of a near-guaranteed 5% return on funds in U.S. Treasuries, compared with the uncertainty of stocks, he noted. 

In Europe, the main indices in Frankfurt, London and Paris all finished lower. Trading wrapped up for the year in Frankfurt, with the DAX rising 18.8% for the year, including breaching the 20,000 level for the first time. 

In Asia, Tokyo closed down almost 1% Monday, its last day of trading until January 6. 

Nissan dropped as much as 6.7% on worries about its possible merger with fellow Japanese automaker Honda. 

Overall, the Nikkei 225 index gained almost 20% in 2024, finally surpassing the high seen before Japan’s asset bubble burst in the 1990s. 

In Seoul, Jeju Air shares fell as much as 15% after one of its planes crashed in South Korea on Sunday, killing 179 people. 

Another Jeju Air flight had to return after encountering a landing gear problem Monday, the airline said. 

Korean authorities ordered an inspection of all Boeing 737-800 aircraft operated by the country’s carriers. 

Shares in Boeing fell 5.3% as trading got under way in New York — but recovered slightly afterward. 

South Korea was also hit with further political turmoil, with authorities issuing an arrest warrant for suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol after his declaration of martial law.
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PARIS — Pastry chef Arnaud Delmontel rolls out dough for croissants and pains au chocolat that later emerge golden and fragrant from the oven in his Paris patisserie.

The price for the butter so essential to the pastries has shot up in recent months, by 25% since September alone, Delmontel says. But he is refusing to follow some competitors who have started making their croissants with margarine.

“It’s a distortion of what a croissant is,” Delmontel said. “A croissant is made with butter.”

One of life’s little pleasures — butter spread onto warm bread or imbuing cakes and seared meats with its flavor — has gotten more expensive across Europe in the last year. After a stretch of post-pandemic inflation that the war in Ukraine worsened, the booming cost of butter is another blow for consumers with holiday treats to bake.

Across the 27-member European Union, the price of butter rose 19% on average from October 2023 to October 2024, including by 49% in Slovakia, and 40% in Germany and the Czech Republic, according to figures provided to The Associated Press by the EU’s executive arm. Reports from individual countries indicate the cost has continued to go up in the months since.

In Germany, a 250-gram block of butter now generally costs between 2.40 and 4 euros ($2.49-$4.15), depending on the brand and quality.

The increase is the result of a global shortage of milk caused by declining production, including in the United States and New Zealand, one of the world’s largest butter exporters, according to economist Mariusz Dziwulski, a food and agricultural market analyst at PKO Bank Polski in Warsaw.

European butter typically has a higher fat content than the butter sold in the United States. It also is sold by weight in standard sizes, so food producers can’t hide price hikes by reducing package sizes, something known as “shrinkflation.”

A butter shortage in France in the 19th century led to the invention of margarine, but the French remain some of the continent’s heaviest consumers of butter, using the ingredient with abandon in baked goods and sauces.

Butter is so important in Poland that the government keeps a stockpile of it in the country’s strategic reserves, as it does national gas and COVID-19 vaccines. The government announced Tuesday that it was releasing some 1,000 tons of frozen butter to stabilize prices.

The price of butter rose 11.4% between early November and early December in Poland, and 49.2% over the past year to nearly 37 Polish zlotys, or $9 per kilo for the week ending Dec. 8, according to the National Support Center for Agriculture, a government agency.

“Every month butter gets more expensive,” Danuta Osinska, 77, said while shopping recently at a discount grocery chain in Warsaw.

She and her husband love butter — on bread, in scrambled eggs, in creamy desserts. But they also struggle to pay for medications on their meager pensions. So the couple is eating less butter and more margarine, even though they find the taste of the substitute spread inferior.

“There is no comparison,” Osinska said. “Things are getting harder and harder.”

The cost of butter in Poland has become a political issue. With a presidential election scheduled next year, opponents of centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk are trying to blame him and his Civic Platform party. The party’s presidential candidate is seeking to blame the national bank’s governor, who hails from an opposing political camp, for the inflation.

Some consumers decide where to shop based on the price of butter, which has led to price wars between grocery chains that in some cases kept prices artificially low in the past to the detriment of dairy farmers, according to Agnieszka Maliszewska, the director of the Polish Chamber of Milk.

Maliszewska thinks domestic, EU-specific and global issues explain butter inflation. She argues that the primary cause is a shortage of milk fat due to dairy farmers shutting down their enterprises across Europe because of slim profit markets and hard work.

She and others also cite higher energy costs from Russia’s war in Ukraine as impacting milk production. There is some debate about the potential effect of climate change. Maliszewska doesn’t see a link.

Economist Dziwulski, however, thinks droughts may be a factor in reducing production. Falling milk prices last year also discouraged investments and pushed dairy producers in the EU to make more cheese, which offered better profitability, he said.

An outbreak of bluetongue disease, an insect-borne viral disease that is harmless to humans but can be fatal for sheep, cows and goats, may also play a role, Dziwulski said.

The U.S. saw a butter price spike in 2022, when the average price jumped 33% to about $9 per kilo over the course of the year, according to government data. Dairy farmers struggled with feed costs and hot temperatures.

U.S. butter prices fell in 2023 before rising again this year, hitting a peak of about $10 per kilo in September. Higher grocery prices in general weighed on U.S. voters during the presidential election in November.

Southern European countries, which rely far more heavily on olive oil, are less affected by the butter inflation — or they just don’t consider it as important since they consume so much less.

Since last year the cost of butter shot up 44% on average in Italy, according to dairy market analysis firm CLAL. Italy is Europe’s seventh-largest butter producer, but olive oil is the preferred fat, even for some desserts. The price of butter therefore is not causing the same alarm there as it is in butter-addicted parts of Europe.

Delmontel, the Paris pastry chef, said the rising costs put business owners like him under pressure. Along with refusing to switch out butter for margarine, he has not reduced the size of his croissants. But some other French bakers are making smaller pastries to control costs, he said.

“Or else you squeeze it out of your profit margin,” Delmontel said. 
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Amazon.com workers at seven U.S. facilities walked off the job early on Thursday during the holiday shopping rush, aiming to pressure the retailer into contract talks with their union. 

Warehouse workers in cities including New York, Atlanta and San Francisco are taking part in the “largest” strike against Amazon, said the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which represents about 10,000 workers at 10 of the firm’s facilities. 

The company, however, said it does not expect any effect on its operations during one of the busiest times of the year. 

Unions represent only about 1% of the hourly workforce of Amazon, the world’s second-largest private employer after Walmart, and it has multiple locations in many metro areas. 

The Teamsters had given Amazon a Dec. 15 deadline to begin negotiations and warehouse workers had recently voted to authorize a strike. 

“If your package is delayed during the holidays, you can blame Amazon’s insatiable greed,” Teamsters’ General President Sean O’Brien said late on Wednesday. 

“We gave Amazon a clear deadline to come to the table and do right by our members. They ignored it. This strike is on them.” 

The retailer’s shares were trading 1.5% higher in premarket hours, a sign that investors do not expect a big disruption from the strike.  

The Teamsters have “intentionally misled the public” and “threatened, intimidated and attempted to coerce” employees and third-party drivers to join them, an Amazon spokesperson said on Thursday. 

Observers said Amazon was unlikely to come to the table to bargain as that could open the door to more union actions.  

It employs more than 800,000 people at its U.S. warehouses and has more than 600 fulfillment centers, delivery stations and same-day facilities in the country. 

Amazon has responded to recent organization efforts with legal challenges. Amazon has filed objections with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) over a 2022 union vote in Staten Island, alleging bias among agency officials.  

It also challenged the constitutionality of the NLRB in a September federal lawsuit. 

Earlier this year, the company announced a $2.1 billion investment to raise pay for fulfillment and transportation employees in the U.S., increasing base wages for employees by at least $1.50 to around $22 per hour, a roughly 7% increase. 
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Bangkok — For many countries in Southeast Asia, Chinese investment and tourism are key to their economies. However, cheap low-quality Chinese products that are flooding markets across the region are also raising concerns about how they are undercutting local businesses, experts say.

That is forcing countries like Thailand to find ways to combat onslaught of low-priced goods.

Last year, bilateral trade between Thailand and China was more than $126 billion, with direct Chinese foreign investment heavily contributing to the Thai economy.

Three of Thailand’s main economic industries are manufacturing, agriculture and services. But manufacturing has seen a decline, with 2,000 factories closing in 2023, leading to thousands of jobs lost, according to data from the Department of Industrial Works.

Business owners have long bemoaned the fact that low-quality Chinese goods are undercutting local Thai businesses.

Bobae Shopping Mall – a retail and wholesale market in Bangkok – is one of the places where that impact is showing. With seven floors dedicated to shopping units, many have their shutters down, even though Thailand is in its peak season and Christmas is next week.

Banchob Pianphanitporn is the owner of Ben’s Socks, which is located on the fifth floor. He has owned the business for 26 years and manages four units. He has one factory in Thailand that employs 24 staff in total.

He said that over the last decade, his sales have dropped by half because of Chinese imports.

“I would say [sales are] 50% down since 10 years ago,” he told VOA.

“I sell socks for 150 baht ($4.38) per a dozen, but if this was a Chinese product, they would sell at 85 baht ($2.48). If [customers] have low budget they will say [my socks] are expensive. They don’t consider the materials, [my socks] are much better material and more flexible,” he added.

Thailand’s slow manufacturing industry has contributed to a sluggish year for the economy. Forecasts project that Thailand’s economic will grow by 2.3% – 2.8% percent in 2024, which is less than its regional neighbors. Although the Bank of Thailand forecasts a 3% growth in 2025, concerns from business owners remain.

Banchob points to several closures of units in his mall, blaming Thailand’s economy. But in an effort to remain open, he promotes his business on social media to attract more customers.

“Social media is a must. I’m on TikTok; I make much content. I have to work harder to tell people I’m still alive; Ben Sock’s made in Thailand is here,” he added.

According to Thai government spokesperson Sasikarn Wattanachan, there has been a 20 percent decrease in low-quality imports in Thailand since July. Authorities have introduced tighter inspections of cheap imports, focusing on agricultural, consumer and industrial items. Thailand has also added a 7% value added tax on goods imported that are under 1,500 baht or $43.77, the Bangkok Post has reported.

But for other sellers and store owners, they don’t see any difference.

Pam, a seller at Pretty Baby, a baby clothes store in the Bangkok mall, says the seemingly unlimited stock from Chinese manufacturers has affected sales. Pam did not want to disclose her full name fearing retaliation for speaking with the press.

“[Chinese products] are selling a lot, but we don’t have that much stock. The government still allows the products from overseas. Our sales have dropped down a little bit,” she told VOA.

For some customers, retaining regular customers is key to beating cheaper alternatives.

Prang is part-owner of V.C. shop, a clothing store which specializes in loose-fitting clothing known as elephant pants.

“The hard advertising from Chinese people [on social media] has had a big effect,” she told VOA. Prang too did not want to give her full name.

“Pants can sell here for 70 baht ($2.04) but Chinese sell for 50 baht ($1.46). In the past we can tell [the difference] between Thai and China products, now China copies look 99 percent the same. We cannot fight with the costs, but we are confident on our material and quality, and we can keep our customers,” she added.

It’s not just Thailand that is trying to reduce low-quality imports. A growing number of countries across Asia are looking for ways to protect local manufacturers and trade.

In India, a proposed temporary tax of 25% on steel imports is likely to be imposed to curb cheaper alternatives from China and boost production from Indian manufacturers, the Reuters news agency reported on December 17.

And in Indonesia, protests against Chinese imports have prompted Jakarta to propose a 200% tariff on certain imported clothing and ceramic goods, to protect small and medium enterprises.

Vietnam also relies heavily on China in trade. Beijing is Hanoi’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade amounting to more than $171 billion in 2023. Although both governments share communist ideologies and a 1,287-kilometer land border, Vietnam is also acting to combat China’s cheap imports.

In late November, Hanoi banned Chinese online retailers Shein and Temu after the two companies failed to meet a business registration deadline with the Vietnamese government. But local businesses in Vietnam have long voiced concern over discounted products and the sale of counterfeit items from the retailer.

“Cheap Chinese imports from platforms like Shein and Temu are flooding Vietnam’s markets, squeezing local producers and sparking outrage over unfair competition,” Nguyen Khac Giang, Visiting Fellow at ISEAS, told VOA.

“In response the government is cracking down by scrapping VAT exemptions, tightening oversight, and banning platforms which do not register in Vietnam. It’s a bold move to rein in Chinese e-commerce giants and defend local businesses, but I think the fight is far from over,” he added.

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia politics, says both Thailand and Vietnam may also have another motive.

“China produces on an economy of scale that no one in Southeast Asia can, their productions costs are lower for most products. I think what you see Thailand and Vietnam doing now is trying to court Chinese investment for local production, to create local product ecosystems. But neither is willing to take China head on and accuse them of unfair trading practices,” he told VOA.
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate Wednesday by a quarter-point — its third cut this year — but also signaled that it expects to reduce rates more slowly next year than it previously envisioned, largely because of still-elevated inflation.

The Fed’s 19 policymakers projected that they would cut their benchmark rate by a quarter-point just twice in 2025, down from their estimate in September of four rate cuts. Their new projections suggest that consumers may not enjoy much lower rates next year for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and other forms of borrowing.

Fed officials have underscored that they are slowing their rate reductions as their benchmark rate nears a level that policymakers refer to as “neutral” — the level that is thought to neither spur nor hinder the economy. Wednesday’s projections suggest that the policymakers may think they are not very far from that level. Their benchmark rate stands at 4.3% after Wednesday’s move, which followed a steep half-point reduction in September and a quarter-point cut last month.

This year’s Fed rate reductions have marked a reversal after more than two years of high rates, which largely helped tame inflation but also made borrowing painfully expensive for American consumers.

Balancing inflation and unemployment

But now, the Fed is facing a variety of challenges as it seeks to complete a “soft landing” for the economy, whereby high rates manage to curb inflation without causing a recession. Chief among them is that inflation remains sticky: According to the Fed’s preferred gauge, annual “core” inflation, which excludes the most volatile categories, was 2.8% in October. That is still persistently above the central bank’s 2% target.

At the same time, the economy is growing briskly, which suggests that higher rates haven’t much restrained the economy. As a result, some economists — and some Fed officials — have argued that borrowing rates shouldn’t be reduced much more for fear of overheating the economy and re-igniting inflation. On the other hand, the pace of hiring has cooled significantly since 2024 began, a potential worry because one of the Fed’s mandates is to achieve maximum employment.

The unemployment rate, while still low at 4.2%, has risen nearly a full percentage point in the past two years. Concern over rising unemployment contributed to the Fed’s decision in September to cut its key rate by a larger-than-usual half point.

On top of that, President-elect Donald Trump has proposed a range of tax cuts — on Social Security benefits, tipped income and overtime income — as well as a scaling-back of regulations. Collectively, these moves could stimulate growth. At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a variety of tariffs and to seek mass deportations of migrants, which could accelerate inflation.

Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have said they won’t be able to assess how Trump’s policies might affect the economy or their own rate decisions until more details are made available and it becomes clearer how likely it is that the president-elect’s proposals will be enacted. Until then, the outcome of the presidential election has mostly heightened the uncertainty surrounding the economy.

“I’ve got the least amount of conviction about what will happen with the economy over the next 12 months than I’ve had in years,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “This is going to be a work in progress as things evolve.”

Projections for 2025

Such uncertainty was underscored by the quarterly economic projections the Fed issued Wednesday. The policymakers now expect overall inflation, as measured by their preferred gauge, to rise slightly from 2.3% now to 2.5% by the end of 2025.

Inflation by their measure is now far below its peak of 7.2% in June 2022. Even so, the prospect of slightly higher inflation makes it harder for the Fed to reduce borrowing costs because high interest rates are its principal weapon against inflation.

The officials also expect the unemployment rate to inch up by the end of next year, from 4.2% now to a still-low 4.3%. That slight increase might not be enough, by itself, to justify many more rate cuts.

Most other central banks around the world are also cutting their benchmark rates. Last week, the European Central Bank lowered its key rate for the fourth time this year to 3% from 3.25%, as inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 10.6% in late 2022. The Bank of Canada also cut its rate by a quarter-point last week, as did the Bank of England last month.
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