If a rising tide lifts all boats, then Vietnam may find that there is a related saying in economics: when the tide goes out, you will see who was swimming naked.

The Southeast Asian country has fared fairly well amid the trade frictions around the world, with its foreign investment and gross domestic product continuing to grow. But even Vietnam is not immune if a recession hits the global economy, as some are expecting, which is why they are bracing for a hard landing. News this week that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods has just added to the frictions, sending Asian stock markets plummeting.

An economic downturn — in other words, the tide going out — could expose vulnerabilities for Vietnam, the equivalent of those swimming naked. Most analysts are forecasting slower GDP growth for Vietnam in the year ahead.

Economic slowdown ahead

It “is important to recognize that the region continues to face heightened pressures that began in 2018 and that could still have an adverse impact,” said Andrew Mason, who is acting as the chief economist for the World Bank in the East Asia and Pacific region. “Continued uncertainty stems from several factors, including further deceleration in advanced economies, the possibility of a faster-than-expected slowdown in China, and unresolved trade tensions.”

His office projects the Vietnamese economy will expand 6.6 percent in 2019, while researchers at Capital Economics peg growth at an even lower rate of 6 percent year-on-year. That compares with the annualized rate of 7.1 percent in 2018.

The pending slowdown, if it comes, would be due to a variety of reasons, not least among them global demand. If more and more countries see their economies decelerate — because of the trade wars or otherwise — they will buy fewer goods from Vietnam. As an export-led economy based on factory products, Vietnam is extremely sensitive to the knock-on effects of foreign trade and consumption.

Another key risk factor for the economy is the portfolio of state-owned enterprises. The government has not divested its shares in the enterprises as quickly as planned. At the same time it faces a growing burden from tax and spending needs.

Public debt and a budget deficit

“Fiscal policy is also likely to become less supportive. Vietnam has one of the highest levels of public debt and the largest budget deficit in the region,” Capital Economics, an economic research company, said in a note to investors. “Tighter policy, in the form of slower spending growth and higher taxes, is needed to bring debt levels down to more sustainable levels.”

Both the company and the World Bank agree that, besides public debt, private debt poses a notable challenge in the country as well, especially at banks. Lenders have not completely offloaded their non-performing loan problem, which refers to loans that are unlikely to be repaid. That contributes to tightening credit, which can be a blessing and a curse.

“On the plus side, weaker credit demand is needed to reduce risks in the financial sector and put the economy on a more sustainable footing,” Capital Economics wrote. “But in the near term a slowdown in credit growth will drag on consumption and investment growth.”

Large trade deals

All of this comes during a transition period for Vietnam, which is preparing for new trade deals like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement. Academic researchers Tran Thi Bich Nhan and Do Thi Minh Huong say the transition period will create plenty of opportunities, but not everyone will come out ahead.

“In terms of society, the increased competition from participating in FTAs can push some companies in developing countries, primarily state-owned enterprises and companies with outdated production technology, into difficulties, bringing along the possibility of unemployment for a portion of the workforce,” Nhan and Huong wrote in the finance ministry’s official newspaper.

If Vietnam adds to that a slowdown in the global economy, workers and other vulnerable groups are most likely to be hardest hit. While the overall impact of a recession is generally negative, some say there is a silver lining. When the tide goes out, it can help distinguish between the efficient and inefficient companies, distinguish between an economy’s strengths and the weaknesses to be addressed. But no one expects it to be a pleasant process.
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U.S. stocks slid Tuesday as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China triggered global growth fears and drove investors away from riskier assets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its second-biggest daily percentage drop of the year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq registered their third-biggest percentage drops, even as the major indexes pared losses to end off their session lows.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said late Monday that China had backtracked from commitments made during trade negotiations. Those comments followed President Donald Trump’s unexpected statement Sunday that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent.

Beijing said Tuesday that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States Thursday and Friday for trade talks. Additional tariffs are set to take effect Friday if a trade agreement is not reached by then.

Investor concerns

Monday’s comments from Lighthizer and Mnuchin raised concerns among some investors that trade talks between China and the United States could take much longer to resolve than previously thought.

“Week after week, we’ve heard there has been progress and that a deal would be reached,” said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis. “Now the goalposts have moved. There’s been quite a shift in expectations.”

Investors expressed concern that additional tariffs, if imposed, could interrupt supply chains and hamper economic growth.

“The threat of tariffs has not been trotted out since the end of December,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners in Pittsburgh. “It could disrupt the symbiosis between (China and the United States).”

Stocks sensitive to trade 

Trade-sensitive industrial and technology stocks marked the biggest percentage declines among the S&P 500’s major sectors. All 11 sectors were in the red, with only utilities and energy falling less than 1%.

Shares of Boeing Co., the largest U.S. exporter to China, slipped 3.9%, and shares of Caterpillar Inc., another industrial stalwart sensitive to China, declined 2.3%.

Among technology stocks, Microsoft Inc. shares slid 2.1%, while Apple Inc. shares dropped 2.7%. Apple and Microsoft were the top two drags on the S&P 500.

The CBOE Volatility Index, a gauge of investor anxiety, spiked to its highest level in more than three months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 473.39 points, or 1.79%, to 25,965.09, the S&P 500 lost 48.42 points, or 1.65%, to 2,884.05 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 159.53 points, or 1.96%, to 7,963.76.

Bright spots

In a bright spot, American International Group Inc. shares jumped 6.8% after the insurer reported a quarterly profit that blew past expectations.

With earnings season now in its homestretch, first-quarter profits are now expected to rise 1.2%, a sharp improvement from the 2.3% decline expected at the start of the earnings season.

Of the 414 S&P companies that have reported earnings so far, about 75% have surpassed analysts’ estimates, according to Refinitiv data.

Conversely, Mylan NV shares tumbled 23.8%, the most among S&P 500 companies, after the drugmaker reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue and failed to provide greater clarity on a potential revamp of the company’s strategy.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 4.13-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.32-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 62 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 7.8 billion shares, compared to the 6.71 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
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U.S. President Donald Trump’s intention to further hike U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods has alarmed American lawmakers of both parties who fear dire economic consequences from escalating tensions between the United States and its trading partners.

“I’m anxious for the tariff war to come to an end,” Republican Sen. Jerry Moran of agriculturally rich Kansas told VOA on Tuesday. “Exports are very important to the economy of my state. I would encourage the rapid resolution between the United States and China, because it has an immediate and consequential effect on the livelihoods of lots of people.”

“The [president’s] whole tariff policy has been dangerous folly,” New Jersey Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez said. “I hear it from New Jersey companies that recently, just this past week, told me about tariffs they have to pay on particular products that they can’t get anywhere else [but foreign suppliers].”

​Who’s paying?

On Sunday, Trump announced that tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods would rise from 10% to 25% as of Friday. He tweeted that “China has been paying” U.S. tariffs and that China’s “payments are partially responsible for our great economic results.”

Such assertions are disputed by many lawmakers, including Republicans who, on other matters, often come to the president’s defense.

“Currently, U.S. importers have paid the U.S. government over $16 billion in tariffs on imports from China,” Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Lankford said via Twitter. “This tax is not paid for by Chinese exporters, this is all paid by U.S. importers.”

​Trade talks to continue

Despite Trump’s tariff threat, Chinese officials have signaled they intend to continue trade discussions with Washington, prompting some lawmakers to applaud what they see as the White House’s hardball negotiating stance toward Beijing.

“The only reason that China is at the [negotiating] table is because of these tariffs, let’s not kid ourselves,” Republican Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana said. “China has been cheating … and it’s got to stop. And President Trump has been the first president to call their hand.”

Some Democrats, meanwhile, credit Trump for confronting China over its trade practices but fault the strategy and tactics the president has employed.

“I commend President Trump for saying the status quo with China is not working,” Virginia Democratic Sen. John Warner said. “China is not playing by the rules, and my fear is the president may end up with a deal where the president sells an extra $100 billion of [American] soybeans, but these broader issues around technology … and [China’s] ongoing theft of intellectual property go unaddressed.”

“Tariff policy by tweet does not work,” said Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is seeking next year’s Democratic presidential nomination. “We’ve had two years of experience now [with Trump], and it just seems to be getting worse and worse.”

​Beyond China

Tariff concerns on Capitol Hill extend beyond China. A group of Republican lawmakers has urged Trump to halt tariffs targeting Canadian and Mexican goods, warning the measures could torpedo Congress’s consideration of a newly negotiated free trade pact between the United States and both nations.

Regarding the president’s new tariff threat on Chinese exports, some Republicans are willing to give the president the benefit of the doubt — for now.

“Perhaps the president is espousing additional tariffs for purposes of getting China’s attention and to negotiate an agreement. That would be a wonderful outcome,” Moran said. “The challenge is: it’s not just one country that can impose tariffs. So, when the United States [previously] imposed tariffs, China retaliated on products from the United States. And that is very damaging to the ability to earn a living.”
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German sports car maker and Volkswagen subsidiary Porsche will pay a 535-million-euro ($598 million) fine over diesel vehicles that emitted more harmful pollutants than allowed, Stuttgart prosecutors said Tuesday.

“The Stuttgart prosecutor’s office has levied a 535-million-euro fine against Porsche AG for negligence in quality control,” the investigators said.

Porsche “abstained from a legal challenge” against the decision, the prosecutors office added.

Tuesday’s levy against Porsche is the latest in a string of fines against VW over its years-long “dieselgate” scandal.

The auto behemoth admitted in 2015 to manipulating 11 million vehicles worldwide to appear less polluting in laboratory tests than they were in real driving conditions.

Following fines against VW, high-end subsidiary Audi and now Porsche, no further investigations over “administrative offences” remain open against the group, a spokesman told AFP.

But legal proceedings against individuals, including former chief executive Martin Winterkorn, remain open.

Meanwhile, thousands of investors are suing the company for the losses they suffered on its shares when news of the scandal broke, while hundreds of thousands of drivers are also demanding compensation.

In its own statement, Porsche said the negligence punished by prosecutors was identified “several levels below the board.”

The firm also said that the cost of the fine was included in a provision of around one billion euros booked by the VW group in the first quarter.

So far the total costs of “dieselgate” for the Wolfsburg-based behemoth have mounted to 30 billion euros.

Shares in VW were down 2.2 percent around 2:00 pm in Frankfurt (1200 GMT) at 154.10 euros, against a DAX index of blue-chip shares down 0.7 percent.
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U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Tuesday that American technologies and expertise could play an important role in developing India’s economy, but were facing significant barriers to accessing its markets.

Ross told a gathering of business leaders in New Delhi that foreign companies were at a disadvantage due to India’s tariff and non-tariff barriers and myriad regulations.

Ross said India was already the world’s third largest economy and by 2030 it would become the world’s largest consumer market because of the rapid growth of its middle class. “Yet today, India is only the U.S 13th largest export market due to overly restrictive market access barriers.”

Meanwhile, the United States is India’s largest export market, accounting for something like 20 percent of the total. “That’s a real imbalance, and it’s an imbalance we must drive to counter,” he said.

He noted that India’s average applied tariff rate is 13.8 percent, the highest of any major world economy.

India’s Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu said India would like to work with the United States to resolve such issues in a way that benefits both countries.

“We will address the issues with the United States in a manner that will make this relationship better not just between the United States and India, but for the rest of the world as well,” Prabhu said.

Ross said that American companies now have a unique opportunity to increase defense technology sales to India which in turn would help balance the trade relationship between the two countries.

Bilateral trade in goods and services registered a 12.6% rise to $142 billion in 2018.

Exports of U.S. goods and services to India reached $58.9 billion in 2018, up 19% from 2017, according to the U.S. Embassy.

India offers business opportunities in the sectors of aerospace, defense, energy, health care and environmental technologies.

Representatives of more than 100 U.S. companies are visiting India as part of the U.S. Department of Commerce’s largest annual trade mission program, Trade Winds. They’re looking for opportunities in aerospace, defense, energy, health care and environmental technologies.

The delegation met with government leaders, market experts and potential business partners in New Delhi on Tuesday. They also will visit Ahmadabad, Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad.

 
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China has confirmed that its top trade negotiator will travel to the United States to conduct a new round of trade talks later this week, even after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods after he complained the process is taking too long.

The Commerce Ministry issued a statement Tuesday that Vice Premier Liu He, President Xi Jinping’s top economic advisor, will meet with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for two days of talks beginning Thursday.

Trump’s Twitter comments on Sunday about the new tariffs sent Asian stocks and U.S. futures tumbling Monday and added uncertainty over the future of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Despite the market drop, China’s official media stayed silent on Trump’s comments all morning.

Hours later, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters that China is “trying to get more information” about Trump’s comments about new tariffs but stressed that Beijing’s negotiating team is still preparing to travel to the U.S. for talks this week. Geng did not say whether Vice Premier Liu would lead the delegation.

“The tweet is a big wrench in China’s foreign trade policy,” Nick Marro, analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU), told VOA. “There were a lot of expectations that at least the groundwork for a deal will be finalized this week,” he said, explaining why Beijing should be upset by the new threat.

Tweet with teeth

In his tweet, Trump said he would increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent on Friday. This would reverse a decision Washington took last February to keep it at 10 percent in the midst of trade talks.

“The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!,” Trump said, expressing dissatisfaction about the pace of trade negotiations and what he considered a Chinese attempt to renegotiate some aspects of the proposed deal.

Lighthizer on Monday confirmed that tariffs will be imposed Friday. He and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told reporters Trump had learned over the weekend that Chinese officials “were trying to go back on some of the language” that had been negotiated in 10 earlier rounds of talks. They did not offer details.

Trump also said his policy of hiking taxes on Chinese goods had paid dividends.

“These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results,” he said.

He went further, saying another $325 billion of Chinese goods which “remain untaxed” will be taxed at 25 percent. He did not specify a timeline for making this change.

Unaffected stance

In its response Monday, the Chinese foreign ministry expressed hope that there is no change in the situation, and the two countries will continue to strive for an end to the trade war.

“What is of vital importance is that we still hope the United States can work hard with China to meet each other half way, and strive to reach a mutually beneficial, win-win agreement on the basis of mutual respect,” Geng said.

Echoing China’s confidence that trade talks would not be disrupted by Trump’s tweet, Shanghai-based expert Shen Dingli said, “China and the U.S. have big and overlapping stakes in bilateral trade. They will overcome any difficulties for a successful outcome of the trade talks.”

 
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The United States will impose a 17.5 percent tariff on Mexican tomato imports starting on Tuesday, as the two countries were unable to renew a 2013 agreement that suspended a U.S. anti-dumping investigation, a Mexican official said on Monday.

The U.S. Commerce Department said in early February that the United States would resume an anti-dumping investigation into Mexican tomatoes, withdrawing from a so-called suspension agreement that halted the anti-dumping case as long as Mexican producers sold their tomatoes above a pre-determined price. U.S. growers and lawmakers say that deal has failed.

At the time, Commerce said it was giving the required 90-day notice before terminating the six-year-old agreement.

“As of tomorrow a tariff of 17.5 percent will be applied on the value of the product … Mexican exporters will be affected, it’s going to affect their financial flows but that is going to be directly transferred to U.S. consumers,” said Mexican Deputy Economy Minister Luz Maria de la Mora.

She added that the U.S. measures will remain in place until a new suspension agreement is reached.

“We’re very disappointed but the good news is that negotiations continue, looking for a solution. And we hope that in the coming weeks we can in fact reach an agreement,” said de la Mora.

Mexico exports around $2 billion worth of tomatoes to the United States annually, according to de la Mora.

A trade war over tomatoes was averted twice since the 1990s, most recently in the 2013 deal that put a price floor on Mexican tomatoes sold in the United States while barring U.S. growers from pursuing anti-dumping charges against Mexican exporters.

Fruit and vegetable growers in the southeastern U.S. had persuaded the Trump administration to seek the ability to impose seasonal anti-dumping duties against Mexican produce in negotiations to update the North American Free Trade Agreement.

But this demand was withdrawn in the final talks over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal reached last October.

A month later, the Florida Tomato Exchange, which represents growers in the state, had petitioned the Commerce Department to terminate the 2013 tomato pact. It argued that the agreement could not be enforced and contained too many loopholes through which Mexican growers could dump tomatoes in the U.S. market.
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