Australia’s plan to ban children from social media proves popular, problematic

MELBOURNE, Australia — How do you remove children from the harms of social media? Politically the answer appears simple in Australia, but practically the solution could be far more difficult.

The Australian government’s plan to ban children from social media platforms including X, TikTok, Facebook and Instagram until their 16th birthdays is politically popular. The opposition party says it would have done the same after winning elections due within months if the government hadn’t moved first.

The leaders of all eight Australian states and mainland territories have unanimously backed the plan, although Tasmania, the smallest state, would have preferred the threshold was set at 14.

But a vocal assortment of experts in the fields of technology and child welfare have responded with alarm. More than 140 such experts signed an open letter to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese condemning the 16-year age limit as “too blunt an instrument to address risks effectively.”

Details of what is proposed and how it will be implemented are scant. More will be known when legislation is introduced into the Parliament next week.

The concerned teen

Leo Puglisi, a 17-year-old Melbourne student who founded online streaming service 6 News Australia at the age of 11, laments that lawmakers imposing the ban lack the perspective on social media that young people have gained by growing up in the digital age.

“With respect to the government and prime minister, they didn’t grow up in the social media age, they’re not growing up in the social media age, and what a lot of people are failing to understand here is that, like it or not, social media is a part of people’s daily lives,” Leo said.

“It’s part of their communities, it’s part of work, it’s part of entertainment, it’s where they watch content – young people aren’t listening to the radio or reading newspapers or watching free-to-air TV – and so it can’t be ignored. The reality is this ban, if implemented, is just kicking the can down the road for when a young person goes on social media,” Leo added.

Leo has been applauded for his work online. He was a finalist in his home state Victoria’s nomination for the Young Australian of the Year award, which will be announced in January. His nomination bid credits his platform with “fostering a new generation of informed, critical thinkers.”

The grieving mom-turned-activist

One of the proposal’s supporters, cyber safety campaigner Sonya Ryan, knows from personal tragedy how dangerous social media can be for children.

Her 15-year-old daughter Carly Ryan was murdered in 2007 in South Australia state by a 50-year-old pedophile who pretended to be a teenager online. In a grim milestone of the digital age, Carly was the first person in Australia to be killed by an online predator.

“Kids are being exposed to harmful pornography, they’re being fed misinformation, there are body image issues, there’s sextortion, online predators, bullying. There are so many different harms for them to try and manage and kids just don’t have the skills or the life experience to be able to manage those well,” Sonya Ryan said.

“The result of that is we’re losing our kids. Not only what happened to Carly, predatory behavior, but also we’re seeing an alarming rise in suicide of young people,” she added.

Sonya Ryan is part of a group advising the government on a national strategy to prevent and respond to child sexual abuse in Australia.

She wholeheartedly supports Australia setting the social media age limit at 16.

“We’re not going to get this perfect,” she said. “We have to make sure that there are mechanisms in place to deal with what we already have which is an anxious generation and an addicted generation of children to social media.”

A major concern for social media users of all ages is the legislation’s potential privacy implications.

Age estimation technology has proved inaccurate, so digital identification appears to be the most likely option for assuring a user is at least 16.

Australia’s eSafety Commissioner, an office that describes itself as the world’s first government agency dedicated to keeping people safer online, has suggested in planning documents adopting the role of authenticator. The government would hold the identity data and the platforms would discover through the commissioner whether a potential account holder was 16.

The skeptical internet expert

Tama Leaver, professor of internet studies at Curtin University, fears that the government will make the platforms hold the users’ identification data instead.

The government has already said the onus will be on the platforms, rather than on children or their parents, to ensure everyone meets the age limit.

“The worst possible outcome seems to be the one that the government may be inadvertently pushing towards, which would be that the social media platforms themselves would end up being the identity arbiter,” Leaver said.

“They would be the holder of identity documents which would be absolutely terrible because they have a fairly poor track record so far of holding on to personal data well,” he added.

The platforms will have a year once the legislation has become law to work out how the ban can be implemented.

Ryan, who divides her time between Adelaide in South Australia and Fort Worth, Texas, said privacy concerns should not stand in the way of removing children from social media.

“What is the cost if we don’t? If we don’t put the safety of our children ahead of profit and privacy?” she asked. 

Pacific atolls face risk from rising seas

A study by the World Bank on Thursday said urgent action is needed to address rising sea levels in the Pacific atoll islands of Kiribati, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, which under current projections could be 50% to 80% submerged in the next 50 years.

The World Bank’s “Pacific Atoll Countries Country Climate and Development Report” says the low-lying nations and the roughly 200,000 people who live on them face some of the most severe existential threats from climate change of any region in the world.

The study cites projected sea level rises of up to a half meter in the last half of this century and suggests 50% to 80% of major urban areas in the countries could be underwater.

The region is already seeing annual losses from climate events — such as more frequent and powerful storms — equivalent to 7% of the total economic output in Tuvalu. About 3% to 4% of output in the Marshall Islands and Kiribati are projected to increase.

The bank said that without urgent global and local action, a 1-in-20-year climate event in Tuvalu could lead to damage and losses equivalent to 50% of current annual output by 2050.

The study makes near-, medium- and long-term recommendations for the island nations. The near- and medium-term suggestions include investments in sustainable construction to protect freshwater resources, fisheries and energy supplies, among other crucial infrastructure.

The study’s long-term suggestions include investments in education, legal and regulatory frameworks, economic development and climate resilience.

The study also called on the international donor community to make contributions to the Pacific atoll countries, which still face a significant climate funding gap.

The World Bank produces diagnostic country climate and development reports, CCDRs, that integrate climate change and development considerations and suggest concrete actions that countries can take to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The bank has completed over 45 CCDRs around the world as of October 2024.

EU fines Meta $840 million over abusive practices benefiting Facebook Marketplace

Brussels — The European Commission on Thursday fined Meta Platforms $840.24 million over abusive practices benefiting Facebook Marketplace, it said in a statement, confirming an earlier report by Reuters.

“The European Commission has fined Meta … for breaching EU antitrust rules by tying its online classified ads service Facebook Marketplace to its personal social network Facebook and by imposing unfair trading conditions on other online classified ads service providers,” the European Commission said.

Meta said it will appeal the decision, but in the meantime, it will comply and will work quickly and constructively to launch a solution which addresses the points raised.

The move by the European Commission comes two years after it accused the U.S. tech giant of giving its classified ads service Facebook Marketplace an unfair advantage by bundling the two services together.

The European Union opened formal proceedings into possible anticompetitive conduct of Facebook in June, 2021, and in December, 2022, raised concerns that Meta ties its dominant social network Facebook to its online classified ad services.

Facebook launched Marketplace in 2016 and expanded into several European countries a year later.

The EU decision argues that Meta imposes Facebook Marketplace on people who use Facebook in an illegal “tie” but Meta said that argument ignores the fact that Facebook users can choose whether to engage with Marketplace, and many do not.

Meta said the Commission claimed that Marketplace had the potential to hinder the growth of large incumbent online marketplaces in the EU but could not find any evidence of harm to competitors.

Companies risk fines of as much as 10% of their global turnover for EU antitrust violations.

Foreign acquisition of US Steel faces cooler temperatures after presidential election

Before the U.S. presidential election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump opposed a Japanese company’s planned $14 billion purchase of U.S. Steel, a once-iconic pillar of America’s industrial age. With the election over, there are indications that the deal may go through. VOA Chief National Correspondent Steve Herman went to Braddock, Pennsylvania, to gauge local sentiment to the acquisition. Videographer: Adam Greenbaum

WHO links forced Afghan repatriation from Pakistan to polio resurgence

Islamabad — The World Health Organization has labeled a forced repatriation of Afghan nationals from Pakistan as a “major setback” for polio eradication efforts, contributing to the regional resurgence of the paralytic disease.

Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan are the only two polio-endemic nations, reporting 49 and 23 cases respectively, so far this year, up from only six cases each in 2023. 

The latest case in Pakistan was confirmed Thursday in the southwestern province of Balochistan, which sits on the Afghan border and accounts for half the cases reported in 2024.

“Until you get rid of polio completely, it will resurge and come back, and this is what we are seeing now in Pakistan [where] nearly half of the districts are infected, and in Afghanistan, a third of the provinces are infected,” Hamid Jafari, the WHO director for the Eastern Mediterranean, said Wednesday while discussing causes of polio resurgence in both countries. 

“I think the major setback was a forced repatriation of Afghan nationals that led to a massive and unpredictable movement of populations within Pakistan and across both borders and within Afghanistan, so the virus moved with these populations,” Jafari told the virtual discussion hosted by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, or GPEI. 

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has said that Pakistan’s crackdown on undocumented foreign nationals has resulted in more than 730,000 Afghan migrants returning to Afghanistan since August 2023.

Jafari also mentioned other factors contributing to the rise of polio in Pakistan, including authorities’ inability to consistently carry out vaccination campaigns in areas affected by militancy, where children cannot be effectively immunized against the crippling disease. He also highlighted the presence of “significant vaccine hesitancy and community boycotts” rooted in public frustration over the lack of essential services in impoverished districts.

Pakistani and WHO officials say vaccine boycotts in some regions also result from the false propaganda that anti-polio campaigns are a Western plot to sterilize Muslim children. Additionally, anti-government militants in violence-hit regions occasionally stage deadly attacks on polio teams, suspecting them of spying for authorities, routinely disrupting vaccination drives in districts near the Afghan border. 

Afghan polio ban

While sharing the latest polio situation in Afghanistan, the senior WHO official stated they are collaborating with various humanitarian actors and partners to promote vaccination against polio and all other diseases.

“We cannot implement house-to-house vaccination,” Jafari stated, referencing the ban imposed by Taliban authorities on polio teams over security concerns. 

“The program is working closely with [Taliban] authorities to re-update micro plans and work closely with the communities and local officials to make sure children are mobilized to vaccination sites,” he added. 

In September, the Taliban abruptly halted house-to-house vaccine deliveries in parts of southern Afghanistan, including Kandahar, without publicly stating any reason. 

An independent monitoring board of the GPEI recently said that the Taliban’s action had stemmed from their “administration’s concerns about covert surveillance activities.” The report quoted de facto Afghan authorities as explaining that their leadership is living in Kandahar and has concerns about their security.

Jafari stated that Pakistan and Afghanistan are taking measures to address the challenges in their bid “to rebuild community confidence” and work closely with security agencies in both countries to be able to access all children. 

He cautioned that the current resurgence of polio in Pakistan and Afghanistan does not guarantee a low point next year.

“We are confident that we will come very close to elimination, but the key is to make sure that in these final safe havens for poliovirus in insecure areas, among migrant and mobile populations, and vaccine-hesitant communities, we can finally overcome these residual challenges to make sure that finally polio is eradicated,” the regional WHO director said. 

Polio once paralyzed an estimated 20,000 children in Pakistan each year until the country initiated national vaccination campaigns in the 1990s to control the infections, according to the WHO. In 2019, there were 176 reported cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In 2021 and 2022, however, the countries reported only one and two infections, respectively.

Analysts skeptical about African impact of China’s zero-tariff offer

NEW DELHI — Analysts interviewed by VOA expressed skepticism over China’s recent decision to eliminate tariffs for goods from least developed countries with diplomatic relations with Bejing, including 33 in Africa, next month.

The move was announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing in early September.

The analysts see it as an effort to expand China’s influence in Africa without bringing much benefit to the LDCs.

“This move has not generated the excitement it should, due to well-known structural difficulties in Africa,” Emmanuel Owusu-Sekyere, director of research, policy and programs at the African Center for Economic Transformation in Accra, Ghana, told VOA.

“Cooperation between China and Africa has benefitted China much more than it has Africa,” he said, adding, “Africa has given China unbridled access to its markets, which has crippled local production capacity in several aspects of the manufacturing sector e.g., textiles.”

Xi described the zero-tariffs plan as making China the first major economy to take such a step to offer Africa a substantial opportunity to do business in the large Chinese market.

Analysts see it as Beijing’s attempt to compete with the United States. The U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for more than 1,800 products from 32 sub-Saharan African countries. It will come up for renewal next year. They say China is also trying to take advantage of resentment of some African countries barred from AGOA on such grounds as human rights or lack of democracy and free markets.

“China’s move to allow African LDCs to export tariff-free is clearly a move to project its power in an alternative world order,” said Samir Bhattacharya, associate fellow at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.

“The rigid policies of the U.S. have made some African countries averse towards it. China sees this as an opportunity to undermine the U.S.-led world order and promote its own narrow interests,” Bhattacharya said.

“China has reworked its trade basket to lure African leaders,” he added.

“This scheme would offer additional support to dictators and military leaders in African countries who are not comfortable with the U.S.,” he said. “It would not improve the economy of these countries.”

China’s viewpoint

Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yongqian has said that the initiative would boost LDC exports. It will also promote solidarity and cooperation among the countries of the Global South and advance the goal of “inclusive and equitable economic globalization,” she said.

She said China has signed framework agreements on economic partnership for common development with 22 African countries, including Ethiopia, Burundi, Gabon and Zimbabwe.

However, Owusu-Sekyere expressed a different view.

“African countries are not strategically located in Asian production value chains like Bangladesh and Vietnam. Lack of strategic positioning and planning as well as structural bottlenecks will make it difficult for African countries to take advantage of this plan,” Owusu-Sekyere said.

Every time China’s government enters into a trade or investment agreement with another country, Chinese entrepreneurs usually rush to grab the business opportunities created by the deal. This has been the experience of several countries in Africa and Asia that have received Chinese investments.

Owusu-Sekyere said several African countries have enacted laws reserving the retail sector exclusively for locals but it has been taken over in those countries by Chinese entrepreneurs using local partners as fronts.

The bigger challenge for African countries are nontariff barriers related to such things as quality, he said.

“African economies are not diversified enough to supply at the quality and scale required to meet the sophisticated and diverse demands of a huge market as China.” according to Owusu-Sekyere. 

For 3rd straight year, no improvement in Earth’s projected warming

BAKU, Azerbaijan — For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven’t lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — and recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook, according to an analysis Thursday.

The analysis comes as countries come together for the 29th edition of the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, where nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.

But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming.

If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations known as COP are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.

“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions … to me it feels broken,” Hare said.

Climate action is stifled by the biggest emitters

The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. That’s near the 1.5-degree limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.

Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.

One projected track based on what countries promise to do by 2030 is up to 2.6 degrees Celsius, a tenth of a degree warmer than before. And even the analysts’ most optimistic scenario, which assumes that countries all deliver on their promises and targets, is at 1.9 Celsius, also up a tenth of a degree from last year, said study lead author Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics, one of the main groups behind the tracker.

“This is driven highly by China,” Gonzales-Zuniga said. Even though China’s fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.

Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the U.S. elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That’s not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in American financial aid could also reverberate even more in future temperature outlooks.

“For the U.S. it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.

“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down” and they are not, Hare said. “In the face of all of the climate disasters we’ve observed, whether it’s the massive floods in Nepal that killed hundreds of people or whether it’s the floods in Valencia, Spain, that just killed hundreds of people. The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”

Experts say $1 trillion is needed in climate cash for developing nation

The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will help poor countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming’s extreme weather. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku’s main focus is coming up with a new, bigger figure.

A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.

“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.

A coalition of poor nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance. The independent experts’ report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.

The report detailed how expensive decarbonizing the world’s economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Overall climate adaption spending for all countries is projected to reach $2.4 trillion a year.

“The transition to clean, low-carbon energy, building resilience to the impacts of climate change, coping with loss and damage, protecting nature and biodiversity, and ensuring a just transition, require a rapid step-up in investment in all countries,” said the report.

World’s largest coral discovered in Solomon Islands

Washington — National Geographic scientists say they’ve discovered the world’s largest coral near the remote Solomon Islands in the Pacific Ocean — an undersea mass that is so big, it can be seen from space.

The man who found it, Manu San Felix, director of cinematography for National Geographic Society’s Pristine Seas, a program dedicated to marine conservation, says the giant organism measures 34 meters wide and 32 meters long and is “close to the size of a cathedral.”

“I see this as a living library that has the information of the conditions of the oceans for centuries,” he told reporters this week, underscoring it is a reminder of the need to better protect the ocean from global climate change.

Eric Brown, a Pristine Seas coral scientist, said the enormous coral species, Pavona clavus, is healthy and has “high reproductive potential,” making it essential to help other coral reef ecosystems recover from the damage of a warming ocean.

Corals “are very vulnerable ecosystems. So, it’s important for us to do whatever we can to protect these environments that are both small and mighty,” Brown said at a Tuesday press briefing to announce the find.

The announcement comes as world leaders gather for the United Nations climate conference, known as COP29, in Azerbaijan. Attendees are trying to agree on new mechanisms to finance a global energy transition to renewables and help nations like the Pacific Islands pay for the cost of adapting to rising oceans.

Pristine Seas is also encouraging nations to designate marine protected areas, or MPAs. The goal is to protect 30% of the world’s oceans by 2030.

Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. is attending the summit. Palau has walled off 80% of its waters to development, while the nearby Pacific Island nation of Niue has designated 40% of its waters for protection.

“It cannot just be big countries. Small countries need to do their part,” he told VOA in an interview. “So, it’s all of us working together … protecting our oceans, because we know that healthy oceans are an important part of the ecosystem and important in regulating climate.”

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele agreed.

“Our survival depends on healthy coral reefs, so this exciting discovery underlines the importance of protecting and sustaining them for future generations,” he said in a press release.

But so far, the Solomon Islands has created a network of 79 designated ocean conservation areas — less than 1% of its exclusive economic zone. What’s more, its economy is largely dependent on forestry — the very industry that threatens the viability of coral through sedimentation.

“All that sediment is going onto a reef, and it’s smothering the reef, thereby preventing the corals from being able to feed, to grow, to reproduce,” Molly Timmers, Pristine Seas lead scientist on the Solomon Islands, said at the press briefing.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, an online platform that seeks to visualize the distribution of international trade, the Solomons exported $308 million in rough wood in 2022, with $260 million of it going to China.

VOA asked Chief Dennis Marita, director of culture at the Ministry of Culture & Tourism, how the government can find a balance.

“Much of the logging activities are happening on the mainland” away from the coral, Marita said in an interview, but “there needs to be a serious awareness about the impacts of what’s happening in the logging industry to the marine environment.”

Marita sees this coral discovery as a way to attract researchers, biologists and tourists to bring in revenue to the small island nation of 740,000 people. Earlier this week, the Solomon Islands signed an agreement with China to provide visa-free travel between the two countries.

“Suddenly, people will start coming to the island, but then we need to be prepared for them, and also, we need to ensure that the coral is safeguarded,” Marita said.

Dr. Daniel Barshis of Old Dominion University’s Ecological Sciences Department in Norfolk, Virginia, said that idea has merit.

“I would imagine this discovery would draw tourists to the area, similar to how old-growth trees inspire folks to visit,” he told VOA via email.

“The fact that [corals] like this still exist is a reminder that coral reefs are still surviving and deserve us working as hard as we possibly can to save them from some of the worst-case scenarios if we don’t reverse course on greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible,” said Barshis.

William Yang contributed to this report.

In photos: World’s largest coral discovered in Solomon Islands

The world’s largest coral colony has been discovered near the remote Solomon Islands in the Pacific Ocean – an undersea mass that is so big, it can be seen from space, National Geographic scientists announced Nov. 12, 2024.   

Sierra Leone begins to vaccinate health care workers against Ebola

Authorities in Sierra Leone have launched an Ebola vaccination campaign targeting at least 5,000 health workers. Many health workers caught the Ebola virus during the outbreak that hit West Africa a decade ago. Victoria Amunga reports from Kenema, Sierra Leone. Camera: Jimmy Makhulo.

US overdose deaths down, giving experts hope for enduring decline

NEW YORK — The decline in U.S. drug overdose deaths appears to have continued this year, giving experts hope the nation is seeing sustained improvement in the persistent epidemic. 

There were about 97,000 overdose deaths in the 12-month period that ended June 30, according to provisional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released Wednesday. That’s down 14% from the estimated 113,000 for the previous 12-month period. 

“This is a pretty stunning and rapid reversal of drug overdose mortality numbers,” said Brandon Marshall, a Brown University researcher who studies overdose trends. 

Overdose death rates began steadily climbing in the 1990s because of opioid painkillers, followed by waves of deaths led by other opioids like heroin and — more recently — illicit fentanyl. Provisional data had indicated a slight decline for 2023, and the tally released Wednesday showed that the downward trend has kept going. 

Of course, there have been moments in the last several years when U.S. overdose deaths seemed to have plateaued or even started to go down, only to rise again, Marshall noted. 

“This seems to be substantial and sustained,” Marshall said. “I think there’s real reason for hope here.” 

Experts aren’t certain about the reasons for the decline, but they cite a combination of possible factors. 

One is COVID-19. In the worst days of the pandemic, addiction treatment was hard to get, and people were socially isolated — with no one around to help if they overdosed. 

“During the pandemic we saw such a meteoric rise in drug overdose deaths that it’s only natural we would see a decrease,” said Farida Ahmad of the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. 

Still, overdose deaths are well above what they were at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The recent numbers could represent the fruition of years of efforts to increase the availability of the overdose-reversing drug naloxone, and addiction treatments such as buprenorphine, said Erin Winstanley, a University of Pittsburgh professor who researches drug overdose trends. 

Marshall said such efforts likely are being aided by money from settlements of opioid-related lawsuits, brought by state, local and Native American governments against drugmakers, wholesalers and pharmacies. Settlement funds have been rolling out to small towns and big cities across the U.S., and some have started spending the money on naloxone and other measures. 

Some experts have wondered about changes in the drug supply. Xylazine, a sedative, has been increasingly detected in illegally manufactured fentanyl, and experts are sorting out exactly how it’s affecting overdoses. 

In the latest CDC data, overdose death reports are down in 45 states. Increases occurred in Alaska, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and Washington. 

The most dramatic decreases were seen in North Carolina and Ohio, but CDC officials voiced a note of caution. Some jurisdictions have had lags in getting death records to federal statisticians — particularly North Carolina, where death investigations have slowed because of understaffing at the state medical examiner’s office. The CDC made estimates to try to account for incomplete death records, but the decline in some places may ultimately turn out not to be as dramatic as initial numbers suggest. 

Another limitation of the provisional data is that it doesn’t detail what’s happening in different groups of people. Recent research noted the overdose deaths in Black and Native Americans have been growing disproportionately larger. 

“We really need more data from the CDC to learn whether these declines are being experienced in all racial ethnic subgroups,” Marshall said.

Bain: Global luxury sales to fall 2% in 2024, among weakest years on record

Sales of personal luxury goods are set to fall 2% this year, making it one of the weakest on record, with price hikes and economic uncertainty shrinking the industry’s customer base, according to consultancy Bain & Company.

In its closely-watched report on the $386 billion global market, Bain estimated a 20-22% sales drop in China, which has turned into a drag after a years-long boom before the pandemic fueled by the wealthy and growing middle-class.

The forecasts include the effect of currency moves.

“This is the first time the personal luxury goods industry has declined since the 2008-09 crisis, with the exception of the pandemic,” Bain partner Federica Levato told Reuters.

The study released on Wednesday will likely heighten concerns among investors that the sector’s current downturn, which has knocked shares in the likes of LVMH and Kering, may be longer and deeper than anticipated.

Global sales of luxury personal goods – spanning clothing, accessories and beauty products – are expected to be flat at constant exchange rates during the holiday season, with China’s performance still negative, Levato said.

A shift by brands to position their products within a higher price band, coupled with weaker consumer confidence amid wars, China’s economic woes and elections across the globe, has led many customers, especially younger ones, to forgo purchases.

“The luxury consumer base has declined by 50 million over the last two years, from a total of approximately 400 million consumers,” Levato said.

Growth prospects for the market hinge partly on the strategies brands choose to pursue, including on pricing, she added.

In a further sign that higher prices are holding back consumers, Bain said the outlet channel was outperforming, driven by shoppers’ quest for value.  

The personal luxury goods sector is expected to grow by between 0% and 4% at constant exchange rates in 2025, supported by sales in Europe and the Americas, with China seen recovering only in the second part of 2025, Bain said.  

Levato said Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election had removed one uncertainty, while possible interest rate and tax cuts could encourage Americans to spend more.  

In contrast to personal goods, luxury spending on experiences, such as hospitality and dining, is expected to increase this year, Bain said. 

At UN climate talks, nations big and small get chance to bear witness to climate change

BAKU, Azerbaijan — When more than two dozen world leaders deliver remarks at the United Nations’ annual climate conference on Wednesday, many have detailed their nations’ firsthand experience with the catastrophic weather that has come with climate change.

“Over the past year, catastrophic floods in Spain, Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as well as in southern Croatia have shown the devastating impact of rising temperatures,” said Croatia’s prime minister, Andrej Plenkovic. “The Mediterranean, one of the most vulnerable regions, calls for urgent action.”

The Greek prime minister said Europe and the world needs to be “more honest” about the trade-offs needed to keep global temperatures down.

“We need to ask hard questions about a path that goes very fast, at the expense of our competitiveness, and a path that goes some much slower, but allows our industry to adapt and to thrive,” he said. His nation this summer was hammered by successive heat waves after three years of below-average rainfall. In Greece, the misery included water shortages, dried-up lakes and the death of wild horses.

Other speakers on the list include Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose nation has seen deadly flooding this year from monsoon rains that scientists say have become heavier with climate change. Just two years ago, more than 1,700 people died in widespread flooding. Pakistan has also suffered from dangerous heat, with thousands of people hospitalized with heatstroke this spring as temperatures soared to 47 degrees Celsius.

Also on the list of speakers Wednesday is Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Edward Davis. Like many other countries in the Global South, the Bahamas has piled up debt from warming-connected weather disasters it did little to cause, including Hurricanes Dorian in 2019 and Matthew in 2016. Leaders have been seeking help and money from the Global North and oil companies.

Early on Wednesday, ministers and officials from African nations called for initiatives to advance green development on the continent and strengthen resilience to extreme weather events — from floods to droughts — across the region.

Plenty of big names and powerful countries are noticeably absent from COP29 this year. That includes the 13 largest carbon dioxide-polluting countries — a group responsible for more than than 70% of the heat-trapping gases emitted last year — were missing. The world’s biggest polluters and strongest economies — China and the United States — didn’t send their No. 1s. Neither did India and Indonesia.

But U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer was there, and he announced an 81% emissions reduction target on 1990 levels by 2035, in line with the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. That’s up from the 78% the U.K. had already pledged.

The main focus of this year’s talks is climate finance — wealthier nations compensating poor countries for damages from climate change’s weather extremes, helping them pay to transition their economies away from fossil fuels and helping them with adaptation.

Teen in critical condition with Canada’s first presumptive human case of bird flu

TORONTO, canada — A teenager is in critical condition in a British Columbia children’s hospital, sick with Canada’s first presumptive human case of avian influenza.

“This was a healthy teenager prior to this, so no underlying conditions,” said provincial health officer Bonnie Henry in a news conference on Tuesday. “It just reminds us that in young people this is a virus that can progress and cause quite severe illness, and the deterioration that I mentioned was quite rapid.”

British Columbia health officials said on Saturday the province had detected Canada’s first human case of H5 bird flu in a teenager.

Henry said the province is still identifying the exact strain but assumes the case is H5N1.

The World Health Organization says H5N1’s risk to humans is low because there is no evidence of human transmission, but the virus has been found in an increasing number of animals, including cattle in the United States.

Henry would not disclose the teen’s gender or age but said the patient had first developed symptoms on November 2 and was tested on November 8, when admitted to a hospital. Symptoms included conjunctivitis, fever and coughing.

As of Tuesday, the teen was hospitalized with acute respiratory distress syndrome, she said.

The teen had no farm exposure but had been exposed to dogs, cats and reptiles, Henry said. No infection source had been identified. “That is absolutely an ongoing investigation.”

More severe illness takes place when the virus binds to receptors deep in the lungs, she said.

Public health officials had identified and tested about three dozen contacts and had not found anyone infected with the virus.

There has been no evidence that the disease is easily spread between people. But if that were to happen, a pandemic could unfold, scientists have said.

Earlier in November, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked that farm workers exposed to animals with bird flu be tested for the virus even if they did not have symptoms.

Bird flu has infected nearly 450 dairy farms in 15 U.S. states since March, and the CDC has identified 46 human cases of bird flu since April.

In Canada, British Columbia has identified at least 26 affected premises across the province, Henry said Tuesday, and numerous wild birds have tested positive.

Canada has had no cases reported in dairy cattle and no evidence of bird flu in samples of milk.

Biggest name world leaders missing at UN climate talks, others fill the void

BAKU, Azerbaijan — World leaders are converging Tuesday at the United Nations annual climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan although the big names and powerful countries are noticeably absent, unlike past climate talks which had the star power of a soccer World Cup.

But 2024’s climate talks are more like the International Chess Federation world championship, lacking recognizable names but big on nerd power and strategy. The top leaders of the 13 largest carbon dioxide-polluting countries will not appear. Their nations are responsible for more than 70% of 2023’s heat-trapping gases.

The world’s biggest polluters and strongest economies — China and the United States — aren’t sending their No. 1s. India and Indonesia’s heads of state are also not in attendance, meaning the four most populous nations with more than 42% of all the world’s population aren’t having leaders speak.

“It’s symptomatic of the lack of political will to act. There’s no sense of urgency,” said climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. He said this explains “the absolute mess we’re finding ourselves in.”

Transition to clean energy

The world has witnessed the hottest day, months and year on record “and a master class in climate destruction,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the world leaders who did show up.

But Guterres held out hope, saying, in a veiled reference to Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States, that the “clean energy revolution is here. No group, no business, no government can stop it.”

United Nations officials said in 2016, when Trump was first elected, there were 180 gigawatts of clean energy and 700,000 electric vehicles in the world. Now there are 600 gigawatts of clean energy and 14 million electric vehicles.

Host Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev kicked off two scheduled days of world leaders’ speeches by lambasting Armenia, western news media, climate activists and critics who highlighted his country’s rich oil and gas history and trade, calling them hypocritical since the United States is the world’s biggest oil producer. He said it was “not fair” to call Azerbaijan a “petrostate” because it produces less than 1% of the world’s oil and gas.

Oil and gas are “a gift of the God” just like the sun, wind and minerals, Aliyev said. “Countries should not be blamed for having them. And should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market because the market needs them.”

As the host and president of the climate talks, called COP29, Aliyev said his country will push hard for a green transition away from fossil fuels, “but at the same time, we must be realistic.”

Lack of star power

Aliyev, United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are the headliners of around 50 leaders set to speak on Tuesday.

There’ll also be a strong showing from the leaders of some of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. Several small island nations presidents and over a dozen leaders from countries across Africa are set to speak over the two-day World Leaders’ Summit at COP29.

As a sense of how the bar for celebrity has lowered, on Tuesday morning photographers and video cameras ran alongside one leader walking through the halls of the meeting. It was the emergency management minister for host country Azerbaijan.

United Nations officials downplayed the lack of head of state star power, saying that every country is represented and active in the climate talks.

One logistical issue is that next week, the leaders of the most powerful countries have to be half a world away in Brazil for the G20 meetings. The United States recent election, Germany’s government collapse, natural disasters and personal illnesses also have kept some leaders away.

The major focus of the negotiations is climate finance, which is rich nations trying to help poor countries pay for transitioning their economies away from fossil fuels, coping with climate change’s upcoming harms and compensating for damages from weather extremes.

Nations are negotiating over huge amounts of money, anywhere from $100 billion a year to $1.3 trillion a year. That money “is not charity, it’s an investment,” Guterres said.

“Developing countries must not leave Baku empty-handed,” Guterres said. “A deal is a must.”

China’s largest air show takes off with fighter jets, attack drones

Zhuhai, China — Stealth fighter jets and attack drones took center stage as China’s largest air show officially opened on Tuesday, an opportunity for Beijing to showcase its growing military might to potential customers and rivals alike.

China has poured resources into modernizing and expanding its aviation capabilities as it faces off against the United States and others around regional flashpoints like Taiwan.

Record numbers of Chinese warplanes have been sent around the self-ruled democratic island, which Beijing claims as its territory, over the past few years.

The star of Airshow China, which showcases Beijing’s civil and military aerospace sector every two years in the southern city of Zhuhai, is the new J-35A stealth fighter jet.

Its inclusion in the airshow suggests it is nearly ready to enter operation, which would make China the only country other than the United States to have two stealth fighters in action, experts said.

The J-35A is lighter than China’s existing model, the J20, and looks more similar in design to a US F-35.

A group of J20s performed a display flight on Tuesday morning, flying in a diamond formation across a grey sky.

State news agency Xinhua quoted military expert Wang Mingzhi as saying the combination of the two models greatly enhances the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)’s “ability to conduct offensive operations in high-threat and contested environments.”

Attack drones

The airshow will feature a dedicated drone zone for the first time, reflecting their increased prominence in warzones, including Ukraine.

The SS-UAV — a massive mothership that can rapidly release swarms of smaller drones for intelligence gathering, as well as strikes — will be on display in Zhuhai, according to the South China Morning Post.

In October the United States unveiled sanctions targeting China-based companies linked to the production of drones that Russia has deployed in Ukraine.

Moscow and Beijing have deepened military and defense ties since Russia’s invasion of its neighbor three years ago, and the secretary of its Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, is due to visit Zhuhai.

This year the show’s focus is squarely on the military sector, as it coincides with the 75th anniversary of the PLAAF, but China’s burgeoning space industry will also be showcasing developments.

A model of a homegrown reusable space cargo shuttle will debut at the show, Xinhua reported on Monday.

Named Haoloong, the shuttle is designed to be launched on a commercial rocket, and then dock with China’s space station Tiangong.

“It can re-enter the atmosphere, fly and land horizontally at a designated airport, allowing for recovery and reuse,” Xinhua said.

Beijing has poured huge resources into its space program over the past decade in an effort to catch up to traditional space powers the United States and Russia.

Web Summit kicks off in Lisbon as tech leaders weigh Trump’s return

LISBON, PORTUGAL — Lisbon will this week play host to Europe’s biggest annual tech conference, Web Summit, where industry leaders and lawmakers will weigh the pros and cons of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Senior executives from firms such as Apple, Microsoft, and Meta will join high-ranking officials from Europe for debates about the future of artificial intelligence, social media regulation, and the impact a second Trump presidency may have on the continent.

Trump has previously promised he could end the war between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours of taking office. Days after Trump’s re-election, two senior Ukrainian government officials, Alex Bornyakov and Mykhailo Fedorov, will take to the stage to discuss how the country has continued innovating in the face of conflict.

John Adam, chief revenue officer at software development firm Aimsoftpro, is among those attending. About 70% of the company’s workforce is still based in Ukraine, with the rest having relocated around Europe after the war’s outbreak in 2022.

“There’s mixed feelings because the Trump approach looks like it’s more geared towards the present lines of conflict, which is not an ideal scenario for Ukraine, and there’s a reluctance to accept that. At the same time, we would like this to have an endpoint,” he said.

The X factor

While not expected to attend, tech billionaire and vocal Trump supporter Elon Musk will be a recurring theme, from his role in Ukraine via satellite service Starlink to his success with space exploration firm SpaceX and controversial stewardship of social media platform X, formerly Twitter.

One panel will debate how Europe might develop a homegrown rival to SpaceX; another whether Musk “destroyed Twitter.” Joe Benarroch, who quit his role as X’s de facto spokesperson and head of business operations in June, will join a panel titled “What to do about social media.”

While the EU has tried forcing online platforms to clamp down on harmful content, Trump’s election may lead to them reducing moderation efforts, according to Mark Weinstein, founder of privacy-focused social media platform MeWe, who will share the stage with Benarroch on Wednesday.

“Historically, Trump has been highly critical of online moderation,” he said. “To avoid political retribution, major social networks are likely to continue the trend of becoming significantly more permissive with content they allow on their platforms.”

Mexico City’s floating gardens in peril

MEXICO CITY — Cassandra Garduño squinted in the sunlight, her pink boots smudged by dirt as she gazed out over her family’s chinampa — one of the islands first built up by the Aztecs with fertile mud from the bottom of a lake that, later drained, would one day become Mexico City.

Food from these islands has fed people for hundreds of years, but the chinampas are under threat from urbanization. The produce grown here doesn’t fetch much money, and many families are abandoning the ancient practice to rent out or sell their land for more lucrative uses such as soccer fields.

“People don’t want to farm anymore,” said Garduño. “They don’t see it as a necessity, they don’t want to produce, and people don’t want to buy the products.”

Some of those remaining, like Garduño, are banding together to preserve and promote the traditional use of the chinampas.

“None of this can exist without human hands, the hands of those who worked here and created the chinampa a thousand years ago,” she said on a recent morning as the smell of celery growing nearby filled the air.

The gardens crisscrossed by canals in the capital’s southern Xochimilco borough are built up from layers of dredged soil, held together by tall, thin ahuejotes — a kind of willow tree — planted around their perimeter. Xochimilco has more than 2,500 acres of protected land owned by generations of local chinamperos, as those who farm the islands are known.

Garduño’s earliest memories of her family’s chinampa came from peering through her grandparents’ window at the plot of land and watching canoes weave in and out of the canals. Even then, she saw how the chinampas were deteriorating under pressure from urbanization and as some farmers began to drop the practice.

When her grandfather died in 2010 and her uncles didn’t want to carry on, Garduño took it upon herself to learn and conserve generations of farming. Her neighbors and relatives were skeptical at first, but she bought land for her own chinampa from a friend’s uncle in 2020 and now grows an assortment of produce, including sunflowers, eggplant, and the Mexican marigold “cempasuchil.”

Now the 32-year-old Garduño is one of the growing collective called Chinampa Refuge, started by the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and she and other famers encourage chinamperos to preserve their land. They follow ancient growing techniques but are trying new commercial approaches to compete with cheaper produce grown on massive farms elsewhere in Mexico. That includes a special tag — Etiqueta Chinampera — that tells buyers the produce came from a chinampa, and may tout things like water quality or the chinampa’s status as a biodiversity refuge.

“Change comes with educating the new generations,” said Garduño. “Talking about the origins and efforts to conserve and why it’s important to do it.”

Luis Zambrano, an ecologist from the National Autonomous University of Mexico who has worked in Xochimilco for decades, said the fields are largely self-sustaining. Nourished by the lake, they can produce three to five crops of vegetables a year without the need of chemicals or irrigation, he said.

Moreover, the ecosystem of Xochimilco benefits the sprawling city. Many different species of birds and fish thrive there, and the extensive canals help reduce the city’s overall temperature, he said.

But now, on weekends, it’s common to see more soccer players boating to islands in their jerseys and cleats than farmers tending their crops. The soccer fields stretch for miles along the canals after what Zambrano called “a massive increase” over the past two to three years.

In Xochimilco, many people are reluctant to talk about transforming their chinampas to soccer fields. One landowner who declined to be identified for fear of legal or community backlash said keeping the chinampas productive required more work and financial investment and yielded less revenue. Instead, she has established multiple businesses on her land — a soccer field for weekend games, a food stand and kayaking tours for foreign visitors.

“If you do well (farming) you could earn $5,000 to $10,000 (100,000 to 200,000 pesos) a year,” Garduño said. “In the tourist area you could have that within a couple of weekends.”

But converting the agricultural fields carries ecological impact. While traditional farming methods avoid insecticides and fertilizers, the soccer fields are another story.

“It doesn’t look that detrimental because there’s no construction,” said Zambrano. But “it’s just as damaging because the amount of chemicals that are used, the amount of pollution that is generated is very, very large.”

The chinampas are among the significant features that led Mexico City’s historic center and Xochimilco to be recognized as a world heritage site by UNESCO. But any protective measures are up to federal, state and local authorities. Carlos Vasquez, director of the Natural Protected Areas under Mexico City’s Environmental Department, said they are working on proposals to address the soccer fields.

“Many are counter to the conservation of the ecosystems,” he said. “We’re looking to regulate these activities.”

After a long day’s work out in the sun, Garduño and some neighboring farmers congregate under Garduño’s makeshift hut for a feast of chicken and tortillas. They catch up on their tasks and outline what’s left to do.

Juan Ávalos, 63, and his brother Salvador Gonzalez Ávalos, 55, have been working on chinampas all their lives. Their family has several plots in Xochimilco’s San Gregorio neighborhood. A year ago, after some convincing by Garduño, the brothers joined Chinampa Refuge to adopt a more holistic approach to their farming.

Salvador said the approach is a continuous reminder of his family’s legacy in maintaining the ancient practices — something they want to pass on to their grandchildren.

“That’s something we need to work on as grandparents,” he said. “That they integrate themselves with a taste for this earth.” 

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Canada detects its first presumptive human H5 bird flu case

OTTAWA, Ontario — Canada has detected its first presumptive case of H5 bird flu in a person, a teenager in the western province of British Columbia, health officials said Saturday.

The teenager likely caught the virus from a bird or animal and was receiving care at a children’s hospital, the province said in a statement.

The province said it was investigating the source of exposure and identifying the teenager’s contacts. The risk to the public remains low, Canada’s Health Minister Mark Holland said in posting on X.

“This is a rare event,” British Columbia Health Officer Bonnie Henry said in a statement. “We are conducting a thorough investigation to fully understand the source of exposure here in B.C.”

H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows, with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.

There has been no evidence of person-to-person spread so far. But if that were to happen, a pandemic could unfold, scientists have said.

Earlier in November, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked for farm workers who have been exposed to animals with bird flu to be tested for the virus even if they do not have symptoms.

Bird flu has infected nearly 450 dairy farms in 15 U.S. states since March, and the CDC has identified 46 human cases of bird flu since April.

In Canada, British Columbia has identified at least 22 infected poultry farms since October, and numerous wild birds tested positive, according to the province.

Canada has had no cases reported in dairy cattle and no evidence of bird flu in samples of milk.