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New York — A broadening rally in U.S. stocks is offering an encouraging signal to investors worried about concentration in technology shares, as markets await key jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts in September.

As the market’s fortunes keep rising and falling with big tech stocks such as Nvidia NVDA.O and Apple AAPL.O, investors are also putting money in less-loved value stocks and small caps, which are expected to benefit from lower interest rates. The Fed is expected to kick off a rate-cutting cycle at its monetary policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.

Many investors view the broadening trend, which picked up steam last month before faltering during an early August sell-off, as a healthy development in a market rally led by a cluster of giant tech names. Chipmaker Nvidia, which has benefited from bets on artificial intelligence, alone has accounted for roughly a quarter of the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain of 18.4%.

“No matter how you slice and dice it you have seen a pretty meaningful broadening out and I think that has legs,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment officer at Charles Schwab.

Value stocks are those of companies trading at a discount on metrics like book value or price-to-earnings and include sectors such as financials and industrials. Some investors believe rallies in these sectors and small caps could go further if the Fed cuts borrowing costs while the economy stays healthy.

The market’s rotation has recently accelerated, with 61% of stocks in the S&P 500 .SPXoutperforming the index in the past month, compared to 14% outperforming over the past year, Charles Schwab data showed.

Meanwhile, the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants — which includes Nvidia, Tesla TSLA.O and Microsoft MSFT.O — have underperformed the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 by 14 percentage points since the release of a weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report on July 11, according to an analysis by BofA Global Research.

Stocks have also held up after an Nvidia forecast failed to meet lofty investor expectations earlier this week, another sign that investors may be looking beyond tech. The equal weight S&P 500 index, a proxy for the average stock, hit a fresh record [last] week and is up around 10.5% year-to-date, narrowing its performance gap with the S&P 500.

“When market breadth is improving, the message is that an increasing number of stocks are rallying on expectations that economic conditions will support earnings growth and profitability,” analysts at Ned David Research wrote.

Value stocks that have performed well this year include General Electric GE.N and midstream energy company Targa Resources TRGP.N, which are up 70% and 68%, respectively. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 index, meanwhile, is up 8.5% from its lows of the month, though it has not breached its July peak.

The jobs report “tends to be one of the more market moving releases in general, and right now it’s going to get even more attention than normal.”

Investors are unlikely to turn their back on tech stocks, particularly if volatility gives them a chance to buy on the cheap, said Jason Alonzo, a portfolio manager with Harbor Capital.

Technology stocks are expected to post above-market earnings growth over every quarter through 2025, with third-quarter earnings coming in at 15.3% compared with a 7.5% gain for the S&P 500 as a whole, according to LSEG data.

“People will sometimes take a deep breath after a nice run and look at other opportunities, but technology is still the clearest driver of growth, particularly the AI theme which is innocent until proven guilty,” Alonzo said.
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Algiers — Algeria has been approved for membership in the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), the country’s finance ministry has  announced.

The decision was taken on Saturday and announced by NDB chief Dilma Roussef at a meeting in Cape Town, South Africa.

By joining “this important development institution, the financial arm of the BRICS group, Algeria is taking a major step in its process of integration into the global financial system,” the Algerian finance ministry said in a statement.

The bank of the BRICS group of nations — whose name derives from the initials of founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — is  aimed at offering an alternative to international financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF.

Algeria’s membership was secured thanks to “the strength of the country’s macroeconomic indicators” which have recorded “remarkable performances in recent years” and allowed the North African country to be classified as an “upper-tier emerging economy,” the finance ministry said.

Membership in the BRICS bank will offer Algeria — Africa’s leading exporter of natural gas — “new prospects to support and strengthen its economic growth in the medium and long term,” it added.

Created in 2015, the NDB’s main mission is to mobilize resources for projects in emerging markets and developing countries.

It has welcomed several country as new members, including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Saudi Arabia. 
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NEW YORK — While many costs have come down for small businesses, rents remain high and in some cases are still rising, forcing many owners into some uncomfortable decisions.

“Every time the rent goes up, we have to raise prices, to keep up with the cost,” said Adelita Valentine, owner of HairFreek Barbers in Los Angeles. “But with the cost of living, it makes it difficult on our customers.”

Other owners are choosing to be late on payments or seeking out new locations where the rent is lower. A few are pushing back against their landlord.

Although inflation is easing, it remains a top concern for small businesses. According to Bank of America internal data, rent payments per small business client rose 11% year-over-year in July. That’s more than twice the increase for renting and owning a residence, a metric known as shelter, according to the government’s monthly Consumer Price Index. That figure rose 5.1% in July.

And although the situation has improved since the height of the pandemic, a survey by business networking platform Alignable of more than 6,000 small business owners found that 41% could not pay their July rent on time and in full. And 52% said they’ve encountered rent spikes in the past six months.

The rent for Valentine’s barbershop rose to $4,000 in January from $3,600 in December, the fifth increase in the past eight years. She had to raise the price for her cuts from $35 to $40.

Two months ago, she moved locations for a cheaper $3,200 rent, but her space is smaller now and she sees fewer families coming in.

“A lot of people can’t afford to take a whole family to get haircuts,” after the price increase, she said.

Peter Yu has owned iPAC Automotive, an auto repair and detailing shop in Ontario, Canada, for six years. He said the rent on the shop typically went up about 4% a year. But when his landlord sold the property to a new owner, Yu’s rent jumped from about $1,800 (2,500 Canadian dollars) to about $2,700 (3,700 Canadian dollars) after three months.

He contemplated moving but decided that the cost of a move would be more than just paying the extra rent.

Yu tried to raise prices a month ago, but customers would come in and say “Oh, its too expensive,” and leave, he said. So, he had to drop the price increase in order to get those customers back.

“When we do try to raise our prices, consumers don’t have the money to pay for it. They’re looking for financing options,” he said. Yu’s services run the gamut from paint correction that costs a few hundred dollars to troubleshooting problematic EV battery and electric drive units for out-of-warranty Teslas that can cost up to $15,000.

So instead, he’s going to try to improve his marketing, close more sales, and find a way to offer more financing.

Standing firm against a landlord sometimes works. Janna Rodriguez has run her home-based The Innovative Daycare Corp. in Freeport, New York, since 2018. When she first signed her lease, she paid $3,500, plus costs including landscaping and maintenance. In 2020, the pandemic began, and her landlord raised her rent to $3,800 and also made her start paying half of the homeowner’s insurance. Last year, the landlord raised her rent to $4,100, plus the additional expenses.

Rodriguez raised her prices for the first time, by $10 per child per week, to help offset the rising rent.

This year she successfully pushed back when the landlord wanted to raise the rent yet again.

“I said to them, if you do that, then I’m going to find another property to move my business to, because at this point now you’re trying to bankrupt a business, right?” 

It’s worked – so far. But Rodriguez is worried about the future.

For others, negotiating a late payment is an option. Nicole Pomije owner of Minneapolis-based The Cookie Cups, which makes cookie kits for kids, has a 372-square-meter office space along with a warehouse where she develops her line of baking kits. Her rent rose 10% this year to $4,000 monthly. Then there are unanticipated bills, such as $1,500 for snow plowing.

“There’s so much stuff that pops up that you just you never expect,” she said. “And it’s always when you never expect it.”

Pomije hasn’t raised prices, but instead tried to mitigate the higher rent costs by buying materials in bulk – like ordering 5,000 boxes instead of 1,000 boxes for a 40% discount — and finding cost savings elsewhere.

Still, there have been several months over the past couple of years where she couldn’t pay rent on time. So, far the landlord has been amenable.

“If we have a conversation like hey, we don’t know if we’re going to make it for the first this month. It might be closer to the tenth,” she said.

Asked if she thinks costs might ease in the future, Pomije said she is focused on the present.

“It’s weird, but I’m trying not to think about the future too much and I’m trying to just do what we have to do, and get ready for a holiday season and just, like, get everything paid on time now,” she said. “And then we’ll kind of reevaluate everything in January.”
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FRANKFURT/TALLINN — Inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in three years in August, setting the stage for a further cut in the European Central Bank’s interest rates next month despite an Olympics-driven surge in the price of services.

The ECB has started winding down a two-year campaign against high inflation that followed the brisk reopening of the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Inflation in the 20 countries sharing the euro currency fell to 2.2% this month, the slowest pace since July 2021 and closing in on the ECB’s 2% target, according to a flash reading by the European Union statistics office, Eurostat.

While the fall was mostly driven by lower energy prices and may even reverse later this year, it was still likely to seal the deal on a second ECB rate cut on Sept 12 after a first move in June.

“The significant drop in headline inflation in August makes the September cut a foregone conclusion,” said Tomas Dvorak, a senior economist at Oxford Economics.

Even ECB board member and prominent policy ‘hawk’ Isabel Schnabel appeared to open the door to more easing on Friday, saying further gradual rate cuts might not derail the disinflation process as some policymakers had feared.

Still, the report showed price growth in the services sector – which is closely watched by policymakers because it better reflects domestic demand rather than external conditions – accelerated to 4.2% from an already high 4.0%.

This was the probable result of a boost from the Olympic Games in Paris, but also greater spending power by workers after some recent pay increases.

“This likely reflects a relatively tight job market, as the decrease in the unemployment rate in July shows,” said Gian Luigi Mandruzzato, senior economist at EFG Asset Management.

For now, markets see about six rate cuts before the end of next year, roughly one more cut than is baked into the ECB’s own economic projections, indicating that markets are more optimistic about the price outlook than the ECB.

This is partly because market economists see a bigger dip than the ECB’s own staff in inflation this autumn.

Policymakers say they will not be confident in the inflation outlook until wage growth slows, with Germany’s central bank especially vocal about this risk.

Still, with inflation now within a whisker of the ECB’s target, the euro zone’s central bankers were likely to broaden their debate from the single-minded focus on inflation to take into account signs of economic weakness.

Wage growth has slowed sharply and unemployment is already rising in around a quarter of the euro zone’s 20 countries. Survey data among firms and households suggest there is further labour market deterioration in store.

Lending has dwindled to a trickle since the ECB jacked up rates last year, causing investment to dry up and hampering sectors that rely on it, such as construction and manufacturing.

This has left euro zone economic growth barely humming along for over a year, with weakness in industrial powerhouse Germany only partly offset by strength in services-oriented countries such as Spain.

“We think the ECB is already behind the curve, fixated too much on current and narrow measures of inflation while not paying enough attention to weak growth, with potential long-term damaging impacts,” Oxford Economics’ Dvorak said.
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Washington — The U.S. economy expanded more than initially estimated in the second quarter this year, the Department of Commerce said Thursday, on stronger consumer spending than originally anticipated.

The world’s biggest economy grew at an annual rate of 3.0% in the April-to-June period, up from 2.8% according to an earlier estimate.

Analysts had expected no revision to the figure.

“The update primarily reflected an upward revision to consumer spending,” the Commerce Department said.

Unexpectedly robust consumption — even in the face of high interest rates — has helped to bolster the U.S. economy in recent times. But with households depleting pandemic-era savings, the anticipation was for consumption to pull back.

In the latest revision, the higher spending was partly offset by downward revisions in areas such as business investment, exports and government spending.

Imports, however, were revised higher.

The 3.0% figure for the second quarter this year was an uptick from 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

The Federal Reserve rapidly increased interest rates to tackle surging inflation in 2022. It is widely expected to make its first post-pandemic rate cut in September. This could provide a boost to the economy.
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Washington — Jobs in the U.S. clean energy industry in 2023 grew at more than double the rate of the country’s overall jobs, and unionization in clean energy surpassed for the first time the rate in the wider energy industry, the Energy Department said on Wednesday.

Employment in clean energy businesses – including wind, solar, nuclear and battery storage — rose by 142,000 jobs, or 4.2% last year, up from a rise of 3.9% in 2022, the U.S. Energy and Employment Report said. The rate was above the overall U.S. job growth rate of 2% in 2023.

Unionization rates in clean energy hit 12.4%, more than the 11% in the overall energy business, it said. That was driven by growth in construction and utility industries and after legislation passed in 2022 including the bipartisan CHIPS Act and President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, the department said.

Construction jobs in clean energy, driven by the legislation and private-sector investments, “is expected to continue for decades to build out the clean energy infrastructure that we need,” Betony Jones, the Energy Department’s head of energy jobs, told reporters in a call. While unionized members “might move from project to project, there is continuity of that work in order for workers to make a career in that industry,” she said.

Employment in the utility scale and rooftop solar industries grew 5.3% adding more than 18,000 jobs, it said. The solar installation industry in California, the country’s most populous state, says it has lost more than 17,000 jobs due to high interest rates and the state’s lowering of net meter rates that allow customers to be credited for excess power their rooftop panels generate.

New jobs in fossil fuels were mixed. The natural gas workforce grew by more than 77,000 or 13.3%, while jobs in petroleum fell more than 44,000 or 6%. Coal jobs fell nearly 8,500 or 5.3% as power generation continued to switch from coal to gas, wind and solar. White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi told reporters that the report showed the administration’s commitment to pursue both energy and climate security.

Energy remained a mostly male workforce with an average of 73% in 2023 compared with the national workforce average that was 53% male, the same numbers as in the previous year. Women accounted for about half the energy jobs added in 2022, but only 17% of the jobs added in 2023, the report said.

 
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New York — The rally in U.S. stocks faces an important test […]  with earnings from chipmaking giant Nvidia NVDA.O, whose blistering run has powered markets throughout 2024.  

The S&P 500 .SPX has pared a sharp drop it suffered after U.S. economic worries contributed to a sell-off at the beginning of the month and again stands near a fresh all-time high.  

Nvidia, whose chips are widely seen as the gold standard in artificial intelligence, has been at the forefront of that rally, jumping by more than 30% since its recent lows. The stock is up some 150% year-to-date, accounting for around a quarter of the S&P 500’s 17% year-to-date gain.  

The company’s Aug. 28 earnings report, coupled with guidance on whether it expects corporate investments in AI to continue, could be a key inflection point for market sentiment heading into what is historically a volatile time of the year. The S&P 500 has fallen in September by an average of 0.78% since World War Two, the worst performance of any month, according to CFRA data.  

“Nvidia is the zeitgeist stock today,” said Mike Smith, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, which holds the company’s shares in its portfolios. “You can think of their earnings four times a year as the Super Bowl.”  

Some investors are getting ready for fireworks. Traders are pricing in a swing of around 10.3% in Nvidia’s shares the day after the company reports earnings, according to data from options analytic firm ORATS. That’s larger than the expected move ahead of any Nvidia report over the last three years and well above the stock’s average post-earnings move of 8.1% over that same period, ORATS data showed.   

The results come at the end of an earnings season during which investors have taken a less forgiving view of big tech companies whose earnings failed to justify rich valuations or prodigious spending on AI. Examples include Microsoft MSFT.O, Tesla TSLA.O and Alphabet GOOGL.O, whose shares are all down since their July reports.  

Nvidia’s valuations have also climbed, as the stock soared about 750% since the start of 2023, making it the world’s third-most valuable company as of Thursday, while also drawing comparisons to the dotcom bubble of more than two decades ago. The company’s shares trade at about 37 times forward 12-month earnings estimates, compared with a 20-year average of 29 times, according to LSEG Datastream.  

Market sentiment could depend as much on Nvidia’s guidance as its results. Evidence that it sees robust demand will be a bullish sign that companies are continuing to invest rather than pull back in anticipation of an economic slowdown, said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager, equities, at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.  

Nvidia’s “connection to the largest companies in the U.S. stock market makes this a must-watch event,” he said. “The biggest piece that investors want to know is whether there is sustainability and what demand will look like in ’25 and ’26,” he said.  

The trajectory of monetary policy and the U.S. economy also looms large for investors. In a Friday morning speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered an explicit endorsement of interest rate cuts, saying further cooling in the job market would be unwelcome.  

Investors will be watching U.S. labor market data on Sept. 6 for evidence of whether last month’s unexpected downshift in employment carried over to August. Signs that employment is continuing to weaken could bring back the recession fears that rocked markets earlier this month.  

A tight presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, and Republican former President Donald Trump may also whip up market uncertainty in the weeks ahead.  

The August surge in stocks may make it difficult for markets to make much more headway in the near term even if Nvidia’s earnings impress Wall Street, said John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, which holds shares of the chipmaker.  

The S&P 500 trades at 21 times expected earnings, far above its long-term average of 15.7.  

“The stock market as a whole is still trading at stretched valuations so the bar remains high,” Belton said. 
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JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming — The Federal Reserve’s credibility in the eyes of financial markets helped in its battle against inflation over the past two years, but it had to be earned afresh with interest rate hikes that backed up policymakers’ verbal promises to restore price stability, according to new research presented at the Kansas City Fed’s annual research conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

A strong perception in financial markets that a central bank is committed to inflation control can make monetary policy more effective, prompting markets to shift financial conditions faster and lowering inflation with a less-serious hit to economic growth than would otherwise be the case.

While investors came to believe that the U.S. central bank under the leadership of Fed Chair Jerome Powell was serious about defending its 2% inflation target, that belief only formed over time and after the officials began raising the policy interest rate in March 2022 and accelerated the rate hikes over that summer, the researchers found.

“Forecasters and markets were highly uncertain about the monetary policy rule prior to ‘liftoff’ and learned about it from the Fed’s rate hikes,” economists Michael Bauer from the San Francisco Fed, Carolin Pflueger from the University of Chicago, and Adi Sunderam from the Harvard Business School, found in their research. “Substantial rate hikes were apparently necessary for perceptions to shift. … The public did not fully understand the Fed’s strategy and policy rule prior to liftoff.”

The research serves as a warning of sorts against central bankers putting too much weight on the power of “talk therapy” — or the ability to influence economic outcomes with words and promises alone.

Earning public trust

The Fed in recent years has been characterized by a surfeit of speeches and public comments by its officials, whether by the head of the central bank, other members of its presidentially appointed Board of Governors, or its 12 regional bank presidents, under the notion that more transparency is good for public accountability and makes policy more effective.

Fed officials in the recent inflation battle often noted that public belief in their commitment to the inflation target would help on its own to lower the pace of price increases, shorten the time it took for tighter monetary policy to have an impact, and lower inflation with less damage to the job market and other aspects of the “real” economy.

The researchers found, however, that while the Fed under Powell eventually earned the benefit of public trust, it also wasn’t a given.

The research used survey data to quantify how professional forecasters perceived the Fed would respond to higher inflation and found that even as prices began rising in 2021 the expected Fed response to inflation was near zero.

While that could have been attributed to several factors, including a belief that inflation would ease on its own, the researchers concluded it was because forecasters weren’t sure how the central bank would react.

After the first rate increase in March of 2022, however, perceptions began to shift, with forecasters eventually expecting the Fed to respond on an almost one-for-one basis to any rise in inflation.

The change in perceptions coincided with policymakers shifting from the initial quarter-percentage-point move to the first of four 75-basis-point hikes in June 2022, and with a stern speech by Powell at that year’s Jackson Hole conference that reaffirmed his intent to defend the inflation target despite the economic pain it might cause.

As market perceptions about the Fed’s sensitivity to inflation increased, “interest rates became significantly more sensitive to inflation data surprises,” the research found, adding that “the increase in the perceived inflation response likely aided the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy and improved the Fed’s inflation-unemployment tradeoff.”

For future policymakers, the researchers said, the conclusion is clear: Actions speak louder than words.

“Policy rate actions contribute to, and may even be necessary for, the effectiveness of communication, particularly when uncertainty about the monetary policy framework is high,” they found, suggesting the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections could be changed to make the central bank’s “reaction function” more explicit. “A timely policy rate response to inflation matters not only for influencing immediate financial conditions, but also for signaling that policymakers are serious.”
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TORONTO — A workers’ union Friday threatened a strike at one of Canada’s two major freight railroads, only hours after the company’s trains restarted following a potentially devastating stoppage. A government-ordered arbitration hearing wrapped up without a decision, and Canadian National trains were expected to keep moving at least through Monday morning.

CN and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. locked out their workers Thursday when negotiations over a new labor contract reached a deadline without an agreement. That resulted in a near total shutdown of freight rail in the country for more than a day, until Canadian National resumed its service Friday morning. Trains operated by CPKC remain parked, and its workers, who had already been on strike since Thursday, stayed on the picket line Friday.

The government forced the companies and the union, Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, into arbitration overseen by the Canada Industrial Relations Board — an order the union is challenging. Friday’s nine-hour hearing ended with no order from the board.

The union filed a 72-hour strike notice against CN on Friday morning shortly after it announced that it planned to challenge the arbitration order, union spokesperson Marc-Andre Gauthier said.

If the board orders the union back to work, “the TCRC will lawfully abide by the decision, but will undertake steps to challenge to the fullest extent,” the Teamsters said in a statement. “Unfortunately, this will not provide immediate relief, but the Union is prepared to appeal to federal court if necessary.”

Canadian National, which has about 6,500 workers involved in the dispute, said the impact of the strike notice will depend on the timing of the Canada Industrial Relations Board’s decision. “It is in the national interest of Canada that the CIRB rule quickly, before even more harm is caused,” the railroad said in a written statement. CPKC has about 3,000 engineers, conductors and dispatchers involved.

Perrin Beatty, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said the union’s latest actions “will prolong the damage to our economy and jeopardize the wellbeing and livelihoods of Canadians, including union and nonunion workers across multiple industries.”

Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon announced the decision to force the parties into binding arbitration Thursday afternoon, more than 16 hours after the lockout shut down the railroads, saying the economic risk was too great to allow them to continue. The government had declined to order arbitration two weeks ago. MacKinnon said he had hoped that negotiations between the companies and the union on a new contract would succeed.

“This is not about disobeying the minister’s order. It’s about exercising our right,” Teamsters Canada President Francois Laporte said Friday in announcing the strike. “We will exercise our right within the legal framework.”

Canadian National trains had begun rolling at 7 a.m. across Canada, said CN spokesperson Jonathan Abecassis. The development initially appeared to at least partially end a work stoppage that threatened to wreak havoc on the economies of Canada and the United States. Both countries, across all industries, rely on railroads to deliver their raw materials and finished products.

“While CN is focused on its recovery plan and powering the economy, Teamsters are focused on getting back to the picket line and holding the North American economy hostage to their demands,” Abecassis said following the union’s strike notice.

Getting even one of the railroads running again is a relief for businesses. In most past rail labor disputes, only one of the Canadian railroads stopped and the economy was able to weather that disruption.

The negotiations that began last year are hung up on issues around the way workers are scheduled and contract rules designed to prevent fatigue. The railroads had proposed shifting away from the current system that pays workers based on the number of miles they travel, to a system based on the hours they work. The railroads said the switch would make it easier to provide predictable schedules. But the union resisted because it feared the proposed changes would erode hard-fought protections against fatigue and jeopardize safety.

In Canada, another issue at CN is the railroad’s intention to expand a system that allows it to temporarily relocate workers to other parts of its network when it’s short on employees in a certain region.

Regarding wages, the railroads said they both offered raises in line with other recent deals in the industry for what are already well-paying jobs. Canadian National has said its engineers make about $150,000 and conductors earn roughly $121,000 for working 160 days a year, although some of their time off is spent stuck at hotels on the road between train trips while getting required rest. CPKC says its pay is comparable.

Nearly all of Canada’s freight handled by rail — worth more than $730 million a day and adding up to more than 375 million tons of freight last year — stopped Thursday along with rail shipments crossing the U.S. border.

About 30,000 commuters in Canada were also affected because their trains use CPKC’s lines. CPKC and CN’s trains continued operating in the U.S. and Mexico during the lockout.

Billions of dollars of goods move between Canada and the U.S. via rail each month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.

“There are a lot of goods and services shipped across borders,” Sean O’Brien, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, said at a rally in Calgary, Alberta, on Friday. “If this company chooses to continue its bad behavior, then it is going to have an impact. … They’ve got a lot of decisions they need to make. And they need to make the most important decision: Reward these workers with what they’ve earned and don’t try to diminish safety just so they need to feed their bottom lines.”
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Jakarta, Indonesia — Cellphones, electric pots and pans, and car washing machines were among goods worth $1.3 million destroyed Monday by the Indonesian Trade Ministry in West Java. Alcoholic drinks with an ethyl alcohol or ethanol content ranging from 5% to 20% were also destroyed.

The ministry demolished the goods as part of the government’s crackdown on illegal imports, a major issue that experts say stems from Indonesia’s unpreparedness for the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement signed 15 years ago.

Trade Minister Zulkifli Hasan said the goods did not comply with state regulations and lacked a surveyor’s report, goods registration number, or import approval, and exceeded import quotas or failed to meet Indonesian national standards.

This is the third operation conducted by the Trade Ministry, following operations at the Cikarang customs and excise storage area in West Java and at Jakarta’s Cengkareng Port.

On August 6, the Trade Ministry disclosed that $2.9 million of illegal imports were found at the Cikarang facility. The Trade Ministry confiscated 20,000 textile rolls. The National Police seized 1,883 bales of used clothing, while customs’ officers at Tanjung Priok port seized 3,044 bales of used clothing. In addition, hundreds of carpets, towels, cosmetics, footwear and more than 6,500 electronics were seized.

Since its establishment in July, the Anti-Illegal Imports Task Force has been investigating illegal import schemes, collecting data and seizing illegal goods.

The head of the Indonesian National Police’s criminal investigation unit, Wahyu Widada, said, “Illegal imports not only harm the country in terms of revenue loss, but also has an impact on small and medium scale entrepreneurs.”

Mohammad Faisal, executive director of the Center on Reform of Economics, links the current problem to Indonesia’s unpreparedness when it signed the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement 15 years ago.

“Indonesia’s domestic industries were not ready to compete with China’s competitive products in the local market. Indonesia had a huge domestic market and very low trade barriers then. It’s not just tariff barriers but also the non-tariff barriers were very limited. So that’s why it’s actually easy for foreign suppliers to enter the Indonesian market,” Faisal said.

According to recent data from the Ministry of Cooperatives and Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), approximately 50% of imported textiles and textile products are unregistered. That means the state loses out on $399 million from unpaid taxes and excise duties.

In 2022, China exported $3.95 billion of textiles to Indonesia but only $2.04 billion of Chinese textile imports were recorded. Overall, the financial loss is equal to the potential creation of 67,000 jobs and over $762 million in gross domestic product. Indonesia’s GDP in 2023, according to the World Bank, was $1.37 trillion.

Zulkifli said one of the major obstacles to fighting illegal imports is the existence of an underground economy. The Minister of Cooperatives and SMEs, Teten Masduki, said that almost 30% to 40% of goods sold in Indonesian markets are involved in the underground economy and therefore the state does not receive taxes on them.

As a result, Zulkifli added that Indonesia’s tax ratio is lower than other developed Asian nations such as South Korea, Japan and China.

“Imagine if we sent illegally imported goods to South Korea or China. Don’t expect that to happen, it’s impossible. That’s why these nations can become developed countries. If our “house” continues to get burglarized, how can we move forward?” he said.

Zulfkli announced in late June a plan to impose stiff tariffs of up to 200% on some products. The plan, which is still under review, initially was announced as an import duty on Chinese goods, but the minister said later the duties would apply to all countries.

Indonesia’s Shopping Center Retail and Tenant Association has detected shops suspected of selling illegally imported goods online across North Sumatra to East Java, and some have opened shops at Jakarta’s wholesale shopping centers.

Budihardjo Iduansjah, chairman of the association, said “These Chinese entrepreneurs store their goods at local warehouses and sell them online. But now many have started selling at shops including at International Trade Centers.”

During a visit to shops suspected of selling illegally imported goods from China, VOA spotted clothing with labels written in Mandarin that were sold for $1 each. A seller there admitted that he and many other sellers sold their goods online and shipped the clothes in bulk to resellers across the country.

Zulkifli claims that the investigations carried out by his task force have caused many foreign nationals suspected of dealing in illegal imports to leave.

He plans to work with universities to research the root causes of illegal imports. He is confident that the illegal imports crackdown will continue under President-elect Prabowo Subianto, who will be inaugurated in October.
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JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming — With the Federal Reserve considered certain to start cutting its benchmark interest rate next month, Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech Friday morning at an economic conference will be closely watched for any hints about how many additional rate cuts might be in the pipeline.

Powell is expected to say the Fed has become more confident that inflation is nearing its 2% target, more than two years after it hit a painful four-decade high. Yet the Fed chair may take an overall cautious approach in his remarks at an annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Economists note that forthcoming economic data, including a monthly jobs report on Sept. 6, will help determine the size of future Fed rate cuts — whether a typical quarter-point cut or a more aggressive half-point drop — and how fast they occur.

“We think he will seek to dampen expectations of [a half-point cut] as well as reiterate that the Fed is data-dependent and does not make decisions in advance,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a research note.

Powell’s speech comes as the central bank is moving toward achieving a much sought-after “soft landing,” in which its rate hikes — 11 of them in 2022 and 2023 — manage to curb inflation without causing a recession. Inflation was just 2.5% in July, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, having tumbled from a 7.1% peak two years ago.

The progress made on inflation has likely made many Fed officials more open to cutting rates several times this year now that elevated borrowing costs have largely succeeded in cooling the economy and taming inflation.

Still, a slowdown in hiring and an uptick in the unemployment rate last month heightened concern that the Fed could soon make a mistake in the other direction — by keeping rates too high for too long, throttling growth and plunging the economy into recession. Powell will likely refer to that balancing act in his speech Friday.

On Wednesday, minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting, held July 30-31, showed that the “vast majority” of policymakers said at the time that they would likely support a rate reduction at the next meeting in mid-September as long as inflation stayed low. Several of the Fed’s 19 officials even supported a rate cut at that meeting, the minutes showed.

Also Wednesday, the Labor Department revised its estimate of job growth for the 12 months that ended in March: It said that 818,000 fewer jobs were added during that year than it had earlier reported. The revisions, which were preliminary, will be finalized in February.

Hiring over that period was still solid, averaging 174,000 a month rather than 242,000, the government said. Yet because the figures show that hiring wasn’t as robust as was previously thought, a Fed rate cut next month is “a certainty,” Shepherdson wrote.

Economists generally agree that the Fed is getting closer to conquering high inflation, which brought hardship to millions of households beginning three years ago as the economy rebounded from the pandemic recession. Yet few economists think Powell or any other Fed official is prepared to declare “mission accomplished.”

After the government reported this month that hiring in July was much less than expected and that the jobless rate reached 4.3%, the highest in three years, stock prices plunged for two days on fears that the U.S. might fall into a recession. Some economists began speculating about a half-point Fed rate cut in September and perhaps another identical cut in November.

But healthier economic reports last week, including another decline in inflation and a robust gain in retail sales, partly dispelled those concerns. Wall Street traders now expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter-point in both September and November and by a half-point in December. Mortgage rates have already started to decline in anticipation of rate reductions.

A half-point Fed rate cut in September would become more likely if there were signs of a further slowdown in hiring, some officials have said.

Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, said in an interview Monday with The Associated Press that “evidence of accelerating weakness in labor markets may warrant a more rapid move, either in terms of the increments of movement or the speed at which we try to get back” to a level of rates that no longer restricts the economy.

“I’ve got more confidence that we are likely to get to our target for inflation,” he said. “And we’ve seen labor markets weaken considerably relative to where they were” last year. “We might need to shift our policy stance sooner than I would have thought before.” Several months earlier, Bostic had said he would likely support just one rate cut in the final three months of the year.
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Windhoek, Namibia — Namibia’s minister of agriculture has urged farmers in the Southern African country to look at alternative markets for its charcoal and beef products since the European Union, one of its largest trading partners, has implemented nontariff barriers that came into force in 2023.

A unilateral decision by the European Union to impose regulations on agricultural products from Namibia that come from areas that have been deforested has raised concerns regarding market access for products such as beef and charcoal.

These products will no longer have access to the European market unless they comply with the new rules that Namibian Minister of Agriculture Calle Schlettwein describes as stringent and prohibitive.

“When you want to conduct agriculture, you have to clear lands. We have [the] charcoal industry. We have a number of industries in the agricultural sector where we do have an impact on deforestation. And I said that farmers must be careful that if they do that, they must be in compliance with these regulations.”

The chairperson of the Namibia Biomass Industry Group, which represents over 150 members in the sector, Colin Lindeque, says the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will not negatively impact exports to the EU.

He said the EU is only asking for additional information. It wants geographic location tags that show that the charcoal they are exporting does not come from areas that have been deforested, but rather areas that are regarded as savannah, an argument with which Schlettwein disagrees.

Lindeque told VOA the regulations are fair, and the members of the Bio-mass Industry Group are compliant and meet the new EU requirements.  

“There was a consultant here recently from the EU looking at EUDR, and they specifically said Namibia’s bush encroachment is definitely not a forest in their opinion. But one of the challenges is our government hasn’t made the distinction, and that is actually the bigger point of interest, because we in the current Forest Act of 2001 do not even define what a forest is.”

Director of Forestry at Namibia’s Ministry of Environment, Johnson Ndokosho, says the ambiguities in the country’s law regarding what is considered a forest, woodlands and savannah are being dealt with in the new Forestry Act, which is being revised.

He cautioned that Namibia is at the mercy of the EU when it comes to whether Namibia’s beef and charcoal will still be able to enter their market.

“If they found that maybe this beef is coming out of an area where deforestation is occurring, then that may affect our exports.”

Last year, Namibia exported 270,000 tons of charcoal worth $72 billion (1.3 billon NAD) mainly to South Africa, which then exports it to other markets, including Europe. Europe is the top destination for Namibia’s beef, with the union consuming about 80 percent of the country’s total exports valued at roughly $23.5 million (420 million NAD).

Namibia is not the only country affected by the new EU regulations. Other countries include Brazil, Cameroon and Nigeria.

Products that are affected by the new EU regulations include cocoa, soy, palm oil and coffee.
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Seoul — Women’s accessories sold by some of the world’s most popular online shopping firms contained toxic substances sometimes hundreds of times above acceptable levels, authorities in Seoul said Wednesday.   

Chinese giants including Shein, Temu and AliExpress have skyrocketed in global popularity in recent years, offering a vast selection of trendy clothes and accessories at stunningly low prices that has helped them take on U.S. titan Amazon.   

The explosive growth has led to increased scrutiny of their business practices and safety standards, including in the European Union and South Korea, where Seoul officials have been conducting weekly inspections of items sold by online platforms.   

In the most recent inspection, 144 products from Shein, AliExpress and Temu were tested, and multiple products from all companies failed to meet legal standards.   

Shoes from Shein were found to contain significantly high levels of phthalates — chemicals used to make plastics more flexible — with one pair 229 times above the legal limit.   

“Phthalate-based plasticizers affect reproductive functions such as sperm count reduction, and can cause infertility and even premature birth,” an official from Seoul’s environmental health team told AFP.   

One such chemical “is classified as a human carcinogen by the International Cancer Institute, so special care should be taken to avoid long-term contact with the human body,” they added.   

Formaldehyde, a chemical commonly used in home building products, was detected in Shein’s caps at double the allowable threshold.   

Two bottles of nail polish from Shein were found to have dioxane — a possible human carcinogen that can cause liver poisoning — at levels more than 3.6 times the allowed limit and methanol concentrations 1.4 times above the acceptable level.    

Lead in sandals 

Shein told AFP that they “work closely with international third-party testing agencies… to regularly carry out risk-based sampling tests to ensure that products provided by suppliers meet Shein’s product safety standards.”   

“Our suppliers are required to comply with the controls and standards we have put in place as well as the product safety laws and regulations in the countries we operate in,” the company added.   

Seoul authorities found sandals from Temu contained lead in the insoles at levels more than 11 times the permissible limit.   

“Upon receiving notice from the Seoul city government, we immediately launched an internal investigation,” a spokesperson from Temu told AFP.   

“We have swiftly removed these product listings from our global marketplace and are enhancing our systems and guidance to merchants to ensure they comply with safety standards and local regulations.”   

Seoul officials asked for all the products to be removed from sale, according to a government statement.   

“Products that exceed the legal limit are products that directly contact the body, such as leather sandals and hats, so citizens should pay special attention,” said Kim Tae-hee, an official in the capital.   

“The Seoul Metropolitan Government will continue to conduct safety tests periodically and disclose the results.”   

The European Union in April added Shein to its list of digital firms that are big enough to come under stricter safety rules — including measures to protect customers from unsafe products, especially those that could be harmful to minors. 
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Bangkok — Ethnic and resistance forces in Myanmar have completely blocked a key trade route to China, halting cross-border commerce and further damaging Myanmar’s already struggling economy.

The Mandalay-Lashio-Muse Road is considered the most strategically important road in the country’s northern Shan State.

Formerly known as the “Burma Road,” locals commonly call it the “pearl necklace,” as it connects Myanmar’s second largest city of Mandalay with the Chinese border. The string of pearls of trade towns already captured by rebel forces include Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Lashio, Hsenwi, Kutkai and Muse near China’s southern border of Yunan province.

Lway Yay Oo, spokeswoman for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, or TNLA, told VOA that right now “there are battles all along the trade route.” That has increasingly been the case, she said, since the second phase of operation 1027 began several weeks ago.

The TNLA is part of the “Three Brotherhood Alliance,” along with the Arakan Army, AA and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA.

The first phase of the 1027 rebel offensive, which is named after the date it began, began on October 27, 2023.

The recent capture of several key towns along the trade route in a relatively short span of time has been widely seen as a potential turning point in the resistance as rebels look to cement control and further loosen the grip of junta forces the region.

The military government isn’t giving in easily, however, with intense battles along the route making trade nearly impossible.

“The TNLA and joint forces control the entire border trade route with the cities of Kutkai, Lashio, Kyaukme and Hsipaw, except for Muse,” Lway Yay Oo added. “Although we are prepared to keep businesses operating, we’ve had to stop border trade due to fierce fighting.”

Myanmar’s trade crisis deepens

The ongoing conflict and capture of key trading towns is already having an impact.

“Myanmar’s trade sector depends mostly on border trade,” said one Yangon-based businessman, who requested anonymity due to security reasons during a phone interview with VOA. “Air trade is very expensive now, and maritime trade takes a long time, so we must rely on border trade routes.”

With main trade routes closed, businesses are looking to find alternate routes.

“Trade flows are slower than they should be, and we are spending more on transportation, leading to further losses,” the man said. There is also an impact on consumers as the ripple effect of higher transportation costs, currency fluctuations and slower trade spreads to the general population.

“When these things happen, consumers also suffer,” he said, adding that right now “with demand so low, our revenue has dropped by about 50%.”

Earlier in June, the World Bank downgraded Myanmar’s economic growth forecast to just 1% for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, citing the intensifying conflict, labor shortages and a depreciating currency as key challenges. And that was just as the second phase of operation 1027 was beginning.

Impacting the junta

According to the Ministry of Commerce’s statistics, the border trade value between Myanmar and China totaled US$416.867 million in the first two months of the current financial year 2024-2025, which began on April 1.

It is a significant decline from the $640.43 million recorded during the same period last year, and a decrease of $223.564 million.

So far, for its part, Myanmar’s military rulers are playing down the impact the conflict is having.

“Despite the challenges posed by recent conflicts, we continue to facilitate trade with our neighboring countries, especially China,” a representative from Myanmar’s Ministry of Commerce said in June, according to state media. The ministry has not commented on the impact fighting has had on the economy since then.

Opposition forces disagree and say the success of the resistance has significantly weakened the junta’s ability to manage the economy, including trade.

“The revolutionary forces have grown stronger militarily and now control more territory,” said Min Zayar Oo, the NUG Deputy Minister of Planning, Finance, and Investment, in an interview with VOA.

Min Zayar Oo added that part of this is because of the junta’s mismanagement.

“Stability and clear policy are essential for business, but the military council has failed to provide this,” he said.

Commodity prices are soaring due to inflation and recent efforts by the junta, such as printing new currency notes, have only worsened the economic situation, he adds.

“Cross-border trade routes are disrupted, foreign currency is scarce, and the junta is struggling to provide basic services. The economic front, like the military front, is already collapsing,” he said.

The economic downturn is also impacting military funding, former army Major Naung Yoe told VOA in a telephone interview.

“No matter how much the junta increases the military spending budget, if the country doesn’t have foreign currency, the military spending will also be affected,” he said.

Border trade stalls, Kyat at record low

As fighting continues and trade stalls and the value of Myanmar’s currency the Kyat plummets, many business owners are hoping a resumption of stability will come soon.

“Every day that the fighting continues, our businesses suffer,” one medium-sized entrepreneur based in Yangon told VOA, who requested anonymity for security reasons. “We rely on cross-border trade, and with the current situation, it feels as though we have been cut off from the rest of the world.”

In late June, the Kyat hit a record low in foreign exchange markets, exacerbating the financial crisis faced by many in the country.

“We are struggling to keep our operations afloat,” another entrepreneur noted. “The depreciation of the kyat is making imports prohibitively expensive, and we cannot raise prices without losing customers.”

As the conflict rages on, the future of Myanmar’s economy remains uncertain, with many calling for an urgent resolution to restore stability and revive trade. “We need peace to rebuild our businesses and our country,” the Yangon based entrepreneur added. “Without it, we are all at risk.”
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Washington — Federal Reserve officials have said they’re increasingly confident that they’ve nearly tamed inflation. Now, it’s the health of the job market that’s starting to draw their concern.

With inflation cooling toward its 2% target, the pace of hiring slowing and the unemployment rate edging up, the Fed is poised to cut its benchmark interest rate next month from its 23-year high. How fast it may cut rates after that, though, will be determined mainly by whether employers keep hiring. A lower Fed benchmark rate would eventually lead to lower rates for auto loans, mortgages and other forms of consumer borrowing.

Chair Jerome Powell will likely provide some hints about how the Fed sees the economy and what its next steps may be in a high-profile speech Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the Fed’s annual conference of central bankers. It’s a platform that Powell and his predecessors have often used to signal changes in their thinking or approach.

Powell will likely indicate that the Fed has grown more confident that inflation is headed back to the 2% target, which it has long said would be necessary before rate cuts would begin.

Economists generally agree that the Fed is getting closer to conquering high inflation, which brought financial pain to millions of households beginning three years ago as the economy rebounded from the pandemic recession. Few economists, though, think Powell or any other Fed official is prepared to declare “mission accomplished.”

“I don’t think that the Fed has to fear inflation,” said Tom Porcelli, U.S. chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “At this point, it’s right that the Fed is now more focused on labor versus inflation. Their policy is calibrated for inflation that is much higher than this.”

Still, how fast the Fed cuts rates in the coming months will depend on what the economic data shows. After the government reported this month that hiring in July was much less than expected and that the jobless rate reached 4.3%, the highest in three years, stock prices plunged for two days on fears that the U.S. might fall into a recession. Some economists began speculating about a half-point Fed rate cut in September and perhaps another identical cut in November.

But healthier economic reports last week, including another decline in inflation and a robust gain in retail sales, have largely dispelled those concerns. Wall Street traders now expect three quarter-point Fed cuts in September, November and December, though in December it’s nearly a coin-toss between a quarter- and a half-point cut. Mortgage rates have already started to decline in anticipation of a rate reduction.

A half-point Fed rate cut in September would become more likely if there were signs of a further slowdown in hiring, some officials have said. The next jobs report will be issued on Sept. 6, after the Jackson Hole conference but before the Fed’s next meeting in mid-September.

Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, said in an interview Monday with The Associated Press that “evidence of accelerating weakness in labor markets may warrant a more rapid move, either in terms of the increments of movement or the speed at which we try to get back” to a level of rates that no longer restricts the economy.

Even if hiring stays solid, the Fed is set to cut rates this year given the steady progress that’s been made on inflation, economists say. Last week, the government said consumer prices rose just 2.9% in July from a year ago, the smallest such increase in more than three years.

Bostic noted that the economy has changed from just a couple of months ago, when he was suggesting that a rate cut might not be necessary until the final three months of the year.

“I’ve got more confidence that we are likely to get to our target for inflation,” he said. “And we’ve seen labor markets weaken considerably relative to where they were” last year. “We might need to shift our policy stance sooner than I would have thought before.”

Both Bostic and Austan Goolsbee, president of the Fed’s Chicago branch, say that with inflation falling, inflation-adjusted interest rates — which are what many businesses and investors pay most attention to — are rising even as inflation has slowed. When the Fed first set its key rate at its current 5.3%, inflation — excluding volatile energy and food costs — was 4.7%. Now, it’s just 3.2%.

“Our policies are getting tighter with every moment in that type of situation,” Bostic said. “We have to be concerned” that rates are so high they could cause an economic slowdown.

Still, Bostic said that for now, the job market and the economy appear mostly healthy, and he still expects a “soft landing,” whereby inflation falls back to the Fed’s 2% target without a recession occurring.

With the economy’s outlook unclear and the Fed focusing heavily on what future data shows, there may be only so much Powell will be able to say Friday about the central bank’s next steps.

Given the Fed’s focus on how the economic data comes in, “it will be difficult for Powell to pre-commit to a particular trajectory at Jackson Hole,” Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note.
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CHENNAI — A group of Indian port workers’ unions has called for a strike from Aug. 28 to demand immediate settlement of pay revisions and pension benefits, according to a note signed by its members. 

A strike by India’s port workers could exacerbate the existing congestion issues at Asian and European ports, leading to further delayed shipments, which have a global impact on trade and commerce. 

The country’s shipping ministry formed a bipartite wage negotiation committee in March 2021, and the workers submitted their demands six months later, ahead of the expiration of the previous agreement in December of that year, according to the note. 

Although the wage negotiation committee met seven times, it failed to meet the port workers’ demands, the note said. 

The workers’ group agreed to call for a strike after a meeting this month in Thoothukudi, a port city in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.  

The government and port management should consider demands such as pay scale revisions, payment of arrears and protection of exiting benefits to help avoid the strike, the workers’ group said in the note. 

India’s federal shipping ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. 

The annual cargo handling capacity of major Indian ports such as Chennai, Cochin and Mumbai totaled 1.62 billion metric tons, according to the shipping ministry. 

In the fiscal year to March 31, 2024, India exported goods worth $437 billion, with imports estimated at $677 billion. 

 
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