Climate finance to take center stage at COP29

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BERLIN, Germany — Close to 200 countries are scheduled to negotiate a new climate finance target for the Global South at the U.N. Climate Change Conference, or COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November.  

Dubbed the “Finance COP,” next month’s conference is expected to see focused discussions on a New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance, or NCQG. It defines a new target for monetary support from historic emitters – mostly countries in the Global North – to address climate needs in poorer countries.    

Surging climate needs  

In 2009, countries including the United States and the European Union agreed to contribute $100 billion collectively each year by 2020, but an OECD report showed that they struggled to meet that goal over the years. Worse still, much of the climate finance came in the form of loans, which critics say have piled more pressure on developing countries already drowning in debt.    

The new negotiations come after a spate of extreme weather conditions intensified by human-caused climate change. July, for instance, witnessed the three hottest days ever recorded. Scientists said in an article on BioScience that as fossil fuel emissions reached an all-time high, the Earth is on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius warming by 2100, far above the 1.5 degrees Celsius target established in the 2015 Paris Agreement.   

To combat the burgeoning crisis, developing countries will now need more than $100 billion a year, with estimates ranging up to $6 trillion by 2030. Even that does not sufficiently cover measures to adapt to already inevitable climate change, according to a 2021 U.N. report. 

Conference host Azerbaijan in July launched the Climate Finance Action Fund with an initial goal of raising $1 billion from fossil-fuel producing countries and companies. 

Nations are likely to reach a compromise at the lower end of a NCQG goal, according to Irene Monasterolo, professor of climate finance at the Utrecht University. 

“These results of the negotiations may not be able to address the current need for climate finance in low-income countries, which are massively affected already now by climate risk,” Monasterolo told VOA. “The focus so far has been mostly on mitigation [reducing emissions] projects and measures, while adaptation investments are lagging behind.”   

Adaptation finance   

While adaptation finance has gone up over the years, mitigation still accounts for the majority of current climate finance, the OECD report revealed. Monasterolo said the scale of adaptation finance ultimately depends on mitigation efforts.    

“We don’t see bold plans for mitigation that would be needed to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, including the Global North. We have instead some issues of policy reversal and some major economies and polluting countries like the U.S. stepping back and in Europe,” she added.    

“The science is clear. To limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, we need to drop production, extraction, use of fossil fuels and related carbon activities and focus on renewables, and low-carbon activities should go up. But that’s not happening. In the latest geopolitical crisis, we increased our dependency on fossil fuels.”  

The wars in the Middle East and Russia have put energy security at risk, according to the International Energy Agency. While a record high level of clean energy came online last year, emissions from the energy sector also broke records.    

Another reason for low adaptation finance, Monasterolo said, is the complexity of assessing climate risks. “We need to work on how to integrate forward-looking climate risk into investors and financial authorities’ models. Market-based approaches based on past data are a poor proxy of what could happen in the near future with ongoing climate change.”   

Loss and damage fund   

At COP28 in Dubai last year, countries agreed to set up a voluntary fund for historic emitters to pay for the damage caused by climate disasters in vulnerable developing countries. Western countries also called for large emitters like China to contribute. Negotiators are expected to continue the discussion at COP29.    

For now, it remains unclear whether the loss and damage fund will be included in the new NCQG, according to Karoliina Hurri, researcher at the Center on Climate Politics and Security at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. 

The fund “is defined as voluntary, so it’s not based on the same categorization of developed and developing countries. … Some developed countries argue that the loss and damage fund is not part of the mandate and should be negotiated separately from this.”  

Looming NDCs   

As countries are slated to declare new and more ambitious national green goals by February 2025, COP29 is expected to be a big push.   

“I am afraid we won’t see ambitious enough NDCs [national determined contributions], but I think this is really important at this COP, especially the discussion of how to ensure the [recommended] outcomes of last year’s Global Stocktake, and the discussion about transitioning away from fossil fuels,” Hurri explained. 

Hurri said many countries said they would lead by example to announce goals aligned with the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming goal. “But at the same time, nations can decide for themselves what the alignment means. This clarifies how difficult it is to reach the NDC.”   

At COP28, countries signed a historic deal to start transitioning away from polluting fossil fuels. Hurri said, however, it remains to be seen how the phases translate into actions. “Do we see, for example, schedules of roadmaps on how this process is planned on the national level?”   

Pivotal US election   

The U.S. election results could have a large impact on the implementation of potential negotiation results, including cooperation measures with the world’s biggest emitting nation, China, according to Hurri. 

“I have not seen very detailed climate policy arguments from either of the candidates, although we know that they have very different views on climate change. … We know what happened last time during President [Donald] Trump’s term that the U.S. decreased financial contribution for climate,” she said.    

COP29 will also mark the first cooperation talks between the new envoys from the United States and China — John Podesta and Liu Zhenmin. They had a working group meeting in Beijing in early September, in which they agreed to host a summit on methane and non-carbon greenhouse gases during the climate conference.   

“While the U.S. election might not influence the cooperation at this year’s COP, the election outcome can have an influence on the credibility of their cooperation in the long term on a high level,” Hurri said.   
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IMF raises concerns about effects of Sudan conflict on neighbors

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WASHINGTON — The war in Sudan is likely to cause heavy economic damage in neighboring countries, the IMF’s deputy director for Africa, Catherine Pattillo, told AFP.

“What is going on there for the people in Sudan is just so heart wrenching and devastating. For all of the neighboring countries, too,” she said in an interview in Washington ahead of the publication Friday of the International Monetary Fund’s regional outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.

“A number of these countries that are neighbors are also fragile countries with their own challenges,” she said. “And then to be confronted with the refugees, the security issues, the trade issues, is very challenging for their growth.”

The IMF’s report predicted that the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia and South Sudan could be particularly hard hit by the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

For South Sudan, the situation has become particularly worrying following the loss in February of one of its main sources of income after an oil export pipeline was damaged in Sudan.

The pipeline is crucial for transporting South Sudanese crude oil abroad, which is especially important given that oil accounts for around 90% of the landlocked country’s exports.

The war in Sudan has been raging since April 2023 between the army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, of his former deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who is also known as Hemedti.

The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives, according to the United Nations.

More than 10.7 million people have been displaced across the country, and a further 2.3 million have fled to neighboring countries.

The conflict has also exacerbated food insecurity; a famine was declared in July in the Zamzam camp for displaced people near the town of el-Facher, in Darfur.

“You could think of Sudan [and] also some of the security issues in the Sahelian countries, also affecting growth,” Pattillo said. “Those are the internal conflicts.”

At the same time, other “external conflicts” such as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are also affecting the cost of food, fertilizer and energy, she said.

The IMF noted that rising protectionism was also having a negative impact on growth in Africa at a time when trade tensions are translating into tariff hikes between the world’s three most powerful trading blocs: the United States, Europe and China.

The economic slowdown in developed countries and China still represents a major challenge for African countries, the IMF noted, predicting growth in sub-Saharan Africa of 4.2% next year.

This is slightly better than the 3.6% growth expected this year.
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Union’s rejection of Boeing offer threatens jobs at aerospace suppliers 

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Striking workers’ rejection of planemaker Boeing’s BA.N latest contract offer has created a fresh threat to operations at aerospace suppliers such as family-run Independent Forge.  

If the strike by more than 33,000 U.S. Boeing workers persists another month, the Orange County, California supplier might need to cut its operations from five to three days a week to save money and retain workers, president Andrew Flores said.  

While Independent laid off a few employees already, letting more go is not an appealing option, he said. The 22 workers who remain are critical for the company, especially when the strike eventually ends and demand for its aluminum aircraft parts rebounds.  

“They are the backbone of our shop,” Flores said this week. “Their knowledge, I can’t replace that.”  

Wednesday’s vote by 64% of Boeing’s West Coast factory workers against the company’s latest contract offer, further idling assembly for nearly all of the planemaker’s commercial jets, has created a fresh test for suppliers such as Independent, which opened in 1975.  

Boeing’s vast global network of suppliers that produce parts from sprawling modern factories or tiny garage workshops, was already stressed by the company’s quality-and-safety crisis, which began in January after a mid-air panel blow-out on a new 737 MAX.   

Demand for parts has dropped, hitting suppliers after they spent heavily to meet renewed demand for planes in the post-pandemic era.   

How small suppliers such as Independent navigate the strike, which began on Sept. 13, is expected to affect Boeing’s future ability to bring its plane production back online.   

More job cuts?   

Five Boeing suppliers interviewed by Reuters this week said continuation of the strike would cause them to furlough workers, freeze investment, or consider halting production.  

Boeing declined comment.  

Seattle-area supplier Pathfinder, which runs a project to attract young recruits to aerospace and trains them alongside its skilled workers, will likely need to lay off more employees, CEO Dave Trader said.  

Pathfinder, which let go one-quarter of its 54 workers last month, will also need to send more of its aerospace students back to their high schools, instead of training them in the company’s factories, Trader said.  

Suppliers on a regular call on Thursday with Boeing supply-chain executives said they expect the strike will continue for weeks, one participant told Reuters.  

About 60% of the 2.21 million Americans who work in the aerospace industry have jobs directly linked to the supply chain, according to the U.S. industry group Aerospace Industries Association.  

Those suppliers’ decisions to reduce staffing could create a vicious cycle, as they will put added strain on Boeing’s efforts to restore and eventually increase 737 MAX output above a regulator-imposed cap of 38 after its factories re-open, analysts say.  

“Once we get back, we have the task of restarting the factories and the supply chain, and it’s much harder to turn this on than it is to turn it off,” CEO Kelly Ortberg told an analyst call on Wednesday.  

“The longer it goes on, the more it could trickle back into the supply chain and cause delays there,” Southwest Airlines LUV.N Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson said of the strike on Thursday.   

Shares of Boeing suppliers fell on Thursday. Howmet HWM.N lost 2%. Honeywell HON.O and Spirit AeroSystems SPR.N fell 5% and 3%, respectively, following weak results.  

Spirit Aero, Boeing’s key supplier, which has already announced the furlough of 700 workers on the 767 and 777 widebody programs for 21 days, has warned it would implement layoffs should the strike continue past November.  

“It’s starting up the supply chain that is likely to be the biggest worry, especially if they have taken action to cut workers due to a lack of Boeing orders,” Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard said by email.  

A strained supply chain, Spirit Aero’s challenges and increased regulatory oversight from the Federal Aviation Administration over MAX production, means it could take up to a year from the strike’s end to get 737 output back to the 38-per-month rate, Stallard said. 
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Iran’s aviation woes compounded by latest EU sanctions

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Iranian photographer Tannaz was on her way to Tehran’s airport when European sanctions on flag carrier Iran Air forced her to return home, unable to make it to work in Paris.

It was within hours of the European Union announcing measures last week against prominent Iranian officials and entities, including airlines, accused of involvement in the transfer of missiles and drones for Russia to use in its war against Ukraine.

Tehran has consistently said such accusations were baseless, but with Western governments unconvinced, the latest sanctions went ahead, dealing a blow to Iran’s already embattled airline industry.

Unable to make it to her photoshoot in Paris as Iran Air had grounded all Europe-bound flights over the sanctions, Tannaz was left grappling with the effect on her business, uncertain how she may keep working abroad under the new restrictions.

“Considering the current situation and higher flight price options, I think I will lose many customers,” said the 37-year-old who gave her first name only, fearing repercussions.

With no other Iranian airline serving European destinations, any alternative to the canceled Iran Air route would likely cost her much more and include a layover, increasing travel time.

Many Western and other international airlines had already suspended their Iran services, citing heightened tensions and the risk of regional conflict since the Gaza war broke out more than a year ago.

 Host of challenges

Despite having largely avoided being drawn into the conflict, Iran backs Palestinian group Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and others, and whose October 7, 2023 attack on Israel sparked the war, and has launched two direct attacks on Israel.

The latest missile attack earlier this month, in response to the killing of Tehran-aligned militant leaders and a Revolutionary Guards general, prompted vows of retaliation from Israel, again heightening fears of a broader conflagration that could disrupt air traffic.

Iran Air, far cheaper than its foreign competition, was “the only airline that flew to Europe in our country”, said Maghsoud Asadi Samani of the national airline association.

“With the new European Union sanctions against Iran Air, no Iranian aircraft will fly to Europe,” news agency ILNA quoted Samani as saying.

Earlier Western sanctions on Iran, including those reimposed after the United States withdrew in 2018 from a landmark nuclear deal, have taken a toll, too.

They contributed to soaring inflation, slashing Iranians’ purchasing power, but also heavily restricted the acquisition of aircraft and spare parts, and limited access to maintenance services.

“A significant number of planes in Iran have accordingly been grounded” for years, said economist Danial Rahmat.

Aging aircraft fleets have worsened poor safety standards, part of a host of challenges Iran’s aviation sector has long grappled with.

Economist Said Leylaz said that while sanctions have had a serious impact, airlines’ woes were rooted in mismanagement and corruption.

Going ‘where we’re not sanctioned’

But Iranians have only a few alternatives.

Rahmat said that now, they may have to primarily rely on flights via neighboring countries to reach Europe and other parts of the world.

Not only would it “impose higher costs and longer travel hours on Iranian passengers, but it would also provide an opportunity for airlines from these countries to acquire a larger market share” at the expense of Iranian firms, said Rahmat.

Iran Air still flies to several regional destinations as well as some in Asia. Another company, Mahan Air, goes to Moscow and Beijing several times a week.

Shortly after the latest EU sanctions were announced on October 14, Iran Air set up a daily route to Istanbul “to facilitate travel to Europe and reduce travelers’ worries,” news agency ISNA reported.

Leylaz said that the sanctions would likely boost Iran’s ties with non-Western allies like China.

The demand for flights to east Asia “and outside the European Union… to places where we are not sanctioned is very high,” he added.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has made easing Iran’s economic isolation a key objective, but indirect talks with the United States that could have helped have been suspended over the regional conflict, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

For Tannaz, the photographer, the ability to go abroad is not just a work issue but also a reflection of the state of the country.

“I just wish we could live a normal life,” she said.
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Four astronauts return to Earth after being delayed by Boeing’s capsule trouble, Hurricane Milton

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Four astronauts returned to Earth on Friday after a nearly eight-month space station stay extended by Boeing’s capsule trouble and Hurricane Milton.

A SpaceX capsule carrying the crew parachuted before dawn into the Gulf of Mexico just off the Florida coast after undocking from the International Space Station mid-week.

The three Americans and one Russian should have been back two months ago. But their homecoming was stalled by problems with Boeing’s new Starliner astronaut capsule, which came back empty in September because of safety concerns. Then Hurricane Milton interfered, followed by another two weeks of high wind and rough seas.

SpaceX launched the four — NASA’s Matthew Dominick, Michael Barratt and Jeanette Epps, and Russia’s Alexander Grebenkin — in March. Barratt, the only space veteran going into the mission, acknowledged the support teams back home that had “to replan, retool and kind of redo everything right along with us … and helped us to roll with all those punches.”

Their replacements are the two Starliner test pilots Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, whose own mission went from eight days to eight months, and two astronauts launched by SpaceX four weeks ago. Those four will remain up there until February.

The space station is now back to its normal crew size of seven — four Americans and three Russians — after months of overflow.
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How Afghan, Pakistani clerics battle polio vaccine misinformation

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Maulana Tayyab Qureshi, the top cleric in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, has seen up close the devastating effects of polio.

Two of his own kin were once paralyzed, victims of a scourge that has been vanquished worldwide yet refuses to go away from Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan.

“Had their parents not neglected [to have their children vaccinated], their children wouldn’t be disabled today,” Qureshi said of his relatives.

As the chief khateeb, or Friday prayer leader, of the northwestern province, Qureshi preaches this message at every opportunity — Friday sermons at his 17th century Mahabat Khan Mosque in Peshawar, Eid prayers when upward of 40,000 people congregate, meetings with village elders.

“I’m very clear cut: I tell them, it’s free. It doesn’t cost you anything. Why don’t you take it seriously?” Qureshi said in an interview with VOA.

Qureshi is not the only Pakistani cleric advocating vaccination. Several renowned scholars have issued decrees in its support, with a notable shift in attitudes. Vaccine hesitancy, an intractable obstacle to eradicating polio, has waned, he said.

A once infamous bastion of vaccine resistance outside Peshawar has now embraced immunization.

“The fatwas have had a great impact,” Qureshi said.

Yet, as Pakistan and Afghanistan seek to eradicate polio, misinformation remains a key hurdle. While immunization rates are generally high in both countries, pockets of resistance persist along the border, jeopardizing eradication efforts.

To counter vaccine misinformation, public health officials increasingly have turned to influential clerics like Qureshi. As the trusted voices within their communities, these religious leaders play a crucial role in dispelling harmful myths and misconceptions about vaccines, experts say.

“The best way to fight through this is empowering trusted voices in communities to push back on it and provide real information,” said Kai Ruggeri, a Columbia University health policy professor who has written about vaccine disinformation.

The stakes are high. Afghanistan and Pakistan are the only countries where polio remains endemic. And as World Polio Day arrives this year, there are renewed concerns over their ability to eliminate the disease.

The neighboring countries were once on the brink of going polio-free. But persistent insecurity coupled with cross-border movements has fueled a resurgence.

Pakistan has recorded 40 cases and Afghanistan at least 20, this year. This marks a significant increase from the six cases each reported last year.

A setback came last month when more than 1 million Pakistani children missed vaccinations, and Afghanistan’s Taliban briefly suspended immunization campaigns.

Oliver Rosenbauer, a spokesman for WHO’s polio eradication program in Geneva, noted that misinformation is not the only obstacle to eliminating polio; a lack of infrastructure, insecurity and population density also contribute.

“The important point is the polio virus doesn’t care why a child is not vaccinated,” Rosenbauer said in an interview. “It’s very, very good at finding that unvaccinated child.”

Polio, a crippling disease that can lead to paralysis and death, has long been eradicated globally thanks to universal immunization efforts. For most people around the world, polio is a distant memory or even a relic of history.

But in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the disease remains a stark reality despite significant progress in recent decades. Its scars are visible to those who look, Rosenbauer said.

“It’s a disease that parents still see,” he said. “If you walk around Karachi or Kabul, you’ll still see people with polio on the streets.”

This “respect for the disease” explains why vaccine hesitancy remains around 1.5% in Afghanistan and Pakistan, significantly lower than many Western countries.

Yet in densely populated areas, such as the border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan, lingering resistance can prevent efforts to eradicate the virus.

Leading the charge against the vaccine, militants on both sides of the border have waged violent attacks on polio workers and their escorts. Their claim that the vaccine program violates Islamic law and is used for surveillance has fueled resistance.

Hundreds have been killed in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In January, at least five policemen were killed and more than a dozen injured in a major attack on polio teams and security personnel in northwestern Pakistan.

According to the Emergency Operations Center in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, militants have carried out 21 attacks against polio teams and security escorts in Pakistan this year.

Mainstream clerics have pushed back.

In 2019, prominent Islamic scholars from Afghanistan and Pakistan declared the polio vaccine safe and Sharia-compliant. They stressed the “moral duty” of parents to have their children vaccinated.

In 2022, the al-Azhar University, the Sunni Muslim world’s most prestigious institution of religious education, warned against decrees banning the polio vaccine in Pakistan.

Last month, nearly 200 renowned religious scholars in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa declared support for polio vaccination.

Qureshi, the chief khateeb of KP, was among them.

The scholars “took a strong stand not only regarding the polio vaccine but all health measures by the ministry of health,” Qureshi said.

Across the border, Taliban health officials are waging their own campaign against vaccine misinformation even as attacks on health workers, often claimed by ISIS, have persisted.

Ehsanul Haq Hanafi, a cleric and senior official in the health ministry, understands the clergy’s influence in Afghan society.

“People listen to the ulema and accept what they say,” Hanafi said in an interview with VOA.

Among the myriad misconceptions about the vaccine, he said, some Afghans believe it corrupts morals or causes sterility. Others think it can accelerate puberty, he said.

“This is unscientific and baseless disinformation,” he said.

To combat this, Hanafi travels around the country to meet with locals and mullahs to convince the skeptics. While some clerics remain opposed, most accept the vaccine once its benefits are explained, he said.

“We can’t convince 100% of the people, but 80% agree with us and have their children vaccinated,” Hanafi said.

VOA’s Ihsan M. Khan contributed to this article.
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US military, intelligence agencies ordered to embrace AI

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washington — The Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies have new marching orders — to more quickly embrace and deploy artificial intelligence as a matter of national security.

U.S. President Joe Biden signed the directive, part of a new national security memorandum, on Thursday. The goal is to make sure the United States remains a leader in AI technology while also aiming to prevent the country from falling victim to AI tools wielded by adversaries like China.

The memo, which calls AI “an era-defining technology,” also lays out guidelines that the White House says are designed to prevent the use of AI to harm civil liberties or human rights.

The new rules will “ensure that our national security agencies are adopting these technologies in ways that align with our values,” a senior administration official told reporters, speaking about the memo on the condition of anonymity before its official release.

The official added that a failure to more quickly adopt AI “could put us at risk of a strategic surprise by our rivals.”

“Because countries like China recognize similar opportunities to modernize and revolutionize their own military and intelligence capabilities using artificial intelligence, it’s particularly imperative that we accelerate our national security community’s adoption and use of cutting-edge AI,” the official said.

But some civil liberties advocates are raising concerns that the new guidelines lack sufficient safeguards.

“Despite acknowledging the considerable risks of AI, this policy does not go nearly far enough to protect us from dangerous and unaccountable AI systems,” according to a statement from the American Civil Liberties Union’s Patrick Toomey.

“National security agencies must not be left to police themselves as they increasingly subject people in the United States to powerful new technologies,” said Toomey, who serves as deputy director of ACLU’s National Security Project.

The new guidelines build on an executive order issued last year that directed all U.S. government agencies to craft policies for how they intend to use AI.

They also seek to address issues that could hamper Washington’s ability to more quickly incorporate AI into national security systems.

Provisions outlined in the memo call for a range of actions to protect the supply chains that produce advanced computer chips critical for AI systems. It also calls for additional actions to combat economic espionage that would allow U.S. adversaries or non-U.S. companies from stealing critical innovations.

“We have to get this right, because there is probably no other technology that will be more critical to our national security in the years ahead,” said White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, addressing an audience at the National Defense University in Washington on Thursday.

“The stakes are high,” he said. “If we don’t act more intentionally to seize our advantages, if we don’t deploy AI more quickly and more comprehensively to strengthen our national security, we risk squandering our hard-earned lead.

“We could have the best team but lose because we didn’t put it on the field,” he added.

Although the memo prioritizes the implementation of AI technologies to safeguard U.S. interests, it also directs officials to work with allies and others to create a stable framework for use of AI technologies across the globe.

“A big part of the national security memorandum is actually setting out some basic principles,” Sullivan said, citing ongoing talks with the G-7 and AI-related resolutions at the United Nations.

“We need to ensure that people around the world are able to seize the benefits and mitigate the risks,” he said.
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AI decodes oinks and grunts to keep pigs happy in Danish study

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VIPPEROD, Denmark — European scientists have developed an artificial intelligence algorithm capable of interpreting pig sounds, aiming to create a tool that can help farmers improve animal welfare.

The algorithm could potentially alert farmers to negative emotions in pigs, thereby improving their well-being, according to Elodie Mandel-Briefer, a behavioral biologist at University of Copenhagen who is co-leading the study.

The scientists, from universities in Denmark, Germany, Switzerland, France, Norway and the Czech Republic, used thousands of recorded pig sounds in different scenarios, including play, isolation and competition for food, to find that grunts, oinks, and squeals reveal positive or negative emotions.

While many farmers already have a good understanding of the well-being of their animals by watching them in the pig pen, existing tools mostly measure their physical condition, said Mandel-Briefer.

“Emotions of animals are central to their welfare, but we don’t measure it much on farms,” she said.

The algorithm demonstrated that pigs kept in outdoor, free-range or organic farms with the ability to roam and dig in the dirt produced fewer stress calls than conventionally raised pigs. The researchers believe that this method, once fully developed, could also be used to label farms, helping consumers make informed choices.

“Once we have the tool working, farmers can have an app on their phone that can translate what their pigs are saying in terms of emotions,” Mandel-Briefer said.

Short grunts typically indicate positive emotions, while long grunts often signal discomfort, such as when pigs push each other by the trough. High-frequency sounds like screams or squeals usually mean the pigs are stressed, for instance, when they are in pain, fight, or are separated from each other.

The scientists used these findings to create an algorithm that employs AI.

“Artificial intelligence really helps us to both process the huge amount of sounds that we get, but also to classify them automatically,” Mandel-Briefer said.
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China space plan highlights commitment to space exploration, analysts say

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Chinese officials recently released a 25-year space exploration plan that details five major scientific themes and 17 priority areas for scientific breakthroughs with one goal: to make China a world leader in space by 2050 and a key competitor with the U.S. in space, for decades to come.

Last week, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the China National Space Administration, and the China Manned Space Agency jointly released a space exploration plan for 2024 through 2050.

It includes searching for extraterrestrial life, exploring Mars, Venus, and Jupiter, sending space crews to the moon and building an international lunar research station by 2025.

Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says the plan highlights China’s long-term commitment and answers some lingering questions as well.

“I think a lot of experts have wondered if China would continue to invest in space, particularly in science and exploration, given a lot of economic uncertainties in China … but this is a sign that they’re committed,” Swope said.

The plan reinforces a “commitment to really look at space science and exploration in the long term and not just short term,” he added.

The plan outlines Beijing’s goal to send astronauts to the moon by 2030, obtain and retrieve the first samples from Mars and successfully complete a mission to the Jupiter system in the next few years. It also outlines three phases of development, each with specific goals in terms of space exploration and key scientific discoveries.

The extensive plan is not only a statement that Beijing can compete with the U.S. in high-tech industries, it is also a way of boosting national pride, analysts say. 

“Space in particular has a huge public awareness, public pride,” says Nicholas Eftimiades, a retired senior intelligence officer and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. “It emboldens the Chinese people, gives them a strong sense of nationalism and superiority, and that’s what the main focus of the Bejing government is.”

 

Swope agrees.

“I think it’s [China’s long-term space plan] a manifestation of China’s interest and desire from a national prestige and honor standpoint to really show that it’s a player on the international stage up there with the United States,” he said.

Antonia Hmaidi, a senior analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told VOA in an email response that, “China’s space focus goes back to the 1960,” and that “China has also been very successful at meeting its own goals and timelines.”

In recent years China has carried out several successful space science missions including Chang’e-4, which marked the world’s first soft landing and roving on the far side of the moon, Change’e-5, a mission that returned a sample from the moon back to Beijing for the first time, and Tianwen-1, a space mission that resulted in Chinese spacecraft leaving imprints on Mars. 

 

In addition, to these space missions, Bejing has implemented several programs aimed at increasing scientific discovery relating to space, particularly through the launch of several space satellites. 

Since 2011, China has developed and launched scientific satellites including Dark Matter Particle Explorer, Quantum Experiments at Space Scale, Advanced Space-based Solar Observatory, and the Einstein Probe.

While China continues to make progress with space exploration and scientific discovery, according to Swope, there is still a way to go before it catches up to the United States.

“China is undeniably the number 2 space power in the world today, behind the United States,” he said. “The United States is still by far the most important in a lot of measures and metrics, including in science and exploration.”

Eftimiades said one key reason the United States has maintained its lead in the space race is the success of Washington’s private, commercial aerospace companies.

 

“The U.S. private industry has got the jump on China,” Eftimiades said. “There’s no type of industrial control, industrial plan. In fact, Congress and administration shy away from that completely.”

Unlike the United States, large space entities in China are often state-owned, such as the China Aerospace Cooperation, Eftimiades said.

He adds that one advantage of China’s space entities being state-owned is the ability for the Chinese government to “direct their industries toward specific objectives.” At the same time, having bureaucracy involved with state-owned enterprises leads to less “cutting-edge technology.”

This year, China has focused on growing its space presence relative to the U.S. by conducting more orbital launches. 

Beijing planned to conduct 100 orbital launches this year, according to the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, which was to conduct 70 of them. However, as of October 15, China had completed 48 orbital launches.

Last week, SpaceX announced it had launched its 100th rocket of the year and had another liftoff just hours later. The private company is aiming for 148 launches this year.

Earlier this year the U.S. Department of Defense implemented its first Commercial Space Integration Strategy, which outlined the department’s efforts to take technologies produced in the private sector and apply their uses for U.S. national security purposes.

In a statement released relating to the U.S. strategic plan, the Department of Defense explained its strategy to work closely with private and commercial sector space companies that are known to be innovative and have scalable production.

According to the statement, officials say “the strategy is based on the premise that the commercial space sector’s innovative capabilities, scalable production and rapid technology refresh rates provide pathways to enhance the resilience of DOD space capabilities and strengthen deterrence.”

Many space technologies have military applications, Swope said.

 

“A lot of things that are done in space have a dual use, so [space technologies] may be primarily used for scientific purposes, but also could be used to design and build and test some type of weapons technology,” Swope said.

Hmaidi says China’s newest space plan stands out for what it doesn’t have.

“The most interesting and striking part about China’s newest space plan to me was the narrow focus on basic science over military goals,” she told VOA in an email. “However, we know from open-source research that China is also very active in military space development.”

“This plan contains only one part of China’s space planning, namely the part that is unlikely to have direct military utility, while not mentioning other missions with direct military utility like its low-earth orbit internet program,” Hmaidi explained.
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Chinese official urges Apple to continue ‘deepening’ presence in China

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A top Chinese official has urged tech giant Apple to deepen its presence and investment in innovation in the world’s second largest economy at a time when supply chains and companies are shifting production and operations away from China.

As U.S.-China geopolitical tensions simmer and tech competition between Beijing and Western countries intensifies, foreign investment in China shrunk in 2023 to its lowest level in three decades, according to government statistics.

The United States has banned the export of advanced technology to China and Beijing’s crackdown on spying in the name of national security concerns has spooked investors.

On Wednesday, Jin Zhuanglong – China’s Minister for Industry and Information Technology – told Apple CEO Tim Cook he hoped that, “Apple will continue to deepen its presence in the Chinese market,” urging Cook to “increase investment in innovation, grow alongside Chinese firms, and share in the dividends of high-quality investment,” according to a ministry statement.

At the meeting Jin also discussed “Apple’s development in China, network data security management, (and) cloud services,” according to the statement.

China has the world’s largest market for smartphones, and Apple is a leading competitor. However, increasingly the iPhone producer has lost market share in the country due to an increasing number of local rivals in the smartphone sector.

In the second quarter of this year, AFP reports that Apple ranked sixth among smartphone vendors in China, holding a 16% market share, marking a drop of three positions compared to its ranking during the same period last year, according to analysis firm Canalys.

Jin also repeated a frequent pledge from officials in Beijing that China would strive to provide a “better environment” for global investors and “continue to expand high-level opening up.

Cook’s trip to China was his second of the year. His posts on the X-like Chinese social media platform Weibo showed he visited an Apple store in downtown Beijing, visited an organic farm, and toured ancient neighborhoods with prominent artists such as local photographer Chen Man.

Cook added that he met with students from China’s Agricultural University and Zhejiang University to receive feedback on how iPhones and iPads can help farmers adopt more sustainable practices. 

Some information in this report came from Reuters and AFP.
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Snakebite victims in Southern Africa struggle to get antivenom

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Snakebites are classified as a neglected tropical disease by the World Health Organization. In South Africa and other countries in the region, there are numerous barriers to getting the antivenom necessary to save limbs and lives. But scientists are working to make antivenom cheaper, safer and easier to produce. Kate Bartlett reports from Johannesburg. Camera: Zaheer Cassim
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Polio strikes as misinformation fuels vaccine refusal in Pakistan and Afghanistan

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The naturally occurring form of polio remains active in only two countries in the world: Pakistan and Afghanistan. Over 50 cases of so-called wild polio have been confirmed in the region this year despite continuing efforts to eradicate the disease. This report comes from both sides of the border, narrated by Bezhan Hamdard.
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Boeing reports $6 billion quarterly loss ahead of vote by union workers who have crippled production 

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EVERETT, Wash. — Boeing reported a loss of more than $6 billion in the third quarter and immediately turned its attention to union workers who will vote Wednesday whether to accept a company contract offer or continue their crippling strike, which has dragged on for nearly six weeks.  

New CEO Kelly Ortberg laid out his plan to turn Boeing around after years of heavy losses and damage to its reputation.  

In remarks he planned to deliver later Wednesday to investors, Ortberg said Boeing needs “a fundamental culture change in the company.” To accomplish that, he said, company leaders need to spend more time on factory floors to know what is going on and “prevent the festering of issues and work better together to identify, fix, and understand root cause.”  

Ortberg repeated that he wants to “reset” management’s relationship with labor “so we don’t become so disconnected in the future.” He expressed hope that machinists will vote to approve the company’s latest contract offer and end their strike.  

“It will take time to return Boeing to its former legacy, but with the right focus and culture, we can be an iconic company and aerospace leader once again,” he said.  

The strike is an early test for Ortberg, a Boeing outsider who became CEO in August.  

Ortberg has already announced large-scale layoffs and a plan to raise enough cash to avoid a bankruptcy filing. He needs to convince federal regulators that Boeing is fixing its safety culture and is ready to boost production of the 737 Max — a crucial step to bring in much-needed cash.  

Boeing can’t produce any new 737s, however, until it ends the strike by 33,000 machinists that has shut down assembly plants in the Seattle area.  

Ortberg has “got a lot on his plate, but he probably is laser-focused on getting this negotiation completed. That’s the closest alligator to the boat,” said Tony Bancroft, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, a Boeing investor.  

Boeing hasn’t had a profitable year since 2018, and the situation is about to get worse before it gets better.  

Boeing said Wednesday that it lost $6.17 billion in the period ended Sept. 30, with an adjusted loss of $10.44 per share. Analysts polled by Zacks Investment Research were calling for a loss of $10.34 per share.  

Revenue totaled $17.84 billion, matching Wall Street estimates.  

Shares were flat before the opening bell.  

Investors will be looking for Ortberg to project calm, determination and urgency as he presides over an earnings call for the first time since he ran Rockwell Collins, a maker of avionics and flight controls for airline and military planes, in the last decade.  

The biggest news of the day, however, is likely to come Wednesday evening, when the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers reveals whether striking workers are ready to go back to their jobs.  

They will vote at union halls in the Seattle area and elsewhere on a Boeing offer that includes pay raises of 35% over four years, $7,000 ratification bonuses, and the retention of performance bonuses that Boeing wanted to eliminate.  

Boeing has held firm in resisting a union demand to restore the traditional pension plan that was frozen a decade ago. However, older workers would get a slight increase in their monthly pension payouts.  

At a picket line outside Boeing’s factory in Everett, Washington, some machinists encouraged colleagues to vote no.  

“The pension should have been the top priority. We all said that was our top priority, along with wage,” said Larry Best, a customer-quality coordinator with 38 years at Boeing. “Now is the prime opportunity in a prime time to get our pension back, and we all need to stay out and dig our heels in.”  

Best also thinks the pay increase should be 40% over three years to offset a long stretch of stagnant wages, now combined with high inflation.  

“You can see we got a great turnout today. I’m pretty sure that they don’t like the contract because that’s why I’m here,” said another picketer, Bartley Stokes Sr., who started working at Boeing in 1978. “We’re out here in force, and we’re going to show our solidarity and stick with our union brothers and sisters and vote this thing down because they can do better.”
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E. coli outbreak tied to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder kills 1, sickens dozens in US

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One person died and dozens fell ill from E. coli infections linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder hamburgers in 10 states, led by Colorado, where 26 people were sickened, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control said on Tuesday.

The E. coli outbreak, linked to one of McDonald’s most popular menu items, has sickened 49 people and sent 10 to the hospital, officials say.

The strain involved, E. coli O157:H7, can cause serious illness and was the source of a 1993 outbreak that killed four children who ate undercooked hamburgers at Jack in the Box restaurants.

Shares of the world’s largest fast-food chain were down about 6% in extended trading. A livestock trader said the outbreak also could pressure U.S. cattle futures on Wednesday by threatening demand for beef.

Everyone interviewed as part of an investigation into the outbreak has reported eating at McDonald’s before their illness started, and most mentioned eating a Quarter Pounder hamburger, according to the CDC.

The specific ingredient linked to the illness has not been identified but investigators are focused on fresh, slivered onions and fresh beef patties, the CDC said.

Most of the illnesses were reported in Colorado and Nebraska.

“The initial findings from the investigation indicate that a subset of illnesses may be linked to slivered onions used in the Quarter Pounder and sourced by a single supplier that serves three distribution centers,” McDonald’s North America Chief Supply Chain Officer Cesar Piña said in a statement.

McDonald’s has proactively removed the slivered onions and beef patties used for the Quarter Pounder hamburgers from stores in the affected states while the investigation continues, the company informed the CDC.

U.S. food safety attorney Bill Marler, who represented a victim in the Jack in the Box outbreak, said more cases of illness could surface. Onions have been linked to prior E. coli O157:H7 outbreaks, he said.

According to Marler, a founder of Marler Clark in Seattle, beef contamination is less common due to food safety measures. “You’d have to have multiple restaurants under-cooking the meat,” he said.

McDonald’s is temporarily removing the Quarter Pounder from restaurants in the impacted areas, including Colorado, Kansas, Utah and Wyoming, it said in a statement, adding it was working with suppliers to replenish supply in the coming week.

Symptoms for E. coli include severe stomach cramps, diarrhea and vomiting. Most people who suffer an infection will start feeling sick three to four days after eating or drinking something that contains the bacteria, Colorado’s public health department said. However, illnesses can start anywhere from one to 10 days after exposure, the department added.

In 2015, burrito chain Chipotle saw its sales battered and reputation hit due to E.coli outbreaks in several states. That outbreak was linked to a different strain of E. coli that typically causes less severe illness than E. coli O157:H7.

In addition to Colorado, the CDC said small clusters of a few people fell ill after eating a Quarter Pounder in Nebraska, Utah and Wyoming. Kansas, Missouri, Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin and Montana had one illness apiece.
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Ethiopia begins selling stakes in state-owned company

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Ethiopia’s state-owned telecommunications company has started selling shares to the public, in a move aimed at establishing a new national stock market and giving Ethiopians a stake in the company, one of the country’s largest and most profitable.

Ethio Telecom will be the first company listed on the new Ethiopian Securities Exchange, or ESX, which is set to begin operating in November. It will be the country’s first stock market since the 1970s.

Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said last Wednesday that the 130-year-old Ethio Telecom is offering 10% of its shares to the public, 100 million shares in all.

Investors, who must be Ethiopian nationals, can buy up to 3,333 shares of the company at a price of 300 birr, or about $2.50 per share.  

CEO Frehiwot Tamiru said the company will now be called Ethio Telecom PLC.

“Today marks a significant milestone as we launch the sale of Ethio Telecom shares, an essential step in our ongoing journey from political revolution to evolution over the past six years,” Abiy said in a post on X.

He said offering the shares lays “the groundwork for Ethiopia’s stock market and expanding access to ownership in one of the nation’s leading state-owned enterprises, which has now evolved into a share company.”

Ethiopia, once a communist country aligned with the Soviet Union, has gradually allowed greater foreign investment and has slowly privatized state companies, though the government still owns and controls key banking, telecom and transportation firms.

Not everyone sees the sale of Ethio Telecom shares as a sure winner for the Ethiopian public. Ethiopian economist and the executive director of Initiative Africa, Kibur Gena, is concerned that only wealthy Ethiopians will be able to invest in the company.

“This raises questions, in my opinion, of fairness and inclusivity,” he said.  “Such a move might provide, of course, immediate financial benefits to the government; it could also perpetuate inequalities in wealth distribution and restrict, of course, broader public participation in national assets.”

Kibur argues that this approach to privatization could lead to a “deeper wealth gap” and make it harder for the majority of Ethiopians to gain access to economic opportunities.’

“This would certainly contradict the principles of economic equity, which many argue that, when you sell public assets or public resources, they should be distributed more widely to ensure that economic benefits reach marginalized or less affluent groups.”

Ethio Telecom sees it differently.  To help ensure that the share sale is inclusive, investors can buy as few as 33 shares, purchasable for 9,900 birr ($82), according to a company post on Facebook.

However, many Ethiopians don’t even earn $82 in a month, according to World Bank data.

Asked why the privatization of state companies have been slow in Ethiopia, Kibur said it can be seen as a “pragmatic strategy to protect national development goals” and “maintain economic sovereignty.”

“In many ways, privatization may eventually happen and it is happening,’’ he said. ‘’Many economists would argue that it should be done gradually with strong regulatory frameworks in place so that it can ensure that it contributes to long-term development and social stability rather than short-term market efficiency.”

Abiy said Ethio Telecom generated about $829 million in revenue and $239 million in profit during 2023, noting the amount is the most income generated for the state, compared to all other domestic and foreign companies operating in Ethiopia, including commercial banks, combined.

“We are doing this so that people could have confidence in it and join the stock market but it would have continued to be profitable even if we didn’t sell shares,” the prime minister said.

Abiy hinted the government may offer more stakes for sale.

“The sale of shares that we started with Ethio Telecom may continue with Ethiopian Airlines, with hotels and other sectors,” he said.

This story originated in VOA’s Horn of Africa Service. 
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Polio resurfaces in Ivory Coast, threatening country’s children

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Health officials say there have been six cases of polio reported in Ivory Coast in 2023, and one so far this year. It doesn’t seem like many, but any polio cases are cause for concern among health officials trying to completely eradicate the disease.  VOA’s Yassin Ciyow reports from Abidjan, in this story narrated by Anthony LaBruto. (Camera: Yassin Ciyow )
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IMF’s economic view: A brighter outlook for US but still-tepid global growth 

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Washington — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday upgraded its economic outlook for the United States this year, while lowering its expectations for growth in Europe and China. It left its forecast for global growth unchanged at a relatively lackluster 3.2% for 2024. 

The IMF expects the U.S. economy — the world’s largest — to expand 2.8% this year, down slightly from 2.9% in 2023 but an improvement on the 2.6% it had forecast for 2024 back in July. Growth in the United States has been led by strong consumer spending, fueled by healthy gains in inflation-adjusted wages. 

Next year, though, the IMF expects the U.S. economy to decelerate to 2.2% growth. With a new presidential administration and Congress in place, the IMF envisions the nation’s job market losing some momentum in 2025 as the government begins seeking to curb huge budget deficits by slowing spending, raising taxes or some combination of both. 

The IMF, a 190-nation lending organization, works to promote economic growth and financial stability and reduce global poverty. In its latest forecast, it expects China’s economic growth to slow from 5.2% last year to 4.8% this year and 4.5% in 2025. The world’s No. 2 economy has been hobbled by a collapse in its housing market and by weak consumer confidence — problems only partly offset by strong exports. 

The 20 European countries that share the euro currency are collectively expected to eke out 0.8% growth this year, twice the 2023 expansion of 0.4% but a slight downgrade from the 0.9% the IMF had forecast three months ago for 2024. The German economy, hurt by a slump in manufacturing and real estate, isn’t expected to grow at all this year. 

Worldwide inflation has been cooling — from 6.7% in 2023 to a forecast 5.8% this year and 4.3% in 2025. It’s falling even faster in the world’s wealthy countries, from 4.6% last year to a forecast 2.6% this year and 2% — the target range for most major central banks — in 2025. The progress against inflation has allowed the Fed and the European Central Bank to finally reduce rates after they had aggressively raised them to combat the post-COVID-19 inflation surge. 

But just as lower borrowing costs aid the world’s economies, the IMF warned, the need to contain enormous government deficits will likely put a brake on growth. The overall world economy is expected to grow 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, down a tick from 3.3% last year. That’s an unimpressive standard: From 2000 through 2019, before the pandemic upended economic activity, global growth had averaged 3.8% a year. 

The IMF also continues to express concern that geopolitical tension, including antagonism between the United States and China, could make world trade less efficient. The concern is that more countries would increasingly do business with their allies instead of seeking the lowest-priced or best-made foreign goods. Still, global trade, measured by volume, is expected to grow 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2025, improving on 2023’s anemic 0.8% increase. 

India’s economy is expected to 7% this year and 6.5% in 2025. While still strong, that pace would be down from 8.2% growth last year, a result of consumers slowing their spending after a post-pandemic boom. 

The IMF predicts that Japan’s economy, hurt by production problems in the auto industry and a slowdown in tourism, will expand by a meager 0.3% this year before accelerating to 1.1% growth in 2025. 

The United Kingdom is projected to register 1.1% growth this year, up from a dismal 0.3% in 2023, with falling interest rates helping spur stronger consumer spending.
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Lower-priced new cars are gaining popularity, and not just for cash-poor buyers

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Detroit — Had she wanted to, Michelle Chumley could have afforded a pricey new SUV loaded with options. But when it came time to replace her Chevrolet Blazer SUV, for which she’d paid about $40,000 three years ago, Chumley chose something smaller. And less costly.  

With her purchase of a Chevrolet Trax compact SUV in June, Chumley joined a rising number of buyers who have made vehicles in the below-average $20,000-to-$30,000 range the fastest-growing segment of the nation’s new-auto market.  

“I just don’t need that big vehicle and to be paying all of that gas money,” said Chumley, a 56-year-old nurse who lives outside Oxford, Ohio, near Cincinnati.  

Across the industry, auto analysts say, an “affordability shift” is taking root. The trend is being led by people who feel they can no longer afford a new vehicle that would cost them roughly today’s average selling price of more than $47,000 — a jump of more than 20% from the pre-pandemic average.  

To buy a new car at that price, an average buyer would have to spend $737 a month, if financed at today’s average loan rate of 7.1%, for just under six years before the vehicle would be paid off, according to Edmunds.com, an auto research and pricing site. For many, that is financially out of reach.  

Yet there are other buyers who, like Chumley, could manage the financial burden but have decided it just isn’t worth the cost. And the trend is forcing America’s automakers to reassess their sales and production strategies. With buyers confronting inflated prices and still-high loan rates, sales of new U.S. autos rose only 1% through September over the same period last year. If the trend toward lower-priced vehicles proves a lasting one, more generous discounts could lead to lower average auto prices and slowing industry profits.  

“Consumers are becoming more prudent as they face economic uncertainty, still-high interest rates and vehicle prices that remain elevated,” said Kevin Roberts, director of market intelligence at CarGurus, an automotive shopping site. “This year, all of the growth is happening in what we would consider the more affordable price buckets.”  

Under pressure to unload their more expensive models, automakers have been lowering the sales prices on many such vehicles, largely by offering steeper discounts. In the past year, the average incentive per auto has nearly doubled, to $1,812, according to Edmunds. General Motors has said it expects its average selling price to drop 1.5% in the second half of the year.  

Through September, Roberts has calculated, new-vehicle sales to individual buyers, excluding sales to rental companies and other commercial fleets, are up 7%. Of that growth, 43% came in the $20,000-to-$30,000 price range — the largest share for that price category in at least four years. (For used vehicles, the shift is even more pronounced: 59% sales growth in the $15,000-to-$20,000 price range over that period.)  

Sales of compact and subcompact cars and SUVs from mainstream auto brands are growing faster than in any year since 2018, according to data from Cox Automotive.  

The sales gains for affordable vehicles is, in some ways, a return to a pattern that existed before the pandemic. As recently as 2018, compact and subcompact vehicles — typically among the most popular moderately priced vehicles — had accounted for nearly 35% of the nation’s new vehicle sales.  

The proportion started to fall in 2020, when the pandemic caused a global shortage of computer chips that forced automakers to slow production and allocate scarce semiconductors to more expensive trucks and large SUVs. As buyers increasingly embraced those higher-priced vehicles, the companies posted robust earnings growth.  

In the meantime, they deemed profit margins for lower-prices cars too meager to justify significant production of them. By 2022, the market share of compact and subcompact vehicles had dropped below 30%.  

This year, that share has rebounded to nearly 34% and rising. Sales of compact sedans were up 16.7% through September from 12 months earlier. By contrast, CarGurus said, big pickups rose just under 6%. Sales of large SUVs are barely up at all — less than 1%.  

Ford’s F-Series truck remains the top-selling vehicle in the United States this year, as it has been for nearly a half-century, followed by the Chevrolet Silverado. But Stellantis’ Ram pickup, typically No. 3, dropped to sixth place, outpaced by several less expensive small SUVs: the Toyota RAV4, the Honda CR-V and the Tesla Model Y (with a $7,500 U.S. tax credit).  

The move in buyer sentiment toward affordability came fast this year, catching many automakers off guard, with too-few vehicles available in lower price ranges. One reason for the shift, analysts say, is that many buyers who are willing to plunk down nearly $50,000 for a new vehicle had already done so in the past few years. People who are less able — or less willing — to spend that much had in many cases held on to their existing vehicles for years. The time had come for them to replace them. And most of them seem disinclined to spend more than they have to.  

With loan rates still high and average auto insurance prices up a whopping 38% in the past two years, “the public just wants to be a little more frugal about it,” said Keith McCluskey, CEO of the dealership where Chumley bought her Trax.  

Roberts of CarGurus noted that even many higher-income buyers are choosing smaller, lower-priced vehicles, in some cases because of uncertainties over the economy and the impending presidential election.  

The shift has left some automakers overstocked with too many pricier trucks and SUVs. Some, like Stellantis, which makes Chrysler, Jeep and Ram vehicles, have warned that the shift will eat into their profitability this year.  

At General Motors’ Chevrolet brand, executives had foreseen the shift away from “uber expensive” vehicles and were prepared with the redesigned Trax, which came out in the spring of 2023, noted Mike MacPhee, director of Chevrolet sales operations.  

Trax sales in the U.S. so far this year are up 130%, making it the nation’s top-selling subcompact SUV.  

“We’re basically doubling our (Trax) sales volume from last year,” MacPhee said.   

How long the preference for lower-priced vehicles may last is unclear. Charlie Chesbrough, chief economist for Cox Automotive, notes that the succession of expected interest rates cuts by the Federal Rates should eventually lead to lower auto loan rates, thereby making larger vehicles more affordable.  

“The trends will probably start to change if these interest rates start coming down,” Chesbrough predicted. “We’ll see consumers start moving into these larger vehicles.” 
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New mpox variant detected in Germany 

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Berlin — An infection with the new mpox variant clade 1b has been detected in Germany for the first time, the Robert Koch Institute health authority said on Tuesday.  

The infection occurred abroad and was detected last Friday, the institute said, adding that it did not see an increased risk for Germany but was “monitoring the situation very closely.”  

Mpox, a viral disease related to smallpox that causes fever, body aches, swollen lymph nodes and a rash that forms into blisters, has two main subtypes — clade 1 and clade 2.  

From May 2022, clade 2 spread around the world, mostly affecting gay and bisexual men in Europe and the United States. In July 2022, the WHO declared an international public health emergency, its highest level of alarm over the spread.  

Vaccination and awareness drives in many countries helped stem the number of worldwide cases and the WHO lifted the emergency in May 2023 after reporting 140 deaths out of roughly 87,400 cases.  

But this year, a new epidemic has broken out in the Democratic Republic of Congo.  

As well as clade 1, which mainly affects children, a new strain emerged in the DRC, called clade 1b.  

Clade 1b cases have also been recorded in nearby Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda — none of which had previously detected mpox. The WHO declared another international emergency in August.
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China unveils first diagnosis guidelines to battle escalating obesity crisis

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HONG KONG — China’s National Health Commission (NHC) published its first set of guidelines to standardize the diagnosis and treatment of obesity, with more than half of China’s adults already overweight and obese, and the rate expected to keep rising.

The guidelines, made public on October 17, come as China experiences an upward morbidity trend of its overweight and obese population. The rate of overweight or obese people could reach 65.3% by 2030, the NHC said.

“Obesity has become a major public health issue in China, ranking as the sixth leading risk factor for death and disability in the country,” the guidelines said.

China is facing a twin challenge that feeds its weight problem: In a modernizing economy underpinned by technological innovation, more jobs have become static or desk-bound, while a prolonged slowdown in growth is forcing people to adopt cheaper, unhealthy diets.

Job stress, long work hours and poor diets are growing high-risk factors in the cities, while in rural areas, agriculture work is becoming less physically demanding and inadequate healthcare is leading to poor screening and treatment of weight problems, doctors and academics say.

The guidelines provide guidance and regulations including in clinical nutrition, surgical treatment, behavioral and psychological intervention, and exercise intervention for obesity, Zhang Zhongtao, director of the guideline drafting committee and deputy head of Beijing Friendship Hospital, told the official Xinhua news agency.

China’s NHC and 15 other government departments in July launched public awareness efforts to fight obesity. The campaign, set to last for three years, is built around eight slogans: “lifelong commitment, active monitoring, a balanced diet, physical activity, good sleep, reasonable targets and family action.”

Health guidelines were distributed to primary and secondary schools in July urging regular screening, daily exercise, hiring nutritionists and implementing healthy eating habits – including lowering salt, oil and sugar.

Obesity in China is an “unintended consequence of improving living standards in the country,” Xinhua said, after China struggled for centuries to feed its population and under-nourishment was a genuine concern for many families before the reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.
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